US PPI beat forecasts but hardly changes expectations from Fed

Expert market comment from Alex Kuptsikevich of the FxPro Analyst Team: US PPI beat forecasts but hardly changes expectations from Fed
FxPro | 951 ngày trước

US PPI beat forecasts but hardly changes expectations from Fed

US producer prices rose 0.4% m/m, stronger than 0.2% as expected. The annual inflation rate remains on a slowing trend at 8.5% in September compared to 8.7% a month earlier.

The core price index slowed from 7.3% y/y to 7.2%, although no change was expected.

A higher-than-expected producer price trajectory often leads to higher consumer price inflation. Thus, traders can now expect a higher than 8.1% y/y growth rate from tomorrow's publication.

Although inflation is clearly on the trajectory desired by the markets and the Fed, its deceleration is slower than expected. Another positive surprise from inflation is fuelling speculation that the US central bank will raise the interest rate by 75 points for the fourth consecutive time in early November.

According to CME's FedWatch tool, the rate futures market estimates the chance of this move at 83.3% - slightly higher than previous peaks last Friday after the jobs report was released.

In our view, the report is neutral, and much of the expected tightening is already embedded in exchange-traded asset prices. Nevertheless, this is hardly a reason for complete complacency ahead of tomorrow's CPI report.

 

By the FxPro Analyst Team 

Cơ quan quản lý: FCA (UK), SCB (The Bahamas)
read more
ATFX Market Outlook 21st May 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 21st May 2025

On Tuesday, Federal Reserve officials warned that U.S. tariff hikes could drive prices higher, though it remains unclear whether the impact on inflation will be short-lived or persistent. U.S. stocks declined, ending the S&P 500’s six-day rally, as rising Treasury yields and concerns over sovereign debt weighed on market sentiment.
ATFX | 2h 37phút trước
Dollar Falls, Pound Gains: May 15, 2025

Dollar Falls, Pound Gains: May 15, 2025

Global financial markets on May 20, 2025, are driven by central bank actions and geopolitical developments, with focus on the RBA’s press conference post-rate cut, PBoC’s LPR reduction, and potential Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks.
Moneta Markets | 18h 7phút trước
Dollar continues to struggle

Dollar continues to struggle

Dollar loses ground as risk-on momentum slightly fades; Focus today on Fedspeak and likely trade developments; RBA cuts rates again, aussie suffers; Gold range trades despite constructive Trump-Putin call;
XM Group | 20h 28phút trước