Is Vietnam’s Export Surge a Golden Opportunity, or a Ticking Clock?

Vietnam’s exports are making headlines for all the right reasons in 2025. From tropical fruits and premium coconuts to seafood and sustainable wood products, the country is fast becoming a key player in the global trade arena. But for all the momentum, not everything is moving as smoothly as the numbers suggest.

At EBC, we continue to track not just the upside of trade flows, but also the operational cracks that tend to form when growth outpaces infrastructure. And in Vietnam’s case, that imbalance is starting to surface in ways that traders can no longer ignore.

Strong Demand Meets Friction at the Border

The first seven months of 2025 saw Vietnam’s fruit and vegetable exports exceed USD3.8 billion, with durians, coconuts, dragon fruit, and lychees contributing heavily to the surge. Durian alone brought in USD3.3 billion in 2024, and added another USD360 million in June this year. Coconuts, once overshadowed by regional peers, have also gained significant ground, with average export prices rising from USD1.21 per kilogramme in 2022 to USD7.26 this year, thanks in part to growing demand in Korea and the Middle East for natural, plant-based beverages.

Despite these gains, delays in export certification are undermining performance. According to VietnamNet Global, more than 100 tonnes of GlobalGAP-certified dragon fruit spoiled after 20 days in storage while awaiting regulatory clearance. A further 50–70 tonnes remain in cold warehouses with no export green light. In one notable case, Son Tra Co. in Lam Đồng was forced to discard 40 tonnes, and cut prices on an additional 50 tonnes to just VND 1,000–2,000 per kilogramme, far below the VND 20,000/kg typically secured for EU shipments.

The losses are not due to a lack of market interest, but a breakdown in process — a risk traders must account for when navigating Vietnam’s high-potential but time-sensitive agricultural exports.

Vietnam’s Logistics Gap Is Catching Up

The root of the issue is not excess supply, but regulatory lag. The country’s export certification framework is increasingly stretched, unable to keep up with the volume and urgency of outbound trade. This results in what EBC identifies as “last-mile bottlenecks,” where commodities are ready to ship, yet remain grounded by delays in documentation, compliance checks, or border coordination.

As David Barrett, CEO of EBC Financial Group (UK) Ltd., notes:“Vietnam is clearly winning in terms of trade visibility and sectoral growth. But traders must watch both the growth story and the friction points. The country's booming exports are becoming increasingly segmented — what's thriving abroad may still stumble at the border.”

This segmentation is already evident across categories, particularly in perishable goods where delivery delays translate quickly into lost revenue.

Seafood Rises, but Reliance on China Grows

While agriculture faces structural hurdles, seafood is rebounding at pace. Between January and June 2025, Vietnam’s shrimp exports to China (including Hong Kong) reached nearly USD595 million, representing a year-on-year increase of over 80%. This shift marks a turning point, with China overtaking the United States as Vietnam’s largest shrimp buyer for the first time.

Momentum is being supported by reopened trade routes, stabilising prices, and a reduction in non-tariff barriers. However, for traders, the growing reliance on China brings with it heightened exposure to policy shifts and import regulation changes — factors that must be tracked closely when structuring positions or planning supply chain routes.

Sustainable Wood: A Quiet, Certified Success

Amid the high-velocity trade stories, Vietnam’s wood sector continues to deliver quietly consistent results. The first half of 2025 saw wood exports reach USD8.21 billion, reflecting an 8.9% year-on-year rise. The U.S. accounted for 55.6% of shipments, followed by Japan and China, highlighting Vietnam’s strength in established markets.

What sets this sector apart is its alignment with environmental, social, and governance (ESG) priorities. A growing number of exporters have adopted FSC (Forest Stewardship Council) certification, enabling them to access ESG-sensitive markets and secure premiums across categories like furniture, MDF boards, and other processed wood products. For traders looking to balance growth potential with sustainability credentials, Vietnam’s wood exports remain a strong contender.

Europe Tightens the Screws on Compliance

However, not all markets are opening up. The European Union is intensifying its import requirements, particularly for agricultural products. New directives around pesticide thresholds, origin traceability, and cold-chain documentation are being enforced, and Vietnam has responded by introducing updated export regulations to avoid trans-shipment violations.

While these measures aim to protect long-term access to EU markets, the short-term impact is friction. Delays in clearance, inconsistencies in implementation, and evolving documentation standards all add risk to the export cycle. Traders engaging with EU-bound goods must factor in longer lead times, cost variability, and heightened compliance review windows as part of their operating assumptions.

Risk and Reward Must Be Weighed Together

Vietnam’s export trajectory is impressive, and its position in the global supply chain is strengthening. Yet the risks tied to documentation, logistics, and shifting regulations cannot be ignored. What looks like a booming trade story on the surface can, in some cases, mask instability in the supporting processes.

For traders operating in soft commodities, agriculture futures, or ESG-linked markets, the challenge is to stay ahead of these friction points. Certification backlogs, customs inconsistencies, and cross-border compliance are no longer secondary concerns — they’re central to the trade viability equation.

EBC continues to monitor these developments in real time, so our clients can move with agility, price in hidden costs, and act on opportunity when market conditions align.

Disclaimer: This article reflects the observations of EBC Financial Group and all its global entities. It is not financial or investment advice. Trading in commodities and foreign exchange (FX) involves significant risk of loss, potentially exceeding your initial investment. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making any trading or investment decisions, as EBC Financial Group and its entities are not liable for any damages arising from reliance on this information.