ATFX Market Outlook 12th September 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 12th September 2025

Wall Street Breaks Records as Rate-Cut Bets Defy Mixed Inflation & Jobs Data

Market HighlightUS August CPI rose at the fastest pace in seven months, while initial jobless claims jumped to a near four-year high. Even so, Wall Street closed at record highs on Thursday, boosted by gains in Tesla and Micron, and reinforced expectations for a Fed rate cut this month. The Dow rose 1.36%, the S&P 500 0.85%, and the Nasdaq 0.72%—all ending at all-time highs. As data strengthened bets on a cut next week, the US Dollar softened: the DXY slipped 0.3% to 97.51, and EUR/USD climbed 0.4% to 1.1738.

Weak US labor data outweighed concerns over hotter inflation, keeping investors positioned for a Fed reduction next week. Spot gold held near the highs, edging down 0.2% overnight. Crude fell about 2% on worries about softer US demand, despite ongoing Middle East supply risks.

Key Outlook

Focus shifts to the UK’s July GDP. Consensus looks for +1.6% YoY (prior +1.4%). Another upside surprise could ease budget concerns and inform Bank of England policy. Markets expect rates to be on hold this month, though cuts later this year remain possible.

Key Data and Events Today:

14:00 EU GERMANY CPI YoY Final AUG **  

14:00 GB GDP MoM JUL *** 

14:00 GB Industrial Production MoM JUL ** 

22:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel SEP **

Key Data and Events Coming Week:

Monday: CN Retail Sales & Industrial Production, EU Balance of Trade, US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index

Tuesday: GB Unemployment Rate, EU Industrial Production & ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, CA CPI, US Retail Sales, US Manufacturing & Industrial Production

Wednesday: API Crude Oil Stock Change, GB CPI, EU CPI, US Building Permits & Housing Starts, BoC Interest Rate Decision

Thursday: Fed Interest Rate Decision, AU Employment Change, BoE Interest Rate Decision, US  Initial Jobless Claims, US CB Leading Index

Friday: JP CPI, BoJ Interest Rate Decision, EU GERMANY PPI, GB Retail Sales

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1780/1.1794

· Support: 1.1688/1.1673

EUR/USD rose to 1.1738 as U.S. CPI hit 2.9% YoY (7-month high) while jobless claims surged to 263k, reinforcing Fed cut bets. The ECB held rates steady with an upbeat tone. Technically, price trades in a rising wedge above 1.1688 support; holding the trendline could see a retest of 1.1780 - 1.1794, while a break below 1.1688 would weaken the bullish bias.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3635/1.3660

· Support: 1.3517/1.3492

GBP/USD climbed to 1.3560 as fresh USD weakness followed softer job signals despite firm U.S. CPI at 2.9% YoY. Markets remain focused on the Fed’s Sep 17 decision, with a 25 bps cut fully priced in, while BoE cut odds have faded. Technically, price is holding above the 1.3517 support and trendline; maintaining this base favors upside toward 1.3635, while a break below 1.3517 could lead to further loss.

USDJPY

  Resistance: 147.72/148.05

· Support: 146.64/146.31

USD/JPY eased to 147.1 after soft U.S. labor data boosted Fed cut bets. Yen strength was limited as safe-haven demand stayed muted despite geopolitical risks. Technically, the pair is consolidating between 146.64 and 147.72; a breakout above 147.72 opens 148.50, while failure to hold could see a dip toward 146.0.

US Crude Oil Futures (OCT)

· Resistance: 63.21/63.74

· Support: 61.46/60.93

WTI fell over 2% to $62.37, pressured by IEA’s oversupply outlook and weaker U.S. demand signals, offsetting geopolitical risks. Technically, crude is testing support near $61.46; holding above this level could allow a rebound toward $63.21, but a breakdown risks deeper losses toward $60.00.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 3674/3698

· Support: 3626/3596

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 41.86/42.11

· Support: 41.01/40.81

Gold hovered at $3,634/oz near record highs, as weak U.S. labor data outweighed sticky CPI, reinforcing Fed cut bets. Technically, XAU/USD broke above a descending trendline, with support at $3,626. Holding this level could drive a retest of $3,674 ATH, while failure risks a pullback toward $3,600 psychological level.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 46350/46443

· Support: 45851/45758

The Dow Futures surged 1.36% to a record 46,108, lifted by Tesla and major banks, as a firm Fed cut expectations, bolstering sentiment. Technically, US30 broke above long-term trendline resistance, with support at 45,851. Sustained strength could target 46,350, while a pullback toward support would keep the uptrend intact.

NAS100

· Resistance: 24206/24357

· Support: 23821/23704

The NAS100 climbed 0.72% to a record high, supported by a 7.5% surge in Micron and ongoing AI optimism. Technically, price holds above 23,821 support with upside potential toward 24,206 if momentum sustains. A pullback to retest support could provide fresh buying opportunities.

BTC

· Resistance: 117421/118598

· Support: 113544/ 112347

BTC/USD steadied around $114.6k after August CPI rose 2.9% YoY and jobless claims surged to 263k. While the data complicated the Fed’s outlook, markets remain fully priced for a 25bp cut next week. Technically, Bitcoin trades in an ascending channel above 113,544 support, eyeing resistance at 117,421. A break higher could extend upside momentum, while failure to hold the channel risks a deeper pullback.

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