ATFX Market Outlook 21st July 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 21st July 2025

Wall Street Braces for Q2 Earnings and Tariff Turbulence

Market HighlightLast Friday, the U.S. dollar weakened, supported by dovish comments from the Federal Reserve, although some Fed officials remained cautious due to concerns about inflation. The dollar continued to trade on the softer side, with the euro rising over 0.26% against the greenback. However, gains were limited by weak eurozone consumer sentiment data. GBP/USD held steady near 1.3400 as markets priced in potential rate cuts following signs of softness in UK employment data. The yen approached multi-year lows against the dollar amid Japan’s elections and growing political uncertainty, which triggered a sell-off in bonds and rising yields.

Gold hovered near $3,360 per ounce as ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S.-China trade negotiations and the upcoming tariff deadline fuelled safe-haven demand. Markets are also closely watching Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech this week, with current expectations indicating no rate change at the July meeting. Oil prices remained stable, with U.S. crude futures at $67.4 per barrel, as concerns over global supply persisted due to EU sanctions on Russia. Geopolitical tensions also remained high, with Russia resisting sanctions and Iran engaged in nuclear negotiations under the threat of new sanctions.

Key Outlook

Later tonight, the U.S. will publish the June Conference Board Leading Economic Index, which is expected to fall again. The market consensus is for a -0.1% figure, indicating ongoing pessimism among U.S. businesses regarding the economic outlook. Meanwhile, investors will watch the ongoing corporate earnings season closely, with positive reports potentially providing a new catalyst for U.S. equities.

Key Data and Events Today: 

Japan Holiday 

09:00 CN 1-year & 5-year loan prime rate (LPR) **

20:30 CA PPI MoM JUN ** 

22:00 US CB Leading Index MoM JUN ** 

Tomorrow

09:30 RBA Meeting Minutes *** 

17:15 BOE Governor Andrew Bailey Speech *** 

20:30 Fed Chair Powell Speech *** 

22:00 Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index JUL ** 

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1682/1.1738

· Support: 1.1591/1.1545

EUR/USD climbed to 1.1621 on Friday amid a softer dollar and mild Eurozone optimism. However, gains were limited as Trump proposed a 15–20% tariff floor on EU goods. Technically, the price is consolidating near the descending trendline and Bollinger mid-band (1.1623). A break above could open the way towards the 1.1682 resistance level.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3431/1.3480

· Support: 1.3369/1.3320

GBP/USD remained steady at 1.3411 as weak UK labour data and expectations of a BoE rate cut kept bulls cautious. Trade tensions between the US and the EU added further pressure. Technically, the price is struggling to hold above the 1.3431 resistance and may retest the 1.3368 support if bearish momentum intensifies.

USDJPY

  Resistance: 148.37/148.78

· Support: 147.47/147.06

USD/JPY climbed to 148.75, gaining 0.93% on the week. Political uncertainty ahead of Japan’s upper house election and cautious sentiment over U.S.-Japan tariff talks limited demand for the safe-haven yen. Technically, price remains range-bound between 148.00 and 148.78; a breakout below 148.00 could expose support near 147.47.

US Crude Oil Futures (AUG)

· Resistance: 66.79/67.45

· Support 66.11/65.45

WTI crude settled at $67.34, down 0.3%, pressured by mixed U.S. data and a fragile demand outlook. EU sanctions on Russia raised supply risks, but U.S. tariff threats capped gains. Technically, the price broke below $66.79 and may retest it as resistance before sliding toward $65.45

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 3367/3377

· Support: 3336/3326

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 38.33/38.57

· Support 37.79/37.55

Gold increased by 0.4% to $3,353.25, supported by a weaker dollar and ongoing geopolitical risks. Markets remain cautious ahead of Fed policy decisions and trade deadlines. Technically, the price broke above the descending trendline and could retest the $3,336–$3,340 zone as support, with potential to rise towards $3,367.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 44496/44909

· Support: 44070/43551

The Dow futures slipped 0.32% to 44,342.19 as industrials weakened. 3 M plunged 3.7%, citing a greater tariff impact in H2. Technically, the price broke trendline support and is retesting the 44,496 resistance level; a rejection may trigger further downside toward 44,070.

NAS100

· Resistance: 23485/24040

· Support: 23050/22608

NAS100 rose 1.56%, reaching new record highs as investors dismissed concerns about tariffs. Crypto-related stocks outperformed after Congress approved key regulatory bills. Technically, the price remains above the trendline and 23,050, with a potential rise towards 23,485.

BTC

· Resistance: 118966/121140

· Support: 116322/114185

Bitcoin remains near $117,600 after last week’s surge above $123K, driven by optimism about “Crypto Week” legislation. The House approved three key bills, including the Genius Act, which has now been enacted into law. However, implementation could take more than a year. Technically, BTC is consolidating in a wedge pattern, with upside potential beyond $118,966 towards $121,140.

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