ATFX ​Market Outlook 24th July 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 24th July 2025

US-EU Trade Deal Progress in Focus, All Eyes on ECB’s Rate Pause Tonight

Market HighlightThe S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs on Wednesday, lifted by gains in Nvidia and GE Vernova, while optimism grew over a potential trade agreement between the US and the EU. The Dow rose 1.14%, the S&P 500 gained 0.78%, and the Nasdaq added 0.6%.

US Treasury prices fell as the US-Japan trade deal and hopes for a similar agreement with the EU boosted global equities, prompting investors to shift from bonds into stocks. The US Dollar Index dipped 0.14% to 97.33. The euro recovered from earlier losses, rising 0.08% to 1.17625 against the dollar.

Gold retreated from a five-week high after reports suggested the US and EU were nearing a deal involving a 15% tariff, dampening safe-haven demand. Meanwhile, silver briefly hit its highest level since September 2011. Spot gold fell 1.3% to $3,387.42/oz. Oil prices were little changed as traders assessed the latest US-Japan trade agreement and its implications for EU-US negotiations.

Key Outlook

Tonight, markets are focused on the European Central Bank’s rate decision. While uncertainty persists regarding the implementation of US tariff policies, the ECB is widely expected to pause its rate cuts, with the next move likely to be delayed until September. ECB President Christine Lagarde’s messaging will be key in shaping the euro’s direction and the performance of European equity markets.

Key Data and Events Today: 

07:00 AU Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash JUL ** 

08:30 JP Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash JUL **

11:05 RBA Governor Speech ***

14:00 EU Germany GfK Consumer Confidence AUG **

15:30 EU GERMANY Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash JUL **

16:00 EU Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash JUL **

16:30 GB Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash JUL **

20:15 ECB Interest Rate Decision ***

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***

20:45 ECB Press Conference ***

21:45 US Manufacturing & Services PMI PREL JUL ***

22:00 US New Home Sales JUN **

Tomorrow: 

14:00 GB Core Retail Sales JUN **

16:30 EU GERMANY Ifo Business Climate JULY **

20:30 US Durable Goods Orders PREL JUN **

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1789/1.1830

· Support: 1.1725/1.1693

The euro climbed to 1.1762, supported by optimism over a potential US-EU trade agreement reportedly involving a 15% tariff framework. Uncertainty remains as EU leaders await final approval from President Trump. Technically, EUR/USD remains in an ascending channel, with key support at 1.1725 and upside potential toward 1.1789 if the trend holds.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3626/1.3676

· Support: 1.3525/1.3462

GBP/USD holds gains near 1.3587 as the dollar stays weak on trade optimism. Bullish momentum persists after breaking trendline resistance and retesting the 1.3525 support level. Markets await UK and US PMI data for confirmation of the uptrend.

USDJPY

  Resistance: 147.07/147.47

· Support: 145.75/145.36

USDJPY slipped to 146.20 as rumors of Japanese PM Ishiba’s resignation dampened sentiment, offsetting US-Japan trade deal optimism. Technically, the price remains under a falling trendline, with resistance at 146.33 and 147.07, support at 145.75.

US Crude Oil Futures (SEP)

· Resistance: 66.12/66.79

· Support 64.80/63.97

WTI hovered near $65.44 after a larger-than-expected U.S. inventory draw. Optimism over a potential US-EU trade deal helped support prices, though upside remains capped under the descending trendline near $66.12.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 3408/3424

· Support: 3359/3344

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 39.51/39.76

· Support 38.88/38.69

Gold prices slipped to $3,387 as reports of a potential US-EU tariff agreement reduced geopolitical tension and dented safe-haven demand. Traders are now cautious ahead of the ECB decision and upcoming US data. Technically, gold broke below its ascending trendline support, with short-term pressure building toward the $3,359 level. A sustained break below this zone could open the door for deeper pullbacks.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 45149/45316

· Support: 44721/44591

The Dow surged to 45,010.29, up 1.14%, supported by GE Vernova’s breakout and easing trade tensions. The index is trading just below all-time highs, with bulls eyeing 45,149 as the next resistance. Technically, price broke above a long-term descending trendline and retested the 44,721 zone as new support, suggesting continued upside momentum.

NAS100

· Resistance: 23485/24040

· Support: 23050/22608

The NAS100 climbed 0.61% to 21,020.02, supported by Nvidia’s 2.25% gain and broad strength in AI and chip stocks. The index hit fresh highs despite ongoing tariff risks. Technically, the uptrend remains intact above 23,050, with bulls eyeing 23,485 as the next resistance.

BTC

· Resistance: 120407/121281

· Support: 117579/116691

BTC/USD is consolidating around $119,100, holding above key trendline support. Price is coiling beneath a descending resistance zone, with a breakout toward $120,407 in sight. Institutional momentum continues after Block joins the S&P 500 and Goldman Sachs/BNY Mellon expands tokenized fund access, although the SEC pause on Bitwise’s ETF conversion tempers bullish enthusiasm.

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