ATFX ​Market Outlook 25th July 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 25th July 2025

Resilient Data Lifts Dollar, AI Optimism Powers Wall Street to New Highs

Market HighlightUS initial jobless claims dropped to a three-month low last week, while June’s new home sales showed a slight rise. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs on Thursday, boosted by strong earnings from Google’s parent, Alphabet, which sparked optimism in other major AI-related stocks. Conversely, Tesla shares fell after the company reported disappointing earnings. The three main US indices were mixed: the Dow decreased by 0.7%, the S&P 500 edged up by 0.07%, and the Nasdaq rose by 0.18%.

US Treasury prices declined, buoyed by positive trade developments and strong economic data. The US dollar index ended a four-day decline. EUR/USD increased by 0.17% to 1.1786, approaching its three-year high of 1.1830. USD/JPY fell 0.07%, briefly reaching a two-week low.

Gold declined for a second consecutive session, as indications of easing global trade tensions diminished safe haven demand. Spot gold fell 0.6% to £ 3,367.81 per ounce. Oil prices increased by around 1%, supported by a larger-than-expected drop in US crude inventories and projected cuts in Russian petrol exports, which outweighed the news that Chevron may soon restart operations in Venezuela.

Key Outlook

The UK will publish June retail sales figures, which are expected to remain in negative territory, dampening hopes for an economic recovery. Germany will release its July IFO Business Climate Index—investors are watching to see if it extends its seven-month improvement streak. In the US, June durable goods orders are due; after a strong previous reading, the new figure may show signs of slowing volatility.

Key Data and Events Today: 

14:00 GB Retail Sales MoM JUN **  

16:00 EU GERMANY Ifo Business Climate JUL ** 

20:30 US Durable Goods Orders JUN **  

Key Data and Events Coming Week

Monday: US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

Tuesday: US JOLTs Job Openings, CB Consumer Confidence

Wednesday: API Crude Oil Stock Change, AU CPI, EU & GERMANY GDP, US GDP & ADP Employment Change,

BoC Interest Rate Decision

Thursday: Fed Interest Rate Decision, BoJ Interest Rate Decision, GERMANY Unemployment Rate & CPI, US Core PCE Price Index, Initial Jobless Claims

Friday: JP Unemployment Rate, AU PPI, EU/GB/US Manufacturing PMI Final, EU CPI, US Non-Farm Payrolls, ISM

Manufacturing PMI, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1789/1.1830

· Support: 1.1725/1.1693

EUR/USD increased to 1.1786 after the ECB rate remained unchanged, supported by signs of progress in US-EU trade talks and resilient German PMI data. However, the price faced resistance near 1.1789 and has begun to pull back. A decline below 1.1740 could lead to 1a test of 1.1725.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3575/1.3626

· Support: 1.3462/1.3411

GBP/USD declined to 1.3499 after weak UK PMI data, ending a 3-day rally. Attention now turns to UK June retail sales, projected to recover from -2.7% to 1.2%. Technically, the price is pulling back to the support near 1.3462; staying above this level could boost a rebound towards 1.3575. Otherwise, a further decline might occur.

USDJPY

  Resistance: 147.88/148.38

· Support: 146.26/145.75

Tokyo CPI cooled to 2.9% YoY in July, slightly missing forecasts. Despite easing inflation, USD/JPY remained resilient. On the chart, the pair broke above the descending trendline and is now trading above 147.40. Bulls aim for resistance at 147.88, with support at 146.26 holding.

US Crude Oil Futures (SEP)

· Resistance: 66.79/67.45

· Support: 65.46/64.80

WTI hovered around $66.20 after reducing gains. Reports that Trump may permit Chevron to restart oil operations in Venezuela limited bullish momentum. Technically, the price tests a descending trendline. A breakout above $66.79 could confirm a further upside towards $67.45.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 3389/3408

· Support: 3359/3344

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 39.31/39.51

· Support 38.88/38.69

Gold fell to $3,370 as safe-haven demand decreased amid easing trade tensions and rising equities. Technically, XAU/USD is testing the ascending trendline support. If $3,359 holds, a rebound towards $3,389 may occur; otherwise, a break below $3,344 could indicate a deeper decline.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 45015/45149

· Support: 44591/44460

The Dow fell 0.70% to 44,693.91, weighed down by Tesla's 8.2% decline following disappointing earnings and the DOJ's scrutiny of UnitedHealth. Technically, Dow futures still track an upward channel. As long as 44,591 holds, bulls may attempt to retest 45,015 resistance; a break below could lead to a larger pullback.

NAS100

· Resistance: 23485/24040

· Support: 23050/22608

NAS100 rose 0.18% to 21,057.96, driven by Alphabet's upbeat earnings and investor enthusiasm in AI stocks. Technically, the index is in a well-defined ascending channel. Bulls remain in control above 23,050 with scope to test 23,485 next.

BTC

· Resistance: 119006/119780

· Support: 116514/115729

Bitcoin fell to $117,600 (-0.59%) as MicroStrategy announced plans to increase its STRC stock offering from $500M to $2B to buy more Bitcoin. The firm now aims for 1 million BTC, boosting both optimism and leverage concerns. Technically, the price consolidates in a triangle; key levels are $119,006 (resistance) and $116,514 (support).

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please ensure that you understand the risk.

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