ATFX Market Outlook 3rd September 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 3rd September 2025

Gold hits record, surges 1.6% as budget woes push the pound to a 3.5-week low.Market HighlightU.S. stocks closed lower on Tuesday, with the U.S. manufacturing sector contracting for the sixth consecutive month in August, as investors assessed the outlook for President Trump's tariff policy after a federal appeals court ruled that most of his broadly imposed tariffs were illegal. Investors also awaited Friday's monthly U.S. jobs report. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.55%, the S&P 500 declined 0.69%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.82%.

The U.S. dollar rebounded slightly yesterday, with traders watching Friday's U.S. jobs report for signals on the greenback's next move. The British pound hit a 3.5-week low against the dollar and was last down 1.12% at 1.3393. The dollar rose 0.84% against the yen to 148.40, reaching its highest level since August 1. The euro fell 0.61% against the dollar to 1.1637.

Gold increased by more than 1% yesterday, soaring to a record high above $3,500 per ounce, as investors poured into the precious metal amid growing confidence in Federal Reserve rate cuts and ongoing political and economic risks. Spot gold settled at $3,532.93 an ounce, up 1.6%. Oil prices closed higher after the United States imposed sanctions targeting Iran's oil revenue stream. Ahead of Sunday's OPEC+ meeting, analysts expected the group not to lift its remaining voluntary production cuts.

Key Outlook

Monitor the EU and GB service sector PMIs today to assess growth. Watch the Eurozone's July PPI, expected to slow to 0.2% MoM (down from 0.8%), indicating easing inflationary pressures. Tonight, watch US July factory orders, forecast to improve to -1.4% (from -4.8%), and JOLTs job openings, which may influence the upcoming US employment data outlook. Tomorrow morning, check the Federal Reserve's Beige Book on US economic growth, inflation, and the labour market.

Key Data and Events Today:

14:00 RBA Governor Speaks *** 

15:55 EU GERMANY Services & Composite PMI Final AUG **

16:00 EU Services & Composite PMI Final AUG **

16:30 GB Services & Composite PMI Final AUG **

17:00 EU PPI JUL **

22:00 US Factory Orders & JOLTs Job Openings JUL ***  

Key Data and Events Tomorrow:

02:00 Fed Beige Book *** 

04:30 API Crude Oil Stock Change ***

17:00 EU Retail Sales JUL **

20:15 US ADP Employment Change AUG *** 

20:30 US Jobless Claims *** 

21:45 US Services & & Composite PMI Final AUG **

22:00 US ISM Services PMI AUG ***

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1697/1.1717

· Support: 1.1596/1.1571

The eurozone's inflation rate rose slightly in August, leading to expectations that the ECB will maintain steady interest rates. However, the euro ended a three-day winning streak against the US dollar, recording its largest decline in over a week, with resistance around 1.1660. The euro may test the 1.1600 level, and today’s focus will be on the eurozone PPI performance.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3451/1.3470

· Support: 1.3327/1.3308

The market is concerned that the UK fiscal budget might hike taxes and hinder economic growth, causing multi-year highs in government bond yields in the UK and France. The pound has fallen to a three-and-a-half-week low against the US dollar, its biggest drop since late April. After dropping below 1.3400, investors are watching to see if the upward trend since August 1 can offer temporary relief. Some may also think about buying at a lower price after the recent decline.

USDJPY

  Resistance: 149.28/149.61

· Support: 148.21/147.95

USD/JPY is trading around 148.50 in the early Asian session on Wednesday as increased political uncertainty in Japan affects the yen. The yen has fallen for three consecutive days amid doubts over the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike. The US dollar reached its highest point against the yen since 1 August, with a significant single-day increase, peaking at around 149. This upward trend from early August might act as resistance to the current rebound. Market attention includes the upcoming US JOLTS Job Openings and the Fed Beige Book. These data will guide the dollar and influence the USDJPY. 

US Crude Oil Futures (OCT)

· Resistance: 66.76/67.37

· Support: 64.73/64.10

The U.S. imposed new sanctions on Iran's oil exports, and with OPEC+ likely maintaining its production cuts, international crude oil prices have risen, surpassing $66 for the first time since August 6. It remains to be seen if prices can sustain momentum towards the $66.76/67.37 range today.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 3564/3584

· Support: 3505/3479

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 41.19/41.39

· Support: 40.51/40.24

As investors sought safe havens amid uncertainties in US trade policy, concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence, and geopolitical tensions, gold demand surged. Spot gold rose for six consecutive days, hitting a new record high and reaching $3,540 during the session. It continues to trend upward, targeting resistance between $3,564 and $3,584.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 45482/45658

· Support: 44885/44657

The U.S. Court of Appeals ruled most of Trump's global tariffs illegal, increasing uncertainty and pressure on U.S. stocks. On Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped over 500 points but recovered most losses by late trading, hitting a low near 45,000, close to the 20-day moving average. A rebound requires surpassing the key resistance at the 10-day moving average near 45,300.

NAS100

· Resistance: 23475/23664

· Support: 23017/22867

Market concerns about the technology bubble and rising government deficits led to declines in large-cap tech stocks overnight. The Nasdaq opened lower, hitting its lowest point since August 20, but regained some ground in late trading, indicating potential technical support. Watch the key moving average above 23,400 for upside potential.

BTC

· Resistance: 113553/114748

· Support: 109686/108471

Bitcoin surged past $111,000 on Tuesday, driven by increased expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut this month. It traded around $111,110 after fluctuating between $107,274 and $109,243. The CME FedWatch shows an 89% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the September meeting, as traders await Friday’s August non-farm payrolls data, which could further boost easing expectations and support Bitcoin. Despite the rise, caution persists due to Bitcoin's drop from its mid-August peak of over $124,000. On the technical side, $113,553/$114,748 is the target resistance before reaching the last peak. 

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