ATFX Market Outlook 5th June 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 5th June 2025

Disappointing U.S. Jobs Data Roils Markets — ECB to Set Tone Next

Market HighlightThe ADP report showed that U.S. private payrolls rose by only 37,000 in May, far below the expected 110,000. The Fed Book noted that higher tariffs are adding to inflationary pressures while overall economic activity has slowed. Major U.S. equity indices closed mixed on Wednesday: The S&P 500 was flat, the Nasdaq edged higher, and the Dow fell as weak data highlighted the economic toll of President Trump's trade policies. The Dow was down 0.22%, the S&P 500 was little changed, and the Nasdaq gained 0.32%.

U.S. Treasury yields dropped sharply after data revealed a weaker-than-expected labor market and a surprise contraction in the services sector. The U.S. dollar fell broadly, returning to its lowest level in six weeks. The ADP miss underscored the ongoing softening in the labor market, while the May ISM Services PMI showed the first contraction in nearly a year. The U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.3% to 98.838.

Gold rose 0.7% to $3,375.43, lifted by a weaker dollar and soft U.S. data amid growing economic and political uncertainty. Oil fell nearly 1% as increasing fuel inventories, OPEC+ output plans, and trade tensions weighed on demand.

Key Outlook

The European Central Bank will announce its rate decision tonight. A 25-basis-point cut is fully priced in, bringing borrowing costs down to 2.00%, the lowest level in over two years. Markets are now closely watching whether the ECB will signal a pause in further cuts, as expectations build that July could mark the first rate hold in over a year.

Key Data and Events Today:

14:00 EU German Factory Orders APR **

17:00 EU PPI APR ** 

20:15 ECB Interest Rate Decision *** 

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***

20:45 ECB Press Conference *** 

22:15 ECB President Lagarde Speaks *** 

Tomorrow

14:00 EU GERMANY Industrial Production and Trade Balance APR ** 

17:00 EU Retail Sales APR ** 

20:30 CA Unemployment Rate MAY ** 

20:30 US Non-Farm Payrolls MAY *** 

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1469 / 1.1501

· Support: 1.1388 / 1.1363

EUR/USD climbed to around 1.1424, supported by a weaker dollar after soft U.S. ADP jobs and ISM services data. The focus shifts to the ECB meeting today, where a 25-basis-point rate cut is widely expected. Technically, the pair holds within an ascending channel. Holding above 1.1388 keeps the upside bias toward 1.1501.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3592 / 1.3613

· Support: 1.3524 / 1.3502

GBP/USD rose to 1.3554, up 0.2% on the day, supported by U.S. tariff exemptions on UK steel and aluminum exports. Technically, the pair is trending higher than an ascending trendline. Holding 1.3524 support may open the path for a retest of the 1.3592 resistance.

USDJPY

· Resistance: 143.22 / 143.71

· Support: 142.12/141.64

The USD/JPY dropped 0.7% to 142.84 after May's ADP job gains disappointed at just 37,000 and the ISM services index fell into contraction territory at 49.9, reinforcing dovish Fed expectations. Technically, the pair is approaching the 142.12 support zone; if this level holds, a short-term rebound toward 143.22 and 143.71 remains possible.

US Crude Oil Futures (JULY)

· Resistance: 63.42/ 63.82

· Support: 61.80/ 61.42

WTI crude fell 0.9% to $62.73 as rising gasoline and diesel inventories, OPEC+’s planned 411K bpd output hike in July, and renewed trade tensions dampened the demand outlook. Technically, price is testing the 61.80 support zone. A break lower could trigger further downside, while a rebound may target resistance near the 63.82 resistance level.

Spot Gold

· Resistance: 3394/3412

· Support: 3366/3348

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 34.80/34.93

· Support: 34.38/34.25

Spot gold rose 0.8% to $3,377 per ounce, bolstered by widespread USD weakness and soft U.S. labor and services data, which has fueled demand for safe-haven assets. Technically, XAU/USD remains above the ascending trendline and has reclaimed the previous descending breakout. Resistance is situated at $3,394; a confirmed breakout may lead to a test of the $3,400 mark. Key short-term support lies at $3,366; a break below could trigger a deeper pullback into the prior retest zone.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 42843/43016

· Support: 42275/42100

Dow Futures slipped 0.22% to 42,412 as weak ADP and ISM data highlighted the drag from trade policy, weighing on cyclical sectors. Technically, price holds above the 42,275 support zone and remains within a wedge pattern. A break above the 42,843 resistance could revive upward momentum, while failure to hold support may lead to short-term pullbacks.

NAS100

· Resistance: 22171/22614

· Support: 21180/20730

NAS100 rose 0.32% to 19,460.49, supported by continued strength in tech and robust demand across AI-related sectors. Price remains within the ascending channel, with bulls eyeing a breakout above 22,170 to confirm further upside momentum.

 BTC

· Resistance: 106387/107714

· Support: 103730/102425

Bitcoin is trading just under $105,000 as it consolidates within a symmetrical triangle. The market awaits a breakout amid rising global catalysts, including a Trump-linked Bitcoin ETF filing, Russia and BRICS' de-dollarisation rhetoric, and Binance’s surge to 275 million users. Technically, a confirmed break above $106,387 could pave the way for $107,714. A breakdown below $103,730 risks testing the $102,425 support level.

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