The Pound fell too fast: likely to rebound

Expert market comment from senior analyst Alex Kuptsikevich of the FxPro Analyst Team: The Pound fell too fast: likely to rebound
FxPro | vor 644 Tagen

The British Pound lost ground against the Dollar for the fifth consecutive session, falling below the 1.2200 level. GBPUSD is down 4% since the beginning of the month, when pressure on the Pound intensified, and 7.3% from July's peak.

Fundamentally, the latest phase of the Pound's sell-off is due to the Bank of England's softer-than-expected response to the latest inflation report. The technical reason is the break below the 200-day moving average, which has prompted some key market participants to revise their long-term outlook.

The last time the GBPUSD was this oversold on the RSI was about a year ago. This indicator has fallen as low as 20% on a daily timeframe. Last year, it was only lower for three days at the end of September, followed by an impressive reversal.

However, the situation is not directly comparable. Then, there was a real exodus from the Pound, with a fall to historic lows of just over 1.03. The current decline is similar to what we saw in May 2018 or October 2016. GBPUSD then temporarily recovered 40-50% of the initial losses before resuming the downward movement.

From current levels, a corrective bounce in the Pound could take the pair back to 1.2320, an area of previous support with a high probability of becoming resistant. A more ambitious target for the bulls is 1.2430, with a 200-day moving average and two downward reversals, in December and in January.

By the FxPro Analyst Team

Vorschrift: FCA (UK), SCB (The Bahamas)
read more
ATFX Market Outlook 25th June 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 25th June 2025

Under pressure from U.S. President Trump, the fragile ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran took effect on Tuesday. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told lawmakers that tariff increases this summer could begin to push inflation higher, marking a critical period for the Fed’s consideration of rate cuts.
ATFX | vor 6 Tagen
ATFX Market Outlook 23rd June 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 23rd June 2025

For the week, the Dow was flat, the S&P 500 fell 0.2%, while the Nasdaq rose 0.2%. The uncertainty in the Middle East and its potential impact on the global economy pushed the U.S. Dollar Index to its largest weekly gain in over a month. The Federal Reserve noted that trade policies are still evolving, making it premature to assess the economic impact of tariffs.
ATFX | vor 8 Tagen
ATFX Market Outlook 20th June 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 20th June 2025

U.S. markets were closed on Thursday for the Juneteenth holiday, but the escalating airstrikes between Israel and Iran continued to stir markets. Reports indicate that former President Trump will decide within two weeks whether the U.S. will intervene, raising concerns over a broader conflict and boosting safe-haven sentiment.
ATFX | vor 11 Tagen