USD/JPY Experiences Renewed Decline as Market Adjusts Expectations

The USD/JPY pair is currently stabilising around 141.44 on Wednesday, following a brief strengthening of the US dollar which impacted the yen negatively the previous day. Despite this, the overarching downward trend for the pair persists.
RoboForex | 366 일 전

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair is currently stabilising around 141.44 on Wednesday, following a brief strengthening of the US dollar which impacted the yen negatively the previous day. Despite this, the overarching downward trend for the pair persists.

Tuesday witnessed strong US retail sales data, bolstering the dollar's strength temporarily and leading to a correction in the JPY. However, as the week progresses, attention is also turning towards the Bank of Japan (BoJ), which is holding its policy meeting alongside the Federal Reserve's gathering.

The baseline expectation is that the BoJ will maintain its interest rate unchanged. Nevertheless, signals might emerge from the meeting indicating a readiness to tighten monetary policy later in the year. With two more meetings scheduled before year-end, in October and December, investor anticipation is growing for a potential rate hike in December, although expectations for October remain very low.

Today's focus is heavily on the Fed, which is widely anticipated to cut rates by 50 basis points, marking the first rate reduction in four years. This significant move could impact global currency dynamics, including the USD/JPY pair.

Recent statistics from Japan showed only a minimal rise in imports over the past five months and subdued growth in exports for August, adding to the complex economic landscape.

Overall sentiment towards the yen remains positive, bolstered by the BoJ's cautious approach to gradually tightening monetary conditions.

Technical analysis of USD/JPY

The USD/JPY market has previously formed a consolidation range just below the level of 141.26, and with an upward breach of this range, the target at 142.42 was achieved. A corrective move to 141.22 has been established, and a further rise to 143.20 is anticipated. Upon reaching this peak, the potential for a new decline towards 137.77 will be considered. The MACD indicator supports this view, with the signal line below zero but pointing upwards, suggesting upward momentum in the short term.

On the H1 USD/JPY chart, following the completion of the corrective wave to 141.22, the market is expected to continue its upward trajectory towards 143.20. After achieving this level, a new decline to 141.20 is anticipated, with a breach below this level potentially signalling a continuation of the downward trend towards 137.77. The Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line above 20 and directed upwards, corroborates the likelihood of further upward movement before a potential reversal.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author's particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

RoboForex
종류: STP, ECN, Market Maker
규제: FSC (Belize)
read more
ATFX Market Outlook 19th September 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 19th September 2025

U.S. initial jobless claims fell last week, though the labor market continues to soften. Major U.S. equity indices closed at record highs, led by Intel’s surge after Nvidia announced a $5 billion investment. The Dow rose 0.27%, the S&P 500 gained 0.48%, and the Nasdaq advanced 0.94%.
ATFX | 20 시간 19 분 전
ATFX ​Market Outlook 18th September 2025

ATFX ​Market Outlook 18th September 2025

The Bank of England announced its policy decision later today. Markets widely expect no change in rates, but attention will be paid to policymakers’ assessment of recent data. Traders will be looking for signals on a potential rate cut in November, as U.K. inflation has rebounded toward 4%, while July GDP growth stalled and labor market conditions remain weak.
ATFX | 2 일 전
ATFX Market Outlook 17th September 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 17th September 2025

U.S. retail sales for August posted robust growth, but tariffs and labor market weakness continue to pose downside risks. All three major U.S. stock indices closed lower in choppy trading as investors remained cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s widely anticipated rate cut. The Dow Jones fell 0.27%, the S&P 500 slipped 0.13%, and the Nasdaq eased 0.07%.
ATFX | 3 일 전
USD/JPY Declines: Yen Gains Safe-Haven Appeal

USD/JPY Declines: Yen Gains Safe-Haven Appeal

The USD/JPY pair fell for a second consecutive session on Tuesday, with the Japanese yen strengthening to around 147.19 JPY per US dollar. The move reflects broad-based USD weakness and growing expectations of imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts.
RoboForex | 3 일 전
ATFX Market Outlook 12th September 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 12th September 2025

US August CPI rose at the fastest pace in seven months, while initial jobless claims jumped to a near four-year high. Even so, Wall Street closed at record highs on Thursday, boosted by gains in Tesla and Micron, and reinforced expectations for a Fed rate cut this month. The Dow rose 1.36%, the S&P 500 0.85%, and the Nasdaq 0.72%—all ending at all-time highs.
ATFX | 8 일 전