USDJPY outlook remains gloomy

USDJPY holds below key resistance levels as October’s session starts. Technical signals cannot warrant a bullish trend reversal.
XM Group | 351 days ago

 

USDJPY had a lackluster beginning to October, with a neutral close around its 20-day EMA and previously a rejection near the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 2023-2024 upleg at 144.50.

Currently, the pair is attempting to reach the 144.50 territory again, but there may be more hurdles to overcome. Another challenge could emerge somewhere between the broken support trendline at 145.30 and the 50-day EMA at 146.00, while higher, the bulls face a wall near September’s high of 147.20. If the latter proves easy to overcome, the spotlight might next shift to the 38.2% Fibonacci mark of 148.60 and then towards the 200-day EMA at 149.40.

Should the bears take control once more and push the price below its 20-day EMA at 143.60, there is a possibility of a new downward movement towards the 141.60 floor. Breaking lower, the pair could initially seek shelter around the critical 61.8% Fibonacci area of 140.35 and the 140.00 psychological mark. A failure to bounce back may result in a significant sell-off towards the 137.20-138.00 area, which was last seen in July 2023.  

While trend signals are stagnant, there is encouraging movement in technical indicators like the RSI and MACD, indicating bullish divergence. Yet, an imminent upside reversal in the price cannot be warranted as long as the RSI is still around its 50 neutral mark and the latter is hovering below zero.

Overall, the short-term outlook for USDJPY is not favorable. For the pair to resume its previous upward trajectory, it must successfully climb sustainably above 150.70. On the downside, a close below 140.00 could further worsen the bearish trend.

XM Group
Type: Market Maker
Regulation: CySEC (Cyprus), FSC (Belize), DFSA (UAE), FSCA (South Africa)
read more
ATFX ​Market Outlook 18th September 2025

ATFX ​Market Outlook 18th September 2025

The Bank of England announced its policy decision later today. Markets widely expect no change in rates, but attention will be paid to policymakers’ assessment of recent data. Traders will be looking for signals on a potential rate cut in November, as U.K. inflation has rebounded toward 4%, while July GDP growth stalled and labor market conditions remain weak.
ATFX | 22h 8min ago
ATFX Market Outlook 17th September 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 17th September 2025

U.S. retail sales for August posted robust growth, but tariffs and labor market weakness continue to pose downside risks. All three major U.S. stock indices closed lower in choppy trading as investors remained cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s widely anticipated rate cut. The Dow Jones fell 0.27%, the S&P 500 slipped 0.13%, and the Nasdaq eased 0.07%.
ATFX | 1 day ago
USD/JPY Declines: Yen Gains Safe-Haven Appeal

USD/JPY Declines: Yen Gains Safe-Haven Appeal

The USD/JPY pair fell for a second consecutive session on Tuesday, with the Japanese yen strengthening to around 147.19 JPY per US dollar. The move reflects broad-based USD weakness and growing expectations of imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts.
RoboForex | 2 days ago
ATFX Market Outlook 12th September 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 12th September 2025

US August CPI rose at the fastest pace in seven months, while initial jobless claims jumped to a near four-year high. Even so, Wall Street closed at record highs on Thursday, boosted by gains in Tesla and Micron, and reinforced expectations for a Fed rate cut this month. The Dow rose 1.36%, the S&P 500 0.85%, and the Nasdaq 0.72%—all ending at all-time highs.
ATFX | 6 days ago
ATFX Market Outlook 11th September 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 11th September 2025

U.S. producer prices unexpectedly declined in August, suggesting retailers may be absorbing tariff costs. Wall Street rallied, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing at record highs on Wednesday. Oracle surged 36%, its biggest one-day gain since 1992, while lower-than-expected inflation data reinforced expectations for a Fed rate cut next week. The Dow slipped 0.48%, the S&P 500 rose 0.3%
ATFX | 7 days ago
USD/JPY Pauses After Volatility: Assessing the Path Ahead

USD/JPY Pauses After Volatility: Assessing the Path Ahead

The USD/JPY pair consolidated around 147.32 JPY on Wednesday, following sharp fluctuations earlier in the week. Market participants are awaiting key US inflation data, which could significantly influence the Federal Reserve’s policy decision next week.
RoboForex | 8 days ago