EUR/USD

The attitude of the Greek rulers on the Greek debt seems to be, 'too big to care'.

The total debt of Greece amounts to 315 billion euros. The largest creditor is by far the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), which holds 44.9% of the total public debt. The second largest share, with 17.5% of the total, is in the hands of private investors in the form of sovereign bonds.

The EUR/USD under the pressure of the strong US Dollar and Monday most likely it will break below 1.1130.

Future is not predictable until it happens. We can only predict the chaos and volatility

Well the gauntlet has been thrown down by the creditors - no extension of the repayment due on Tuesday to allow for the referendum the following Sunday - big question now is (assuming there are no further twists) will the ECB support the Greek banks after Tuesday? I sense a few people running to the ATMs over there just now!



Sean

a misleading by news.. it is obviously a drama... a small country against all odds and no one take action?
usd went strong last week, while china did the rest takeover?
monday, 'payback' would come.. glory to gold!

Abdul2012 posted:
The EUR/USD under the pressure of the strong US Dollar and Monday most likely it will break below 1.1130.

We will see !

I think Greek banks will not open and so there will be high volatility through Monday and Tuesday. Consolidation through Wednesday and a new cycle of Volatility after GBP on Thursday. EUR/USD down to 1.10500 could bring out the bulls.

GBP on Thursday(damn spellchecker) not GBP.

My thoughts in this ever changing debate, for what it is worth, is that

There will have to be some capital controls imposed by Greece on its people now that it seems likely that the ECB will no longer provide the necessary liquidity.

Greece will default on its IMF loan repayment on Tuesday evening

The Greek people will face hardship this week and that may influence the NO vote come Sunday - even though the vote my no longer be relevant.

As for the Eur/Usd

For a few weeks it has started to build up a resilience to the Greek news and counter news stories...

Now however actuals are starting to materialise and here are the hard facts...

The impact of QE will affect the EUR/USD as it rolls out continues
The Greek situation is now more tangible and this in no way strengthens the EUR/USD bullish cause
Interest Rates are much more likely than ever to rise in the US than Euroland

Given that the medium term outlook for the EUR/USD has to be bearish and a trend towards USD parity seems the route with the highest probability...

Of course who knows for sure - there may be a last gasp Greek rescue - but that's the risk we take when making predictions :)

Sean

So an olive branch from the ECB in terms of funding to the Greek banks at least for Monday - but after Tuesday more extensions fly in the face of the ECB charters... We will see...

Sean

Yeah, you are right. But news reports are saying they capped the ELA at the previous max levels, which should still be enough for a couple of days? Key is the June 30th IMF loan repayment. Will be interesting what happens next. One of the key trades I had/have in mind is CHF/JPY short if nothing positive comes out before/after Tuesday.

A Greek bank holiday on Monday was announced today, there are rumors about it may extend for the whole week. The news could be extremely bearish for Eur/Usd.

Too bad that brokerages are closed and cannot enter any EUR/USD shorts atm, wonder where the EUR/USD will shift by the time they open in a couple of hours in Asia.... Any thoughts on whether the eur/usd will be lower during European hours than during Asian hours?

jump to
 1.10000

Sub 1.10 now.... TP on small positions hit.....
Meanwhile my bit larger CHF/JPY short went up something like 200pips

And it's official - it's a Bank Holiday in Greece tomorrow - Would hate to be an ATM over there right now

FXCM Open - but EUR/USD quoted at 1.1004/06

closed my trade made profit $700