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Can you consistently make a profit of USD2000 on a USD5000 account?

SIM
pip2cash
Feb 01 2013 at 12:02
423 posts
Hi FX Master,

Honestly, I am nobody in Forex world or at MyFxBook if compare to so many traders here so called themselves professional traders. After reading this discussion, at first i do not want to show my link. But then when I see Splexin said it is almost impossible to get 24 months of consecutive winning month, then only I want to show him, although the probability is less than 1% but it does not mean impossible or nobody did that.

I can tell you there are at least 5 more accounts(I know them) in myfxbook have met your requirements, just that these people they would like to stay low profile, making money trading Forex silently instead of providing Forex related services.

Your question about will I ever invest 1 million into my strategy, I will tell you yes I will, that is one of my financial goal. The reason is not about my strategy, it is because i trust myself on using my trading methodology. A same trading strategy when used by different traders on same broker will give totally different result, this is not because of the trading strategy, it is because the trader. So the key is the trader, nothing to do with trading strategies.

The withdraw of $28k was done by my PAMM investors, it is a PAMM account. I personally has more than $100k invested in my current strategy, started from $5k and from time to time I deposit my saving into it monthly or bi-monthly since 2007/8.

The concept of withdrawing profit, just in case the account being wiped out, then the trader can start again a new account with those profit. I myself never have this kind of concept. If i think my strategy might blow my account at a point of time in the future, then I will stop using this strategy immediately, I will never spend even 1 more min on using this kind of strategy because it is waiting my time. If i continue using this kind of strategy, after few years I might need to restart all over again. So I have wasted my time and my financial status never improve instead fall back to 3 years ago.

Don't worry guys, keep going with what you are doing. I am just passing by and accidentally dropped my 1 or 2 cents worth of opinions, maybe worth nothing at all.


Regards,
SIM

SIM
pip2cash
Feb 01 2013 at 12:31
423 posts
Hi Splexin,

Please don't get me wrong, I don't mean to prove you or Arcsine law wrong. You are right on the probability.

I also do not mean to offend any of the traders and Forex services providers either at myfxbook or would wide. You guys are great and contributing a lot by researching and providing more opportunities to Forex world.

Please continue this discussion with the revised questions by Fx Master Guru: Can anybody show a VERIFIED LIVE account on MyFxBook with at least 5% average monthly profit for AT LEAST 2 YEARS and with less than -25% max. DD using a non-Martingale strategy...?

Regards,
SIM

FxMasterGuru (FxMasterGuru)
Feb 01 2013 at 13:05
1607 posts
Thanks for the feedback, SIM. You are one of the very few traders who can make consistent profits on Forex, probably 5-6k USD per month plus the commissions from your investors.

According to the statistics only 5% of such traders can do that. Congratulations to you for finding your way to this unique club, whatever the nature of the strategy you use (even if Martingale)!

Best regards,

FMG

Please click "Vouch" if you liked my post. If not, just put me on your Blocked list. :o)
FxMasterGuru (FxMasterGuru)
Feb 01 2013 at 13:22
1607 posts
Just as an illustration: with approx 38k USD balance these are the open positions of SIM's Martingale EA:

Open Date Symbol Action Lots Open Price TP SL Profit (USD) Pips Swap
01.24.2013 10:15 EURUSD Sell 0.12 1.3295 1.3535 1.3798 -43.68 -364.00 -0.33
01.24.2013 10:30 EURUSD Sell 0.12 1.3329 1.3535 1.3832 -39.60 -330.00 -0.33
01.24.2013 17:30 EURUSD Sell 0.21 1.336 1.3535 1.3863 -62.79 -299.00 -0.63
01.25.2013 09:15 EURUSD Sell 0.37 1.3413 1.3535 1.3916 -91.02 -246.00 -0.97
01.25.2013 12:15 EURUSD Sell 0.65 1.3447 1.3535 1.3951 -137.80 -212.00 -1.68
01.29.2013 16:45 EURUSD Sell 1.15 1.348 1.3535 1.3984 -205.85 -179.00 -2.14
01.30.2013 09:30 EURUSD Sell 2.03 1.3509 1.3535 1.4014 -304.50 -150.00 -3.0 -
01.30.2013 12:45 EURUSD Sell 6.28 1.3538 1.3535 1.4042 -759.88 -121.00 -9.29
02.01.2013 02:00 EURUSD Sell 6.28 1.3608 1.3535 1.4113 -320.28 -51.00 0.0

In case someone decided to trade this strategy with a 1 million USD account, the last two sell positions would have been entered with 165 lots, EACH. Statistically it will work out for SIM, but what if the EURUSD decides to continue trending even higher? Well, it depends on a well-planned exit strategy and steel nerves.

Apparently one of the investors did not have the steel nerves to tough it through and bailed out in October of 2011 with a 55% loss: https://www.myfxbook.com/members/pip2cash/1st-showcase-account/20283


Please click "Vouch" if you liked my post. If not, just put me on your Blocked list. :o)
Financialarts
Feb 01 2013 at 13:24
134 posts
FxMasterGuru posted:
Just as an illustration: with approx 38k USD balance these are the open positions of SIM's Martingale EA:

Open Date Symbol Action Lots Open Price TP SL Profit (USD) Pips Swap
01.24.2013 10:15 EURUSD Sell 0.12 1.3295 1.3535 1.3798 -43.68 -364.00 -0.33
01.24.2013 10:30 EURUSD Sell 0.12 1.3329 1.3535 1.3832 -39.60 -330.00 -0.33
01.24.2013 17:30 EURUSD Sell 0.21 1.336 1.3535 1.3863 -62.79 -299.00 -0.63
01.25.2013 09:15 EURUSD Sell 0.37 1.3413 1.3535 1.3916 -91.02 -246.00 -0.97
01.25.2013 12:15 EURUSD Sell 0.65 1.3447 1.3535 1.3951 -137.80 -212.00 -1.68
01.29.2013 16:45 EURUSD Sell 1.15 1.348 1.3535 1.3984 -205.85 -179.00 -2.14
01.30.2013 09:30 EURUSD Sell 2.03 1.3509 1.3535 1.4014 -304.50 -150.00 -3.0 -
01.30.2013 12:45 EURUSD Sell 6.28 1.3538 1.3535 1.4042 -759.88 -121.00 -9.29
02.01.2013 02:00 EURUSD Sell 6.28 1.3608 1.3535 1.4113 -320.28 -51.00 0.0

In case someone decided to trade this strategy with a 1 million USD account, the last two sell positions would have been entered with 165 lots, EACH. Statistically it will work out for SIM, but what if the EURUSD decides to continue trending even higher? Well, it depends on a well-planned exit strategy and steel nerves.

Apparently one of the investors did not have the steel nerves to tough it through and bailed out in October of 2011 with a 55% loss: https://www.myfxbook.com/members/pip2cash/1st-showcase-account/20283



Why only bet on sell?
my 'martingale' goes where the market goes

I am the change in the market that causes you to lose :p / Watch out before I negative pip you! ^^
SIM
pip2cash
Feb 01 2013 at 13:57
423 posts
Financialarts posted:
FxMasterGuru posted:
Just as an illustration: with approx 38k USD balance these are the open positions of SIM's Martingale EA:

Open Date Symbol Action Lots Open Price TP SL Profit (USD) Pips Swap
01.24.2013 10:15 EURUSD Sell 0.12 1.3295 1.3535 1.3798 -43.68 -364.00 -0.33
01.24.2013 10:30 EURUSD Sell 0.12 1.3329 1.3535 1.3832 -39.60 -330.00 -0.33
01.24.2013 17:30 EURUSD Sell 0.21 1.336 1.3535 1.3863 -62.79 -299.00 -0.63
01.25.2013 09:15 EURUSD Sell 0.37 1.3413 1.3535 1.3916 -91.02 -246.00 -0.97
01.25.2013 12:15 EURUSD Sell 0.65 1.3447 1.3535 1.3951 -137.80 -212.00 -1.68
01.29.2013 16:45 EURUSD Sell 1.15 1.348 1.3535 1.3984 -205.85 -179.00 -2.14
01.30.2013 09:30 EURUSD Sell 2.03 1.3509 1.3535 1.4014 -304.50 -150.00 -3.0 -
01.30.2013 12:45 EURUSD Sell 6.28 1.3538 1.3535 1.4042 -759.88 -121.00 -9.29
02.01.2013 02:00 EURUSD Sell 6.28 1.3608 1.3535 1.4113 -320.28 -51.00 0.0

In case someone decided to trade this strategy with a 1 million USD account, the last two sell positions would have been entered with 165 lots, EACH. Statistically it will work out for SIM, but what if the EURUSD decides to continue trending even higher? Well, it depends on a well-planned exit strategy and steel nerves.

Apparently one of the investors did not have the steel nerves to tough it through and bailed out in October of 2011 with a 55% loss: https://www.myfxbook.com/members/pip2cash/1st-showcase-account/20283



Why only bet on sell?
my 'martingale' goes where the market goes


I am not sure, maybe my 'martingale' not as smart as your 'martingale'. Let it be, at least it is smarter than me.

Financialarts
Feb 01 2013 at 14:05
134 posts
@ SIM (pip2cash)
'Let it be, at least it is smarter than me.'
Geniusly said.

I'm not saying that your system is bad,
just wondered why it only usses sells (or buys) :)
maybe because ur using a USA broker?

I am the change in the market that causes you to lose :p / Watch out before I negative pip you! ^^
Splexin
Feb 01 2013 at 18:29
202 posts
No worries SIM, I know I am right on probability. But who says I have to make $1 a month with $20 balance to be in the category of 0.64%....12 months without a losing month? Why does my balance matter? (obviously for FX Guru's test but here I'm talking about the probabilities). That's why I added that to my post.

I do not think the probability is 12 months no NET loss I think it means 12 months without ANY loss. I may have phrased it wrong the first time, or maybe I'm wrong about that....I personally didn't come up with this, but someone familiar with arcsine law was discussing optimal time to quit a trading firm was 11 months of winning. Then you can sign on to another firm with big bonus instead of getting fired after a losing month 😁

Anyway, let's do the math:

How many real accounts you think are on MyFXBook? Probably 2,000?

2,000 x 0.21% = 4.2

2,000 x 0.64% = 128

......and so on.

Sounds pretty realistic. Have you seen more than that many accounts here do so well? We know that only about 50% are ever profitable, so it shouldn't be such a stretch that only so few are always profitable.

Although the probabilities sound extreme, if you really think about not so much. And don't forget, with randomness there never is an exact number. So there could be 4 or 6, and 128 or 135 etc etc 😄

P.S. Martingale will always eventually fail. It might be 10 years from now, but eventually it blows up. I'm not sure why anybody bothers to pursue it, because laws of mathematics rule. It's good that you take profits out as you go.

Splexin
Feb 01 2013 at 18:49
202 posts
Also, to put things into perspective I went through one of my inactive accounts (I have 6 that I trade with).

Monthly average profit for past 2 years? 3.27%
Max Drawdown? 24.7%

Here's the clincher! Although my current gain is positive, it's NOT in profit. It's actually in the red about $300 😁 😝

So that's why earlier I was saying using 'averages' really means nothing about the profitability of a system.

I also believe that the larger the account size, and the more trades taken, the more strongly the correlation with the arcsine law (I'm sure you've heard of the Law of Large Numbers).

Fun discussion nevertheless! 😄

Financialarts
Feb 01 2013 at 21:31
134 posts
Splexin posted:

I also believe that the larger the account size, and the more trades taken, the more strongly the correlation with the arcsine law (I'm sure you've heard of the Law of Large Numbers).

Fun discussion nevertheless! 😄


How about daltons piramid?
Easy explained:
1
11
121
1331
etc
I like it! ^^

I am the change in the market that causes you to lose :p / Watch out before I negative pip you! ^^
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