Jan 30 2013 at 21:14

Financialarts posted:

@ Splexin ,

I've worked on an ea which 'bended' probability into a 'wannabe' linear net gain equity curve, Check the results at

https://championship.mql5.com/2012/en/users/Financialarts

It uses channel outbreak and probability to get net gain result.

running a version of this one on a real mt4 account atm.

Looks pretty good. I had forgotten to mention linear regression as another plausible method.

I'm currently testing an EA which was derived from optimization done in MATLAB using simple RSI (believe it or not) and price MA entry (timed to trade during certain hours) and it has annual Sharpe of about 1.90 (validation Sharpe of 3.12 on out-of-sample). I use Oanda tick data for my research. I then adjust risk according to a modified VaR formula and use very small positions (much like your EA) which allows me to have a Risk of Ruin of basically zero. I think position sizing is where a lot of traders mess up, because they are eager to see big gains in short time. So far, no losing trades. It's amazing because one current trade came close to being stopping out and I almost manually closed it, but because of volatility the pair soon moved back into favor and is almost in profit again. I am very new to MATLAB but it is extremely powerful and very useful for millisecond calculations and can optimize thousands of parameters in just minutes or hours. Furthermore it is easier to detect and avoid biases that can creep in when using Metatrader tester.

between 5-10% is possible, yes, do it now since May 2012 for an client

FxMasterGuru
(FxMasterGuru)

Member Since May 04, 2012
1607 posts
Feb 01 2013 at 00:10

Quick100 posted:

between 5-10% is possible, yes, do it now since May 2012 for an client

Do you have a verified MyFxBook link? Anyway, the questions remains the same:

Can anybody show a VERIFIED LIVE account on MyFxBook with at least 5% average monthly profit over the past 2 YEARS(!) and with less than -25% max. DD...?

So far: nobody.... I guess, it tells a lot about the chances of 'Average Joe Trader' finding a 'gem' here or making a decent living by trading Forex on his own.

*Please click "Vouch" if you liked my post. If not, just put me on your Blocked list. :o)*

I have an link but not verified because it is the clients account.

Anyway, you are right, DD is a bit above 25% and account is only 8 months old..

good luck for you

Anyway, you are right, DD is a bit above 25% and account is only 8 months old..

good luck for you

Feb 01 2013 at 06:02

FxMasterGuru posted:Quick100 posted:

between 5-10% is possible, yes, do it now since May 2012 for an client

Do you have a verified MyFxBook link? Anyway, the questions remains the same:

Can anybody show a VERIFIED LIVE account on MyFxBook with at least 5% average monthly profit over the past 2 YEARS(!) and with less than -25% max. DD...?

So far: nobody.... I guess, it tells a lot about the chances of 'Average Joe Trader' finding a 'gem' here or making a decent living by trading Forex on his own.

Hi FX Master,

A verified MyFxBook link, with average 5% monthly profit over last 2 years, and with equity DD of less than 25% !

Who say it is not possible to have all winning month? Someone say the probability to have straight 12 winning months is 0.64%. Can you calculate for me what is the probability for straight 36 of winning months? I am not so good in math but if i am not mistaken is it 0.21%?

Take a look at the link:

https://www.myfxbook.com/members/pip2cash/2nd-showcase-account/23063 The account leverage is 1:100 .

Regards,

SIM

Feb 01 2013 at 06:18

pip2cash posted:

Hi FX Master,

A verified MyFxBook link, with average 5% monthly profit over last 2 years, and with equity DD of less than 25% !

Who say it is not possible to have all winning month? Someone say the probability to have straight 12 winning months is 0.64%. Can you calculate for me what is the probability for straight 36 of winning months? I am not so good in math but if i am not mistaken is it 0.21%?

Take a look at the link:

https://www.myfxbook.com/members/pip2cash/2nd-showcase-account/23063 The account leverage is 1:100 .

Regards,

SIM

Your average monthly profit in 2012 was 3.47% and your average monthly profit in 2011 was 5.89%. So your average monthly profit for the past 2 years is 4.68%.

Impressive yes, but still fails his 'at least 5% average per month for past 2 years' test 😉

Also, I could make one dollar a month and say I was profitable every month. Does this mean I am in the 0.64% or 0.21%??

Feb 01 2013 at 06:25

Splexin posted:pip2cash posted:

Hi FX Master,

A verified MyFxBook link, with average 5% monthly profit over last 2 years, and with equity DD of less than 25% !

Who say it is not possible to have all winning month? Someone say the probability to have straight 12 winning months is 0.64%. Can you calculate for me what is the probability for straight 36 of winning months? I am not so good in math but if i am not mistaken is it 0.21%?

Take a look at the link:

https://www.myfxbook.com/members/pip2cash/2nd-showcase-account/23063 The account leverage is 1:100 .

Regards,

SIM

Your average monthly profit in 2012 was 3.47% and your average monthly profit in 2011 was 5.89%. So your average monthly profit for the past 2 years is 4.68%.

Impressive yes, but still fails his 'at least 5% average per month for past 2 years' test 😉

Hi,

You are right about the profit thing. It is 4.68% for past 2 years, but the equity DD is only about 16%.

If let say i take slightly higher risk to the equity DD to 20%, do you think is it possible to increase the past 2 years profit from 4.68 to 5.01%? I don't know, maybe not possible. But it does not matter, forget about it.

Anyway, it still fails his 'at least 5% average per month for past 2 years' test.

Regards,

SIM

Feb 01 2013 at 06:49

Splexin posted:pip2cash posted:

Hi FX Master,

A verified MyFxBook link, with average 5% monthly profit over last 2 years, and with equity DD of less than 25% !

Who say it is not possible to have all winning month? Someone say the probability to have straight 12 winning months is 0.64%. Can you calculate for me what is the probability for straight 36 of winning months? I am not so good in math but if i am not mistaken is it 0.21%?

Take a look at the link:

https://www.myfxbook.com/members/pip2cash/2nd-showcase-account/23063 The account leverage is 1:100 .

Regards,

SIM

Your average monthly profit in 2012 was 3.47% and your average monthly profit in 2011 was 5.89%. So your average monthly profit for the past 2 years is 4.68%.

Impressive yes, but still fails his 'at least 5% average per month for past 2 years' test 😉

Also, I could make one dollar a month and say I was profitable every month. Does this mean I am in the 0.64% or 0.21%??

If let say you are making $1 a month using a monthly start up account balance of $20 for the past 2 years, with equity DD of less than $5, i think you are meeting the term. Can FX Master please confirm?

Thanks.

FxMasterGuru
(FxMasterGuru)

Member Since May 04, 2012
1607 posts
Feb 01 2013 at 11:14

Congratulations, SIM!

My revised question was: 'Can anybody show a VERIFIED LIVE account on MyFxBook with at least 5% average monthly profit for AT LEAST 2 YEARS and with less than -25% max. DD...?'

SIM's posted MyFxBook link shows: Average profit: 5.05% with a max. DD of -24.01% over the past 3 years, which fulfills the above criteria. It reassuring to see that there is at least ONE such strategy on MyFxBook. Thanks SIM for sharing the link!

On the other hand the posted strategy uses Martingale money management and apparently very well, as the account has not blown up for practically 3 years, so it is impressive also in this regards.

But here comes another important question: Would you invest 1 million USD in a Martingale-style strategy to make 600k USD profit yearly (i.e. 50k USD per month) which would provide a comfortable living anywhere in the world...???

I guess most traders - at least in their right mind - would not. Even SIM does not risk more than 25k USD with this strategy and very WISELY. He has already withdrawn almost 28k USD profit, so - just in case - the Martingale strategy blows up the account, he can still walk away with about 2500 USD profit for the past 3 years and start again.

So I need to revise my question again: Can anybody show a VERIFIED LIVE account on MyFxBook with at least 5% average monthly profit for AT LEAST 2 YEARS and with less than -25% max. DD using a non-Martingale strategy...?

My revised question was: 'Can anybody show a VERIFIED LIVE account on MyFxBook with at least 5% average monthly profit for AT LEAST 2 YEARS and with less than -25% max. DD...?'

SIM's posted MyFxBook link shows: Average profit: 5.05% with a max. DD of -24.01% over the past 3 years, which fulfills the above criteria. It reassuring to see that there is at least ONE such strategy on MyFxBook. Thanks SIM for sharing the link!

On the other hand the posted strategy uses Martingale money management and apparently very well, as the account has not blown up for practically 3 years, so it is impressive also in this regards.

But here comes another important question: Would you invest 1 million USD in a Martingale-style strategy to make 600k USD profit yearly (i.e. 50k USD per month) which would provide a comfortable living anywhere in the world...???

I guess most traders - at least in their right mind - would not. Even SIM does not risk more than 25k USD with this strategy and very WISELY. He has already withdrawn almost 28k USD profit, so - just in case - the Martingale strategy blows up the account, he can still walk away with about 2500 USD profit for the past 3 years and start again.

So I need to revise my question again: Can anybody show a VERIFIED LIVE account on MyFxBook with at least 5% average monthly profit for AT LEAST 2 YEARS and with less than -25% max. DD using a non-Martingale strategy...?

*Please click "Vouch" if you liked my post. If not, just put me on your Blocked list. :o)*