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Fast Forex Millions back and forward testing by Remus

Alec
Jan 22 2012 at 16:45
91 posts

MDP has hard coded setup change in its mql file. which that made me stay away of using it.( this means MDP is a semiautomated EA if trader can manage to do it ) code for the new EA should be decompiled and checked for the same issue. hard coded setup change can also be done in DLL. to understand that the DLL function must be checked if any date/time data is been used.

fyi
walker



Not everyone knows that stuff. EA programing... I know I don't

ForexScam
Jan 22 2012 at 16:55
1008 posts
@Remus, Thanks for this tid bit. If logic is based on M15 it shouldn't take long to figure out - If you can share the Template file to Walker and I , we'd appreciate it (PM).

@Walker - Your right about the BT manipulation - A coder can easily block out bad trades to spice up the BT outcome. For example FX voodoo did such that - This ea was decompiled and sure enough there were bad months that were blocked out during a back test to prevent the BT from showing the true story if the EA were to run 24/7. - Others can read more here - https://www.pipinvestment.com/scams/metatrader-backtesting-scam

Anyways, I'm still interested in the outcome of any commercial Bot. Keep us posted Remus =)

I also noticed that on the FFM website, after clicking off, you can get access to a pdf that vaguely states the logic. Its not much to go off and plotting a few trades on the M15 will display more than what the pdf stated.

@Remus, did you make any or optimize the atr setting within the FFM or run the BT at default?

Remus Miclea (NextLevelForex)
Jan 22 2012 at 17:09
262 posts

   walker36 posted:
   Hi Remus

after BT finished just click 'Open Chart' ( right side of the strategy tester ) this will open the chart and will show up the trades taken on chart.
then right click on the chart and save as template. then any time when you apply this template to chart it will bring the results.



Thanks, I did not know about that, but remember seeing that option, so I'll use it next time!

He who thinks he can, and he who thinks he cannot, are both right. ~ Henry Ford
Remus Miclea (NextLevelForex)
Jan 22 2012 at 17:14
262 posts

   walker36 posted:
   'But I will disagree with 'demo is no proof' in this particular case. Considering the EA enters trades at normal times (as opposed to MDP which trades only on volatility spikes, for example), a demo and a live account would have almost the same exact fills.'

if EA average TP > 15-20 pips then demo results will be the same as real account unless slippage and connection issues on real.



Thanks Steve for adding to my comment. Larger TP is essential to what I said, indeed. To be even more clear, for anyone still not believing this, just consider 2 EAs, ones expected to make 10 pips each trade, and one expected to make 1.5 pips each trade (that is the Pips Expectancy, btw, reported by myfxbook in the stats). If your broker slips you 0.5 pips on average, the first EA will lose 5% of profitability, and the second will lose 33%. For higher slippage they'll lose more, with the second going into negative territory fast. FFM is shown to have a 22 Pips Expectancy on the sales page, but I got around 8 on my 2011 backtesting. Even at that value the demo and live should be roughly the same. If not, a broker change is necessary.

He who thinks he can, and he who thinks he cannot, are both right. ~ Henry Ford
Remus Miclea (NextLevelForex)
Jan 22 2012 at 17:20
262 posts

   Alec posted:
   If I understand it well:

The best one can do with a 'decent spread', is a monthly 3% profit.

EUR/USD with fixed 0.01 lots. Right?


Yes, Alec, that's the conclusion you can draw from 2011 BT. And if you look at the very low DD (2.95%), that's actually very good. If you use 0.02, you'll get double each month, for double the DD. Of course, it's just a BT :)

I like my testing with fixed lots to see how the performance is throughout the testing period (otherwise a recent great performance could hide the very bad period that happened 1 year ago, for example). And I used 0.01 for a $1,000 account, since I really see no point in those backtests with million dollar accounts, trading 1000 lots each time - 99% of the traders are far, far away from that, and even most of the brokers cannot handle 1000 lots per trade.

He who thinks he can, and he who thinks he cannot, are both right. ~ Henry Ford
Remus Miclea (NextLevelForex)
Jan 22 2012 at 17:31
262 posts

   ForexScam posted:
   @Remus, Thanks for this tid bit. If logic is based on M15 it shouldn't take long to figure out - If you can share the Template file to Walker and I , we'd appreciate it (PM).

@Walker - Your right about the BT manipulation - A coder can easily block out bad trades to spice up the BT outcome. For example FX voodoo did such that - This ea was decompiled and sure enough there were bad months that were blocked out during a back test to prevent the BT from showing the true story if the EA were to run 24/7. - Others can read more here - https://www.pipinvestment.com/scams/metatrader-backtesting-scam

Anyways, I'm still interested in the outcome of any commercial Bot. Keep us posted Remus =)

I also noticed that on the FFM website, after clicking off, you can get access to a pdf that vaguely states the logic. Its not much to go off and plotting a few trades on the M15 will display more than what the pdf stated.

@Remus, did you make any or optimize the atr setting within the FFM or run the BT at default?


Yes, I'll do that later today!

The 'revealing the strategy' document (Secret Report.pdf) you mentioned is close to a joke, imo. I'll let everyone to decide its value, but I don't think I would have released a report that seems to have no practical value (for the user).

About optimization: none done, nor planned. I attempted to do it once, MT4 crashed, and I won't try again anytime soon, since there are other areas I need to focus on. The developer said the 'out of the box' settings are optimized, so now I just want to see how good that corresponding performance is!

He who thinks he can, and he who thinks he cannot, are both right. ~ Henry Ford
Alec
Jan 22 2012 at 19:36
91 posts

   NextLevelForex posted:
   
Yes, Alec, that's the conclusion you can draw from 2011 BT. And if you look at the very low DD (2.95%), that's actually very good. If you use 0.02, you'll get double each month, for double the DD. Of course, it's just a BT :)

I like my testing with fixed lots to see how the performance is throughout the testing period (otherwise a recent great performance could hide the very bad period that happened 1 year ago, for example).


I agree, you did good, that was the best choice for analysis purposes.

Now I'll wait for further developments, from you or from the experts Steve and Will :)

And by the end of the week, I may buy the robot too.

Alec
Jan 22 2012 at 20:42
91 posts
Apparently, Million Dollar Pips ceased to work out at the end of October, so there was a need for their team to come up with something else. MDP was quite profitable for about 3 months -- in very strict conditions.

It remains to be seen for how long FFM will be making pips.

On this *really* early stage, from the 5 accounts I'm watching, there are 2 winners to 3 losers. Being that one of the losers is the only real money account (Birt's).

Remus Miclea (NextLevelForex)
Jan 22 2012 at 20:47
262 posts

   Alec posted:
   Apparently, Million Dollar Pips ceased to work out at the end of October, so there was a need for their team to come up with something else. MDP was quite profitable for about 3 months -- in very strict conditions.

It remains to be seen for how long FFM will be making pips.

On this *really* early stage, from the 5 accounts I'm watching, there are 2 winners to 3 losers. Being that one of the losers is the only real money account (Birt's).


FFM should not suffer at all from the problems MDP had, if it is indeed trading as the vendor says (and so far seems to be true). To recap, the biggest MDP problem is getting good fills, which is only getting worse as more people are trading it.

And it's too early to say anything about forward performance yet, so I would draw any conclusions. Once we have 100 trades, then we can talk (and the good thing is that the EA seems to be trade as often as advertised, so in very few weeks we could have those 100 trades).

On a related note, I'll do my best to start forward testing on a real money account today.

He who thinks he can, and he who thinks he cannot, are both right. ~ Henry Ford
Steve Walker
walker36
Jan 22 2012 at 20:57
1341 posts
there should be something attractive about William s products. MDP has no vendors live account but Beta tested with on real with many traders. and now Remus, you are going to put it on Beta test for the creator. ( I call that beta test due vendor has not tested on real account if did I did not see ) my advise is to first test it on demo. demo <> live will not be different as generally accepted here at the thread.

but at the end it is your money😄


   NextLevelForex posted:
   

   Alec posted:
   Apparently, Million Dollar Pips ceased to work out at the end of October, so there was a need for their team to come up with something else. MDP was quite profitable for about 3 months -- in very strict conditions.

It remains to be seen for how long FFM will be making pips.

On this *really* early stage, from the 5 accounts I'm watching, there are 2 winners to 3 losers. Being that one of the losers is the only real money account (Birt's).


FFM should not suffer at all from the problems MDP had, if it is indeed trading as the vendor says (and so far seems to be true). To recap, the biggest MDP problem is getting good fills, which is only getting worse as more people are trading it.

And it's too early to say anything about forward performance yet, so I would draw any conclusions. Once we have 100 trades, then we can talk (and the good thing is that the EA seems to be trade as often as advertised, so in very few weeks we could have those 100 trades).

On a related note, I'll do my best to start forward testing on a real money account today.

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