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Fast Forex Millions back and forward testing by Remus

Remus Miclea (NextLevelForex)
Jan 23 2012 at 07:54
262 posts
I'm done with all the backtests I wanted to do, but won't post them here, since Birt uploaded his backtests now, and they match mine (I checked the charts, as well as looked at a couple of individual trades):

https://eareview.net/live-forward-test/fast-forex-millions

Bottom line: forwards tests are going to tell us if the performance shown by the backtests can be sustained.

He who thinks he can, and he who thinks he cannot, are both right. ~ Henry Ford
Steve Walker
walker36
Jan 23 2012 at 10:24
1341 posts
there can be differencies between brokers for any EA that using different data feeds ( indicators ) + it has slippage setup this will also cause differencies + most probably it has spread filter that can also effect.

Benjamin Nathan
BenniB84
Jan 23 2012 at 13:02
31 posts
This is going to be a VERY interesting one to watch. Really tempted to jump on this one before is gets big and starts the blowing process... looking good overall?

Remus Miclea (NextLevelForex)
Jan 23 2012 at 17:14
262 posts

   walker36 posted:
   there can be differencies between brokers for any EA that using different data feeds ( indicators ) + it has slippage setup this will also cause differencies + most probably it has spread filter that can also effect.


Yes, the price feed will induce differences, and once people understand that, they will probably have the expectations set correctly (i.e. you cannot get all the same trades across brokers, but if the EA is based on a profitable strategy, the resulting expectancy will roughly be the same - discounting the spread, of course).

Also, what I'm trying to show here is that the demo account (at FXDD) is not always getting better fills than the real one:

https://www.myfxbook.com/members/NextLevelForex/fast-forex-millions-fxdd/228516
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/NextLevelForex/fast-forex-millions-fxdd-real/106578

The trouble with that is filtering the different trades, but once you do that, you can see that we already have trades that are better in the live account.

For me this (doing the backtests and now forward testing) was a very educational experience, through which I had some of my assumptions confirmed, and also learned new things.

He who thinks he can, and he who thinks he cannot, are both right. ~ Henry Ford
Remus Miclea (NextLevelForex)
Jan 23 2012 at 17:22
262 posts

   BenniB84 posted:
   This is going to be a VERY interesting one to watch. Really tempted to jump on this one before is gets big and starts the blowing process... looking good overall?


Benni,

It's looking OK from my perspective. Not great, but good enough to worth using it live in my account.

I don't like that the sales page advertises Pips Expectancy much higher than what I got in the backtests (I did EURUSD from 2007 through end of 2011, and I did not get anywhere close to what they claim to be). I also don't like that they (the vendor) did not put up a real money account, to show the commitment behind the EA.

However, I like that the EA passed the backtests for 4 of the 5 currencies (USDCHF is barely profitable from my testing), so I'm willing to risk 0.01 lots in my real account to learn more about the EA. The promise of this EA is that the wins are bigger than losses, and that's quite something, given that most of the EAs I looked so far at had that very much reversed (TP 15 pips, SL 120 - you have probably seen that already, more than enough :P)

The FXDD accounts linked above indeed show larger wins than losses, but it's too early to tell if that holds true for longer periods. What is good is that the EA takes trades often, so we'll have data to judge it pretty soon.

He who thinks he can, and he who thinks he cannot, are both right. ~ Henry Ford
willgart
Jan 24 2012 at 02:16
588 posts
hi,

have you tried to test using different parameters?
usdchf appear to be the best , but not using the default parameters. but it was not tested using tick data and only for half year. (in fact I think a long term back test means nothing because the EA will be optimised for a past good period but not for the current 'flat' market)
so I put filter to 800, KofATR 4.6 and peratr to 26 for usdchf.

what did you get in a longer tick based back test?

for some reason... the GBPUSD did not provide any profitable configuration for the last 4 month in back test (again 90% quality) I'm not able to make it profitable

Remus Miclea (NextLevelForex)
Jan 24 2012 at 06:40
262 posts
I only used the default parameters (except for lot size, which I set to fixed 0.01).

USDCHF had the worst overall performance (talking about the whole 2007-2011 timeframe). Disclaimer: I did not do USDCAD backtesting at all, so I am only comparing the other 4 pairs here. If you look at only the recent months, yes, the USDCHF performance was impressive, so you should look at longer periods, otherwise you'll get only a glimpse of the picture.

GBPUSD had the second best performance over the whole period. And again, if you only look at the recent months, GBPUSD was flat.

I think 90% quality is good for this EA, but I wanted to use the tickdata since I believe that data is more accurate then the one in MT4 history center. So if your data is good, 90% testing should give almost the same picture was my 99% testing.

For more details, see the images in the attached an archive.

Attachments:


He who thinks he can, and he who thinks he cannot, are both right. ~ Henry Ford
Steve Walker
walker36
Jan 24 2012 at 11:03
1341 posts
what is the difference between FXDD & Peppers??

Remus Miclea (NextLevelForex)
Jan 24 2012 at 11:47
262 posts
FXDD is what I consider an expensive broker, with very high spreads (2.2 on EURUSD, and above 4 one some of the other FFM pairs), while Pepperstone spreads are much lower.

For the moment Pepperstone account is behind FXDD, but I expect the situation to reverse after a longer series or trades.

He who thinks he can, and he who thinks he cannot, are both right. ~ Henry Ford
Steve Walker
walker36
Jan 24 2012 at 11:53
1341 posts
but here must be reason for that. as you have said peeper spreads are lower. I had mentioned some issues about pepper at my thread earlier. I suspect now what I mentioned is correct. lets wait and see🙄🙄

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