Bogie-HedgeHog-v4g Discussion

when I said jan / feb 2009 meant jan / dez 2009, and when I said Jan / Feb 2008/2007 mean Jan / Dec 2007/2008, I apologize for the confusion

I thought this EA is a fully automated, so I need to put in the trades when the upper left corner show some figures? Do I need to place the EA on both EUR/USD & USD/CHF H1?

I wonder why i keep getting page load error(using firefox) when trying to access the www.forexmt4.com/mt_yahoo page from my home internet connection.However when access from my workplace, there is no problem at all(also using firefox). Anyone have any idea why is this happening or facing the same problem as mine?

According to my backtesting, long term survival is more likely, when you use 2 or 3 percent risk. However, the returns are not so impressive (but still you can multiply your account value in several years).

Wackena:

The results on myfxbook were updated last on March 20, is your MT4 down?

Hi,

Regarding the performance of this system I realized a Monte Carlo analysis (see below) regarding the statistic and not a distribution of each trades :

1. The system has 5% of chance to have a DDmax above around 6.55%. So I suppose when the negative floating is above this value, the best way is to close manually the trades for having a chance to see the capital grow-up in the futur.

2. I made an extrapolation (Max Consecutive Loss (6) * Worst Case Drawdown (6.55%) = 33.32%) which represent the maximal Drawdown supported by this system.

3. So we can assume that with x% of the actual risk the system have 95% of chance to reach 258% each 3 months with a risk to lose 34% of the capital.

4. It's only a statistic so be carefull... Because each day is another day !

5. Happy trading :-)


MARKET SYSTEM: BOOGIE HEDGE 2

TRADING PARAMETERS
Initial Account Equity: 10 000,00 $
Trading Vehicle: Futures
Initial Margin: 0,00 $
Round-turn slippage per contract: 0,00 $
Round-turn commissions and fees per contract: 0,00 $

Position Sizing Method: Fixed Contracts
No. Contracts: 1
Number of Monte Carlo Samples: 500

KEY RESULTS AT SELECT CONFIDENCE LEVELS
CONFIDENCE (%) RATE OF RETURN (%) MAX DRAWDOWN (%) RETURN-DD RATIO MOD. SHARPE RATIO
50 258.8 3.669 70.54 0.3288
60 258.8 3.916 66.09 0.3255
70 258.8 4.316 59.96 0.3220
80 258.8 4.948 52.30 0.3179
85 258.8 5.268 49.13 0.3168
90 258.8 5.755 44.96 0.3139
91 258.8 5.839 44.32 0.3125
92 258.8 5.976 43.31 0.3118
93 258.8 6.089 42.50 0.3109
94 258.8 6.218 41.62 0.3101
95 258.8 6.554 39.48 0.3094
96 258.8 6.663 38.84 0.3083
97 258.8 6.831 37.89 0.3068
98 258.8 7.169 36.10 0.3048
99 258.8 8.161 31.71 0.3024
100 258.8 10.70 24.18 0.2954

MONTE CARLO RESULTS AT 95.00% CONFIDENCE

Total Net Profit: 25 879,09 $ Max Number of Contracts: 1
Final Account Equity: 35 879,09 $ Minimum Number of Contracts: 1
Return on Starting Equity: 258.8% Average Number of Contracts: 1
Profit Factor: 4.170
Largest Winning Trade: 1 064,08 $ Largest Losing Trade: (284,53 $)
Largest Winning Trade (%): 6.960% Largest Losing Trade (%): -2.692%
Average Winning Trade: 140,68 $ Average Losing Trade: (96,06 $)
Average Winning Trade (%): 0.6817% Average Losing Trade (%): -0.5521%
Average Trade: 79,14 $ Win/Loss Ratio: 1.465
Average Trade (%): 0.3977% Win/Loss Ratio (%/%): 1.328
Trade Standard Deviation: 223,04 $ Max Consecutive Wins: 12
Trade Standard Deviation (%): 1.291% Max Consecutive Losses: 6
Worst Case Drawdown: (1 018,99 $) Return/Drawdown Ratio: 39.48
Worst Case Drawdown (%): 6.554% Modified Sharpe Ratio: 0.3094
Average Drawdown: (176,93 $)
Average Drawdown (%): 0.9233%

eravo12 posted:
    Hi,

Regarding the performance of this system I realized a Monte Carlo analysis (see below) regarding the statistic and not a distribution of each trades :

1. The system has 5% of chance to have a DDmax above around 6.55%. So I suppose when the negative floating is above this value, the best way is to close manually the trades for having a chance to see the capital grow-up in the futur.

2. I made an extrapolation (Max Consecutive Loss (6) * Worst Case Drawdown (6.55%) = 33.32%) which represent the maximal Drawdown supported by this system.

3. So we can assume that with x% of the actual risk the system have 95% of chance to reach 258% each 3 months with a risk to lose 34% of the capital.

4. It's only a statistic so be carefull... Because each day is another day !

5. Happy trading :-)


MARKET SYSTEM: BOOGIE HEDGE 2

TRADING PARAMETERS
Initial Account Equity: 10 000,00 $
Trading Vehicle: Futures
Initial Margin: 0,00 $
Round-turn slippage per contract: 0,00 $
Round-turn commissions and fees per contract: 0,00 $

Position Sizing Method: Fixed Contracts
No. Contracts: 1
Number of Monte Carlo Samples: 500

KEY RESULTS AT SELECT CONFIDENCE LEVELS
CONFIDENCE (%) RATE OF RETURN (%) MAX DRAWDOWN (%) RETURN-DD RATIO MOD. SHARPE RATIO
50 258.8 3.669 70.54 0.3288
60 258.8 3.916 66.09 0.3255
70 258.8 4.316 59.96 0.3220
80 258.8 4.948 52.30 0.3179
85 258.8 5.268 49.13 0.3168
90 258.8 5.755 44.96 0.3139
91 258.8 5.839 44.32 0.3125
92 258.8 5.976 43.31 0.3118
93 258.8 6.089 42.50 0.3109
94 258.8 6.218 41.62 0.3101
95 258.8 6.554 39.48 0.3094
96 258.8 6.663 38.84 0.3083
97 258.8 6.831 37.89 0.3068
98 258.8 7.169 36.10 0.3048
99 258.8 8.161 31.71 0.3024
100 258.8 10.70 24.18 0.2954

MONTE CARLO RESULTS AT 95.00% CONFIDENCE

Total Net Profit: 25 879,09 $ Max Number of Contracts: 1
Final Account Equity: 35 879,09 $ Minimum Number of Contracts: 1
Return on Starting Equity: 258.8% Average Number of Contracts: 1
Profit Factor: 4.170
Largest Winning Trade: 1 064,08 $ Largest Losing Trade: (284,53 $)
Largest Winning Trade (%): 6.960% Largest Losing Trade (%): -2.692%
Average Winning Trade: 140,68 $ Average Losing Trade: (96,06 $)
Average Winning Trade (%): 0.6817% Average Losing Trade (%): -0.5521%
Average Trade: 79,14 $ Win/Loss Ratio: 1.465
Average Trade (%): 0.3977% Win/Loss Ratio (%/%): 1.328
Trade Standard Deviation: 223,04 $ Max Consecutive Wins: 12
Trade Standard Deviation (%): 1.291% Max Consecutive Losses: 6
Worst Case Drawdown: (1 018,99 $) Return/Drawdown Ratio: 39.48
Worst Case Drawdown (%): 6.554% Modified Sharpe Ratio: 0.3094
Average Drawdown: (176,93 $)

Average Drawdown (%): 0.9233%

I did a test basket in 2009 and super good, and with the same setings did in the years 2008 and 2007 and in these years gave bankruptcy. what you think of this?

v4f version

redpine posted:
    As with all Martingales, the eventual has happened. Now what do you do? Take a loss or wait it out?

First manual intervention, I took the hit today and close open trades for loss.

filipebroker posted:
    Hello Wacken,
Thank you for sharing this EA.
I did the test basket in Jan / Feb 2009 and gave a very good rentable. I was surprised when I test basket of Jan / Feb 2008/2007 and gave a very bad result. you have any explanation for this.
Grateful Philip

Try v4f.

winsteadglenn posted:
    Wackena: Thank you for the explanatioin. Please advise what is the magic sauce that makes the V4 more durable?

V4 only has trade activities at start of new bar. Not as sensitive to in bar interpolation.

Hi FilipeBroker,

Let me tell you quickly <how I see the market>. Imagine during 24 hours, you bet each hour. In this case you bet 24 times. When the price goes up you win 1$ and when the market goes down you loss 1$. So the range for your gain at the end of the day is between -24$ and +24$... Unlucky guy or Lucky guy... But you have 16.777.216 [Power(2;24)] differents 'future' ways for having this range (48 values) of results. So in my mind whatever the system you have it's works in certain period. I use often Monte Carlo because this method gives a several futures and specially the risk like 5% to reach the DDmax. So when the floating reach the 5% I think the best way is to cut the trades to have a chance to live with your positive account. I developped several EA (GRID, TREND, MARTINGALE, TURTLE, ect...) and for me it's always the same decision : Where to find the good exit when the EA doesn't react well ... Because in backtesting the live is a paradise ! in real trading it should be a nightmare !!!

kelrine posted:
    I thought this EA is a fully automated, so I need to put in the trades when the upper left corner show some figures? Do I need to place the EA on both EUR/USD & USD/CHF H1?

Chart comments are for visual use only, has no effect on trading. EA is automatic trading.

Hi Wackena

why you closed the trades manually, i am testing your EA,and the trades opened same as you (approximately), yes it went negative to 330 pips (micro account), i kept it going, now it is positive with 210pips. (when you think it will close all orders with profit?)

but i have one problem, the settings are Max trades=4
the EA opened 5 sell orders on USDCHF, !!!! what is reason?
other question, do the EA have to open new orders while it is in profit?
Regards,
Anthony

Guys...I don't want to sound ignorant, but I finally found the EA files..but it is in coded (cut & paste?) form. I mean I couldn't find the Hedgehog in *.ex4 or *.mq4 ready to plug form. So, am I suppose to copy it to the Metatrader editor? Can somebody walk me through the steps...I never done this before. Many thanks. Dan

Anthony_M posted:
    Hi Wackena

why you closed the trades manually, i am testing your EA,and the trades opened same as you (approximately), yes it went negative to 330 pips (micro account), i kept it going, now it is positive with 210pips. (when you think it will close all orders with profit?)

but i have one problem, the settings are Max trades=4
the EA opened 5 sell orders on USDCHF, !!!! what is reason?
other question, do the EA have to open new orders while it is in profit?
Regards,
Anthony

The reason the trades were closed was that the MT4 terminal used to publish results to myfxbook.com stop publishing results. To correct is was necessary to restart MT4 Terminal. I had forgotten about a flaw in v2 and when terminal restarted, all open trades were closed by EA. Later versions have the fix for this problem. I should have updated this myfxbook.com account to later versions, but I did not. My mistake.

I don not know why you have 5 open sequential trades on same currency pair. You can attached your expert and journal logs for day that trades were opened and I will see if I can find out why.

No, EA will not open new trades when current trades are in profit.

SaltyWaters posted:
    This looks promising, congratulations and thanks for sharing!

I have v4f with default settings.

Is it ready to trade? I mean is it a plug and play thing or do I have to do anything with the settings according to the broker I'm with?


Cheers

Plug and play. Smiley face in upper right chart corner and no errors in expert or journal logs and you are ready to trade.

Hi Wackena
i remembered the reason why it opened 5 sequential orders, because i switched EA to v4f, and adjusted GMT to broker time.
anyhow, so 1 hour ago,i closed the orders manually, total profit since last friday till now +157 pips.
i will keep v4f running without touching it anymore for a complete month and give you results.
if performance is good , no big drawdown, i will put it on mini real account.
Thanks for your EA and wish you earn lot of $$.
Regards,
Anthony

SaltyWaters posted:
    

ApacheDan posted:
    Guys...I don't want to sound ignorant, but I finally found the EA files..but it is in coded (cut & paste?) form. I mean I couldn't find the Hedgehog in *.ex4 or *.mq4 ready to plug form. So, am I suppose to copy it to the Metatrader editor? Can somebody walk me through the steps...I never done this before. Many thanks. Dan

In Metatrader editor click File / Open (EA text file) then Save as (in your broker's Experts folder) close and restart your platform

That's it, you're done!

Well, almost done! don't forget to place the EA on the chart, allow live trading and turn the Expert Advisor on.

:-)

... or you could (in your browser) right-click mouse over the item, then Save target, and you have the mq4 file that you can upload to your experts folder.