EUR/USD

Let us not be too optimistic, nothing can be sure in fx: usually more obvious scenarios are the less probable ones !

EURUSD / weekly chart

As I have posted on August 20. the second-time-around on the daily chart was an excellent entry and so far approx. 170 pips plus.

The weekly chart currently shows the same type of entry, as I have outlined in my last posting (with exact pricing to enter a trade)
This entry-price is also a major buy-stop entry on the monthly chart, as well as on the Q-chart, to trade to near the GAP at 1.2000.

Keep in mind, a good trade can last 5 to 10 bars

I also described the current congestion on the weekly chart, and that we do not trade bars 11 through 16.
Nr. 17 is the first bar we trade in any congestion in any time-frame.
Last week was Nr. 17 on the weekly chart.

One should never enter a trade without a SL attached to it.
The TP should remain at the assumed exit (in this case near the GAP), and the trade should be managed by moving the SL in sections.
Often this is a much better way to achieve big profits.

If anyone is interested, I can explain with a picture as to how SL management in sections works.

Eur/Usd keeps its high near 1.1370-1.1375 zone, no gap at all.

The coming week would be critical test of Euro's strength.

It has been an interesting week in the FX world and in the larger investment world as a whole. Something is not quite right though and we should consider a number of factors before betting the house in the incoming week.

Firstly we have seen a huge sell off in global equities. Fear has returned to the stock markets mainly due to the news coming out of China.

The Yuan devaluations have had big ramifications not just to the economies of China's neighbours but right around the world and especially in the emerging markets.

Secondly the continued and worsening fall in commodity prices especially crude oil still shows no sign of reversing as demand is forecast to fall and over supply remains an issue...

Finally, Gold has started to rise and sharply reverse recent losses...

Here's my point normally when we see equity falls and oil pricing crashes coupled with down grading of GDP forecasts around the globe - FX investors move en mass to the USD. While this did not happen this week due to a slightly dovish Fed - the underlying truth that the US will rise rate first remains firmly in place.

 This week especially if the doom and gloom continues I expect a 'run to quality' (or at least the safe haven) that is the USD and that may well stifle the upside potential of EURO and Cable for that matter.

News out of the middle eastern markets today is no better so it looks like this week will continue the slaughter.

Just my thoughts

Sean

The EURUSD breaks above the 1.1400 level, but the higher it goes, the higher the probabilities of seeing a bearish correction.

On Friday session the EURUSD pair rallied for the third straight day and closed well in the green near the high of the day on a wide range. The currency is setting its self to reach today, May’s high at 1.1460.

On Friday session EUR recorded significant growth for third consecutive day and closed at highest level against USD since mid-May. The euro rose by nearly 130 pips to 1.1366. The daily limit values were reached respectively at 1.1375 and 1.1228. The week was successful - EUR / USD is up by 2.3%. Current attitudes are positive but for continuing upward move is needed breakthrough of 1.1380 / 1.1400. Otherwise there is possible correction to 1.1290.

Just see that happens with oil right now - will be critical for euro/usd

EUR/USD update

The signal from last week Thursday (daily chart) broke as expected, as the weekly and monthly charts all had major entries in the same direction.
Major entry signals on the monthly chart do not form very often and therefore are powerful entries.

The signal from Thursday (daily chart, buy-stop @ 1.1213 + 1 pip) is now nearly 500 pips plus and is headed toward the GAP at 1.2000.

When trading long/term charts, the trick is to look at a higher time-frame as the trade is on, for orientation purposes.
Lower/faster time-frames are irritating and one can easily confuse a temporary profit taking swing, with a change in trend.

We trade only day/week/month charts and only use the 12/8/6/4 hour charts for the purpose of moving the SL.

In the meantime, DJIA, DAX, S&P, NASDQ are headed in the long-suspected south direction.
When looking at the long-term charts of these indices, the current move south could be just the beginning of a prolonged sell direction.

With price-bar formations, any chart in any time-frame can be traded, regardless of the market.
They work with forex just as well as they do with metals, indices, stocks or any other market.
A chart is a chart is a chart / that's how bar-formation traders see it.
No news, no eco-data, nobody's opinion, not even our own.
We simply go by the rules that we know.
There is never a guessing --- when there is a formation, it will be traded.
We only trade stop orders and never limit orders.

Inari posted:
It has been an interesting week in the FX world and in the larger investment world as a whole. Something is not quite right though and we should consider a number of factors before betting the house in the incoming week.

Firstly we have seen a huge sell off in global equities. Fear has returned to the stock markets mainly due to the news coming out of China.

The Yuan devaluations have had big ramifications not just to the economies of China's neighbours but right around the world and especially in the emerging markets.

Secondly the continued and worsening fall in commodity prices especially crude oil still shows no sign of reversing as demand is forecast to fall and over supply remains an issue...

Finally, Gold has started to rise and sharply reverse recent losses...

Here's my point normally when we see equity falls and oil pricing crashes coupled with down grading of GDP forecasts around the globe - FX investors move en mass to the USD. While this did not happen this week due to a slightly dovish Fed - the underlying truth that the US will rise rate first remains firmly in place.

 This week especially if the doom and gloom continues I expect a 'run to quality' (or at least the safe haven) that is the USD and that may well stifle the upside potential of EURO and Cable for that matter.

News out of the middle eastern markets today is no better so it looks like this week will continue the slaughter.

Just my thoughts

Sean

Which is why we should close positions daily. Any new news can cause the market to turn 500-800 pips in a week, causing you to hold a position for months looking to get back to break even.

Another Green day for the EUR/USD and the U.S stock market is facing selloff.

EUR/USD bounced off the resistance at 1.1712 but that is probably temporary. Should the pair break above that level it will likely reach the resistance at 1.1800 visible on the monthly filter chart.

On Monday session the single currency continued its strong performance against the dollar for a fourth day. The euro recorded the most profitable session since mid-March, adding 240 pips and closed at seven-month high of 1.1616. The daily limit values were recorded at 1.1704 and 1.1369. Ongoing concerns about the global economic development and the upcoming rise in US interest rates this year helped to boost the EUR / USD. Technical attitudes are positive and next target is 1.1710.

Sir, should one can sell around 1.1800+ for a short trade??? as I feel EUR will bounce more thanks

Yesterday the EURUSD rallied once again breaking above a daily resistance at 1.1556 although closed in the middle of the daily range, signs that the bulls are losing some strength. The currency is extreme overbought and we may see a pullback to the 1.1460 level before another push upward.

EUR/USD rebounded from highest price since January and now testing strong support line 1.14280. maybe I will go short under the support line.

sherifFares posted:
EUR/USD rebounded from highest price since January and now testing strong support line 1.14280. maybe I will go short under the support line.

 If it breaks below that support it might keep falling until it reaches target 1.1180.

I think it's time to buy again. SL under 1.14