Central Bank Signals Shake Majors | 31st July 2025

Majors React to Signals

Currency markets are on edge as central bank signals continue to drive volatility across major FX pairs. The Bank of Japan held rates steady, prompting weakness in the Yen across the board, while the Bank of Canada hinted at potential rate cuts, pressuring the Canadian Dollar. Meanwhile, firmer US Dollar demand lifted USD/CAD modestly, and the People’s Bank of China set a slightly higher Yuan midpoint. In the commodities space, WTI crude extended its rally as US sanctions on Russia stoked supply concerns.

WTI Crude Oil Forecast Forecast

Current Price and Context

WTI crude oil is trading just below the $70.00 mark after rallying sharply in response to U.S. threats of new sanctions on Russia. The prospect of tightening Russian oil exports has further pinched global supply, supporting bullish sentiment. Despite broadly calmer global risk appetite, traders remain focused on oil fundamentals. The market now watches upcoming supply data and any escalation in U.S.-Russia tensions for further direction.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Rising U.S. sanctions on Russia tighten supply expectations and boost crude prices.

US Economic Data: Mixed demand indicators suggest fragile global consumption, limiting further upside.

FOMC Outcome: A dovish Fed narrative could strengthen risk appetite, indirectly supporting energy assets.

Trade Policy: Broader risk sentiment recovers slightly amid easing trade concerns, reducing demand for havens like oil.

Monetary Policy: With the Fed likely to hold rates, inflation fear remains moderate but supports commodity interest.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Strong bullish momentum as prices test near $70.00.

Resistance: $70.00 handle followed by $71.20.

Support: $68.60 and $67.40 key support zones.

Forecast: Oil may continue testing $71–$72 if sanction rhetoric escalates further; downside remains limited near $68 unless fundamentals deteriorate.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Bullish sentiment dominates, underpinned by tightening supply outlooks.

Catalysts: Oil price direction will hinge on developments around U.S.-Russia sanctions, OPEC+ supply statements, and global demand data (including the EIA inventory report).

GBP/JPY Forecast

Current Price and Context

GBP/JPY has slipped to around 197.10 in Thursday’s Asian session after the Bank of Japan maintained its policy rate at 0.50%. The dovish stance reinforced by an upgraded inflation outlook is weighing on the Japanese Yen, but also breaching support levels for GBP/JPY. At the same time, soft UK labor market signals are increasing expectations of rate cuts from the Bank of England, adding downward pressure on sterling. Overall, investor attention is now firmly on Governor Ueda’s press conference for cues on future BoJ policy direction.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Elevated global uncertainty keeps risk appetites cautious, benefiting the Yen over the Pound.

US Economic Data: Mixed data support near-term dollar strength, indirectly pressuring GBP/JPY via yield trends.

FOMC Outcome: A steady Fed narrows opportunities for sterling to rally on potential rate divergence.

Trade Policy: Optimism surrounding the US–Japan trade deal offers limited support to GBP/JPY.

Monetary Policy: Diverging central bank policy expectations—BoJ holds while BoE hints at cuts—favor Yen strength even as inflation rises.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Short-term bearish correction within a broader sideways-to-bullish channel.

Resistance: 198.25 and then 199.45 based on prior price action.

Support: Immediate floor around 197.00, followed by stronger support at 196.80.Forecast: GBP/JPY may remain under pressure and test 196.80 if seller momentum continues; significant upside seems unlikely unless BoE or risk sentiment shifts materially.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Traders are cautious, with sterling-sensitive pairs facing headwinds amid increasing central bank divergence.

Catalysts: BoJ’s press conference commentary (on inflation, yield control, and rate path) is the main driver. UK labor data and BoE commentary will influence the outlook for GBP/JPY direction.

EUR/JPY Forecast

Current Price and Context

EUR/JPY has dropped to approximately 170.10, reversing gains after the Bank of Japan signaled continued dovish policy. Meanwhile, investor focus is shifting toward upcoming German HICP inflation data, which could impact ECB monetary outlook and influence EUR/JPY direction. The broader risk-off tone following USD strength also weighs on the pair, as safe-haven flows benefit the yen. As the BoJ and ECB diverge in policy expectations, EUR/JPY remains under pressure near key support levels.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Global political uncertainties support yen appreciation over euro gains.

US Economic Data: Mixed U.S. prints reinforce dollar strength and suppress euro performance.

FOMC Outcome: A steady or dovish Fed bolsters risk-off dynamics, favoring JPY.

Trade Policy: Limited new developments; overall risk sentiment is the prevailing influence.

Monetary Policy: ECB cautious ahead of inflation data, while BoJ remains firmly dovish, pushing EUR/JPY lower.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Short-term bearish momentum as the pair breaks below a recent range.

Resistance: 170.60 followed by 171.20 on recovery attempts.

Support: Closely watched floor is 170.00, with stronger support around 169.75.

Forecast: EUR/JPY is likely to remain under downward pressure unless German inflation surprises to the upside.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Traders are cautious, with global risk caution overshadowing ECB optimism.

Catalysts: German HICP inflation data and ECB commentary will determine if EUR gains traction or JPY dominance continues.

USD/CAD Forecast

Current Price and Context

USD/CAD is trading with modest strength around 1.3830, edging higher as the Bank of Canada left its key rate unchanged at 2.75%. The BoC adopted a cautious tone, warning that future rate cuts may be warranted if inflation softens, which has weighed on the Canadian Dollar. At the same time, stronger-than-expected U.S. GDP figures and a steady Federal Reserve contributed to broader USD strength. With the USD holding firm and BoC signaling flexibility, the pair appears set to test resistance levels while downside is becoming limited.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Elevated U.S.-Canada trade uncertainty continues to dampen CAD sentiment.

US Economic Data: Robust U.S. GDP growth reinforces dollar strength and supports USD/CAD.

FOMC Outcome: A steady-rate Fed stance adds to USD appeal amid diverging policy tone.

Trade Policy: Lingering uncertainty over final trade deals keeps volatility elevated.

Monetary Policy: BoC’s cautious stance and easing bias create a tailwind for USD/CAD.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Bullish breakout above 1.3800 reflects growing USD strength.

Resistance: 1.3850 followed by the mid-1.39s zone.

Support: 1.3800 targeted for immediate defense; lower buffer at 1.3750.

Forecast: USD/CAD may continue its ascent toward 1.3900 absent signs of CAD support. Significant pullbacks seem less likely unless trade or BoC tones shift.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Slightly bullish on USD as diverging central bank outlooks give the pair direction.

Catalysts: USD/CAD direction will be shaped by any change in BoC commentary, upcoming U.S. growth data, and updates on U.S.-Canada tariff negotiations.

USD/CNY Forecast

Current Price and Context

USD/CNY trades near 7.1490 following the PBoC’s weaker-than-expected reference rate fix of 7.1494, compared with the previous fix at 7.1441. This medium-strength fix diverges from market estimates and signals intent to stabilize the yuan amidst domestic slowdown and a stronger dollar backdrop. The mid-point was 568 pips firmer than Reuters forecast, marking the widest gap since late April and sparking exchange-rate support flows. Market attention is now focused on upcoming Chinese economic releases and how closely the spot yuan tracks the official guidance.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: No fresh drama—market focus remains on macro fundamentals and central bank guidance.

US Economic Data: Strong USD demand continues as U.S. data remains robust despite trade uncertainty.

FOMC Outcome: Potential dovish Fed signals could reinforce dollar softness but not necessarily translate into yuan strength.

Trade Policy: Ongoing trade tension rhetoric persists, though recent dialogue shows moderated escalation risks.

Monetary Policy: PBoC’s cautious midpoint signals and liquidity operations suggest intervention preference to contain volatility.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Mild upward drift in USD/CNY while PBoC allows limited controlled moves.

Resistance: 7.1550, followed by 7.1620 if intervention eases.

Support: Base support at 7.1440, then 7.1300 if guidance softens.

Forecast: Tight range likely between 7.1440–7.1550; a break outside the band may prompt onshore intervention.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Cautiously stable as the market continues tracking PBoC calibrated guidance.

Catalysts: Follow-up Chinese economic data (PMI, industrial production) and further PBoC commentary will determine next directional bias for USD/CNY.

Wrap-up

With global central banks reinforcing diverging policy paths, traders are recalibrating positions across currencies and commodities. Attention now turns to upcoming inflation data from the Eurozone and North America, which could further shape monetary policy expectations. As market sentiment shifts, volatility is likely to persist across the majors.

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