Dollar Stays Subdued on Fed Cut Bets; Gold Shines, EUR and AUD in Focus | 10th September 2025

Gold Gains, Dollar Softens

Global markets started the day on a cautious but constructive tone as Fed rate cut bets continued to dominate sentiment. Precious metals shone, with gold (XAU/USD) regaining traction and silver (XAG/USD) edging higher on safe-haven demand. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) held below 98.00, pressured by revised NFP data, while EUR/USD slipped toward 1.1700 on diverging policy signals from the Fed and the ECB. Commodity currencies like the Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) found support as the greenback eased, reflecting investors’ cautious optimism.

Gold Forecast (XAU/USD)

Current Price and Context

Gold (XAU/USD) has regained upside momentum, trading near $3,620–$3,630, as renewed trader conviction in aggressive Fed rate cuts collides with resurgent safe-haven demand amid persistent geopolitical tensions. A modest dollar uptick and improved risk tone have provided mild headwinds, but with inflation data and central bank pressure shaping sentiment, bullion remains firmly on the defensive. Markets are keenly awaiting U.S. PPI and CPI reads, which could either bolster or temper the current bullish setup.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Escalating global tensions continue to push investors toward safe-haven assets like gold.

US Economic Data: Elevated Fed rate-cut pricing, prompted by soft labor and inflation data, underpins gold support.

FOMC Outcome: Markets are heavily pricing in multiple rate cuts, making non-yielding gold more attractive.

Trade Policy: Uncertainties persist in global trade dynamics, further bolstering safe-haven demand.

Monetary Policy: Dovish Fed expectations reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, fueling investor interest.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Uptrend remains strong, though near-term momentum shows signs of consolidation amid overbought conditions.

Resistance: $3,650, then $3,700 if momentum sustains.

Support: $3,600, followed by $3,550.

Forecast: Near-term retests at $3,650 are likely. A hold above $3,600 supports further upside with risk toward $3,550 on a correction.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Bullish, backed by strong rate-cut expectations and resumed safe-haven flows.

Catalysts: U.S. inflation releases (PPI, CPI) and any Fed commentary are key near-term triggers.

Silver Forecast (XAG/USD)

Current Price and Context

Silver (XAG/USD) extended its recovery, drifting higher toward $41.00, buoyed by renewed bets on a larger Fed rate cut following soft U.S. labor market and inflation data. The metal has gained traction as Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar remain under pressure, enhancing the appeal of non-yielding assets. While industrial demand signals from China remain mixed, investors are largely focused on the Fed’s policy trajectory, which continues to shape silver’s near-term momentum.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Lingering uncertainties, particularly in global trade, support safe-haven flows into silver.

US Economic Data: Recent weaker-than-expected U.S. labor reports bolstered expectations of aggressive Fed action.

FOMC Outcome: Speculation of a 75 bps cut has grown, amplifying silver’s upside potential.

Trade Policy: China’s trade surplus suggests stable export activity, indirectly offering some support to industrial metals.

Monetary Policy: Fed easing continues to weigh on the USD, adding support to silver’s upward trajectory.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Silver maintains a strong bullish bias but shows signs of consolidation near $41.00.

Resistance: $41.50, followed by $42.20 if momentum persists.

Support: $40.50 initially, with stronger backing at $40.00.

Forecast: A sustained break above $41.50 could unlock further gains, while dips toward $40.50 may attract buyers.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Bullish, supported by Fed rate cut expectations and safe-haven demand.

Catalysts: Upcoming U.S. CPI and PPI data, Fed commentary, and developments in China’s industrial output remain key triggers.

EUR/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

EUR/USD retreated toward 1.1700, weighed down by renewed demand for the U.S. dollar as markets continue to price in aggressive Fed easing while the ECB maintains a more cautious stance. The pair’s decline reflects short-term profit-taking after recent gains, even as broader sentiment remains tilted toward further euro resilience should the Fed move more decisively on rate cuts. Investors are closely monitoring Eurozone economic data alongside U.S. inflation releases for near-term direction.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing trade and political frictions keep volatility elevated in FX markets.

US Economic Data: Softer labor market signals continue to reinforce expectations of Fed policy easing.

FOMC Outcome: Markets increasingly anticipate a 50–75 bps cut, limiting dollar strength on dips.

Trade Policy: Eurozone’s trade balance stability lends some underlying support to the euro.

Monetary Policy: Divergence between Fed easing and ECB’s cautious stance shapes EUR/USD flows. 

Technical Outlook

Trend: Consolidation with a mild bearish tilt near 1.1700.

Resistance: 1.1750, then 1.1800 if recovery momentum builds.

Support: 1.1680 initially, with stronger support at 1.1650.

Forecast: A break below 1.1680 could expose 1.1650, while sustained recovery above 1.1750 may restore bullish bias.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Neutral to slightly bearish as traders await confirmation of Fed policy direction.

Catalysts: U.S. CPI and PPI releases, ECB commentary, and Eurozone GDP revisions will be pivotal.

US Dollar Index Forecast (DXY)

Current Price and Context

The US Dollar Index (DXY) remained capped below 98.00, extending its recent weakness as traders factored in revised U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls data that highlighted softening labor market conditions. The report added weight to expectations that the Federal Reserve may deliver an outsized rate cut, undermining dollar strength despite lingering demand for safe-haven assets. Market participants remain cautious ahead of U.S. CPI data, which could reinforce or challenge dovish expectations.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Global growth concerns and trade-related uncertainties cap risk sentiment.

US Economic Data: Downward revisions to NFP highlight labor market fragility.

FOMC Outcome: Rising odds of a 50–75 bps cut weigh heavily on the dollar.

Trade Policy: U.S. trade negotiations remain a secondary risk factor for dollar flows.

Monetary Policy: Expectations of aggressive Fed easing overshadow policy divergence elsewhere. 

Technical Outlook

Trend: Bearish bias below 98.00.

Resistance: 98.20, followed by 98.50.

Support: 97.40, then 97.00 if momentum accelerates.

Forecast: Unless the index regains 98.20, bearish pressure could extend toward 97.00.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Cautious with a clear dovish tilt toward further Fed easing.

Catalysts: Upcoming U.S. CPI/PPI data, Fed speeches, and global risk appetite shifts.

Australian Dollar Forecast (AUD/USD)

Current Price and Context

The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) edged higher, reclaiming ground near 0.6660, as the U.S. dollar trimmed earlier gains amid mounting expectations of aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts. While China’s latest CPI data signaled subdued domestic demand, the Australian dollar managed to stay resilient, supported by firmer commodity prices and improved risk appetite. The policy divergence between the Fed’s dovish tilt and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s relatively cautious stance continues to shape the pair’s outlook.

Key Drivers

China’s Economic Data: Softer CPI underscores weak consumer demand, a headwind for AUD.

Commodity Prices: Stabilization in key exports (iron ore, coal) lends moderate support.

 Fed Policy Outlook: Expectations of a 50–75 bps cut weigh on the USD.

Risk Sentiment: Equity market stabilization supports higher-beta currencies like AUD.

RBA Policy: The RBA’s cautious approach helps anchor AUD downside risks. 

Technical Outlook

Trend: Consolidation with mild bullish bias above 0.6650.

Resistance: 0.6700, followed by 0.6740.

Support: 0.6620, then 0.6580.

Forecast: Sustained closes above 0.6700 may open room toward 0.6740, while downside is cushioned above 0.6620.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Cautiously bullish for AUD amid softer USD backdrop.

Catalysts: Upcoming U.S. CPI/PPI data, Chinese economic releases, and Fed guidance.

Wrap-up

Markets remain finely balanced between soft U.S. economic data and expectations of aggressive Fed action in the weeks ahead. With gold and silver benefiting from safe-haven flows, and the dollar under pressure, traders are watching upcoming central bank guidance and macro releases to confirm direction. Attention now turns to U.S. inflation data and further Fed commentary, which will likely set the tone for the next move across currencies and commodities.

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