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Backtest and Reality
Členom od Nov 21, 2011
1601 príspevkov
Jun 23, 2013 at 18:19
mapick posted:
yes, of course.... and with 100 lines in mql4 you earn the word
I alway make a simple question... what's your job? are you this night to see how it starts and tomorrow to trade?
no, I immagine you are in your affidable backtesting... and doing another job to live!
I have recently quitted my job to turn full time trading and I will show you that with my own EA under 100 lines code I will get a lot of pips!
forex_trader_65453
Členom od Feb 12, 2012
11 príspevkov
Jun 24, 2013 at 17:23
I agree! it's so simple
http://pipRaptor.net
new account starting from today? I'm closign today trading and I put here my account
good luck!
http://pipRaptor.net
new account starting from today? I'm closign today trading and I put here my account
good luck!
Členom od Aug 01, 2010
96 príspevkov
Jun 26, 2013 at 06:47
A welldone backtest is the first step to a forwardtest.
I don´t know a system that doesn´t work in backtest but works in forwardtest.
The forwardtest should be done with real money to test all the real conditions.
Not all your money, just a bit of it.
Any backtests have limitations, but it will give us some light about the limitations of the system before the Real Trading.
Have a nice trade.
Tradingboy
I don´t know a system that doesn´t work in backtest but works in forwardtest.
The forwardtest should be done with real money to test all the real conditions.
Not all your money, just a bit of it.
Any backtests have limitations, but it will give us some light about the limitations of the system before the Real Trading.
Have a nice trade.
Tradingboy
I Trade You Profit. Forex is suitable for smart and patient people...
Členom od Jul 17, 2012
274 príspevkov
Jul 01, 2013 at 11:11
for me, frankly speaking, after backtesting, it always makes my ea perform badly when doing forwardtesting, so i make a drastic steps, completely abandoned backtesting 😈 , instead, do optimization while forwardtesting 😎 ..
surprisingly, my ea starting to make me money... 😲
surprisingly, my ea starting to make me money... 😲
Past experience usually helps present self
forex_trader_100532
Členom od Nov 24, 2012
38 príspevkov
Jul 04, 2013 at 21:13
In my case, the first time I can taste a consistent profit because I did the backtest. Yes, you will never 100% believe that the backtest result will be same as forward test, or actual trading.
I don't know how to program so I used spreadsheet to backtest my system. As far as I concern, the things make the result in reality differ from the backtest result because of,
- Human error (inconsistant following trading plan)
- Market uncertainty (well, that's the case...)
Through practice I think we can overcome human error. As for market uncertainty, well, we do need to calibrate a little bit of our system in certain period. Our trading system need to be robust and flexible. I do monthly analysis to identify weakness in my system. If I detect one, then some setting need to change. So far its ok.
I strongly feel trade without backtest is like driving car with eyes close. At least it give us more confidence in our trade. Of course, after backtest, we need to do the forward test for optimization. After this then the system will complete. I dont think any system will forever work unless we do the calibration in certain period or something like that.
Have a nice pips!
I don't know how to program so I used spreadsheet to backtest my system. As far as I concern, the things make the result in reality differ from the backtest result because of,
- Human error (inconsistant following trading plan)
- Market uncertainty (well, that's the case...)
Through practice I think we can overcome human error. As for market uncertainty, well, we do need to calibrate a little bit of our system in certain period. Our trading system need to be robust and flexible. I do monthly analysis to identify weakness in my system. If I detect one, then some setting need to change. So far its ok.
I strongly feel trade without backtest is like driving car with eyes close. At least it give us more confidence in our trade. Of course, after backtest, we need to do the forward test for optimization. After this then the system will complete. I dont think any system will forever work unless we do the calibration in certain period or something like that.
Have a nice pips!
Členom od Nov 21, 2011
1601 príspevkov
Jul 13, 2013 at 11:46
The problem of http://www.tickstory.com/ from DuKascopy source is that they provide a poor average ticks per minute.
Členom od Jul 22, 2013
23 príspevkov
Jul 22, 2013 at 13:58
As for me, back tests are to be done every time. At least theycould help you to understand the way the EA works and to figureout the settings you are going to use. Even if the results are not very truthful, you will know how the EA operates and what you need to chnage.
Členom od Apr 14, 2013
398 príspevkov
Jul 22, 2013 at 14:38
Well said Sharle. The reality is most people don't like backtesting, because they aren't able to reproduce the results in live. Yet, that wouldn't be an issue of backtesting. That would be an issue of the actual trader not following the rules he/she is following while backtesting. You typically see this with people who use indicators which re-paints.
Focus on pip-drawdown
Členom od Jul 22, 2013
23 príspevkov
Jul 24, 2013 at 07:18
The other thing that i'm thinking about is the algorithm that the EA based on. Like if it is short-time trading robots they won't actually give you the correct result since they are out the real working conditions and they have more time to react on the price changing. But if robot is based on some kind of a system that works according to the long-term price changing logic, the EA back tests result are to be closer to the live trading.
Členom od Jul 29, 2013
13 príspevkov
Jul 29, 2013 at 14:10
I run 3 charts for everything I trade. One live dollar trading, next demo and last theoretical (data only) For me, they need to mirror one another +/- a trade or two. DD, equity etc. all need to line up. Also, if you refresh the theoretical chart and the signals move and or results change, go back to the drawing board. Mine match and signals do not move. That does not mean the market conditions will be the same and therefore future profits or drawdowns can and will be different without additional trade management and even then it will be off to some degree.
The faster one trades, the more critical everything is. I trade very fast, but I have been doing this for more than 25 years and learned a lot about what not to do. I joined this site yesterday. Link to my results here, if you want to get a peak at the plus and minus of higher trading frequencies.
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/granitepeakibc/granitepeak-demo/650106
The faster one trades, the more critical everything is. I trade very fast, but I have been doing this for more than 25 years and learned a lot about what not to do. I joined this site yesterday. Link to my results here, if you want to get a peak at the plus and minus of higher trading frequencies.
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/granitepeakibc/granitepeak-demo/650106
1000 pips a day will keep the Doctor away
forex_trader_110955
Členom od Feb 06, 2013
61 príspevkov
Jul 30, 2013 at 05:59
Backtest has no meaning at all... Worth nothing
Členom od Mar 13, 2013
155 príspevkov
Jul 30, 2013 at 09:46
I think the backtest is very important, it helps to know if our strategy is fiable.et also test an idea quickly
Then test it on a demo before going live account.
I'm working on Forextester with data of 5 years and it is already five months past we live.
here is the link of our strategy in developing forextester
http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=1448
and the account is published on Philippe_Myfxbook
Hiroo59
Then test it on a demo before going live account.
I'm working on Forextester with data of 5 years and it is already five months past we live.
here is the link of our strategy in developing forextester
http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=1448
and the account is published on Philippe_Myfxbook
Hiroo59
Členom od Mar 20, 2010
52 príspevkov
Aug 01, 2013 at 17:59
Backtesting is the only quantifiable way to ensure a strategy conceived is viable and statistically worthy to trade on a forward test. A robust backtest over several years plus a robust demo forward test over several months/years allows us to feel we can trade the system with real money.
“Ah, but a man's reach should exceed his grasp, or what's a heaven for?” Robert Browning
Členom od Apr 14, 2013
398 príspevkov
Aug 01, 2013 at 20:20
http://www.myfxbook.com/members/Master_Kiwa/pipdrawdown/651838
That is what your stats would look like if you had discipline in trading your back tested system.
That is what your stats would look like if you had discipline in trading your back tested system.
Focus on pip-drawdown
Členom od Apr 14, 2013
398 príspevkov
Aug 01, 2013 at 20:23
😎😇
Prílohy:
Focus on pip-drawdown
Členom od Jul 29, 2013
13 príspevkov
Aug 01, 2013 at 20:38
If done properly... otherwise its an illusion
1000 pips a day will keep the Doctor away
Členom od Apr 14, 2013
398 príspevkov
Aug 01, 2013 at 21:06
Well it was done correct there.
Focus on pip-drawdown
Členom od Mar 13, 2013
155 príspevkov
Aug 02, 2013 at 07:32
Členom od Apr 14, 2013
398 príspevkov
Aug 04, 2013 at 19:51
HIRO you can do so with yadix.com
Focus on pip-drawdown
Členom od Apr 14, 2013
398 príspevkov
Aug 04, 2013 at 19:52
Actually that was a commission I received from an account I was managing. I then turned the 36 to 214. :p
Focus on pip-drawdown
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