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Backtest and Reality

jmlforex
May 19 2013 at 10:33
17 príspevkov
PipGnostic
TheCyclist
May 19 2013 at 11:48
724 príspevkov
Not MT.

Different CPU's will give different results. If you're online and offline will give a different result and MT makes up data as it goes along if there isn't any.

The back testing is useless.

You need to be on a proper language like JAVA and good data.

Higher time frames might be better, but I have never matched a single days trading to a back test for the same day. Try it, trade for a day or 5 then run a back test on those same 5 days and see if they are even close.

CrazyTraderfx (CrazyTrader)
May 19 2013 at 13:37
1718 príspevkov
It depends what kind of EA you are backtesting. If it's scalping then to do backtest you need to do this way.
https://eareview.net/tick-data

Backtest is more to check out how your EA is running in order to correct codes if it doesn't work properly.

SiamFXNET
May 19 2013 at 17:54
72 príspevkov
CrazyTrader posted:
It depends what kind of EA you are backtesting. If it's scalping then to do backtest you need to do this way.
https://eareview.net/tick-data

Backtest is more to check out how your EA is running in order to correct codes if it doesn't work properly.


There are much better ways than Birt's method.
https://www.tickstory.com/

Results from live and backtest do match if the EA is coded correctly to operate on per tick commands.

SiamFXNET
May 19 2013 at 17:56
72 príspevkov
jmlforex posted:
Do you trust backtest ?


Only a backtest that we do ourselves with our own EA. We can't trust others.

JohnKrema
May 19 2013 at 19:54
1 príspevkov
CrazyTraderfx (CrazyTrader)
May 19 2013 at 21:24
1718 príspevkov
JohnKrema posted:
Nope. Never trust backtesting.


I do beleive my backtesting.
Finding the right parameters for a delimited period of time on a particular instrument doesn't mean you are going to win in live.

CrazyTraderfx (CrazyTrader)
May 19 2013 at 21:26
1718 príspevkov
SiamFXNET posted:
CrazyTrader posted:
It depends what kind of EA you are backtesting. If it's scalping then to do backtest you need to do this way.
https://eareview.net/tick-data

Backtest is more to check out how your EA is running in order to correct codes if it doesn't work properly.


There are much better ways than Birt's method.
https://www.tickstory.com/

Results from live and backtest do match if the EA is coded correctly to operate on per tick commands.


I have tested it, it's fast and really easy. Great tool thank you

petays
May 20 2013 at 14:23
86 príspevkov
I tested my EA for years back using only M1 open tick data and then run it on real account for two months and the results were pretty much the same we expected. We had about 5 trades a day, TP somewhere between 10-20 pips. Market orders only.
I used Forex Tester 2 for backtests because MT4 tester is so slow when you have more trades open (as we had). FT2 is about 10-100x faster depending how many open trades you have.
But it really depends on your strategy how to test it to get reliable results.
Sometimes it is favourable to just use bar close/open to do calculations because it filters out some spikes in tick data. And this speeds testing a lot!

Being Bearish or Bullish Makes No Difference
amktrade
May 20 2013 at 19:53
3 príspevkov
I have found backtesting on MT4 to be a useful guide on live performance, but you will get differences on live and backtested results, due to broker slippage, down time and other factors. And yes, backtesting on the bigger time frames gives more accurate results compared with live results.

Pacific Scalp (Alpscalp)
May 28 2013 at 19:36
113 príspevkov
Depends on modeling quality, type and timeframe of trading and broker for me

Iroa
May 29 2013 at 09:04
37 príspevkov
Does tick story fix that 4gb limitation on backtests? I remember I was using birt's method and not been able to test all the years of data consecutively was the only downside.

Daniel (danielv)
Jun 06 2013 at 19:35
35 príspevkov
thanks, for the link it's great :)

abdellah (vamoscapitos)
Jun 19 2013 at 19:57
4 príspevkov
i use BACKTEST but i don't like it because it shows me incredible results of my strategy . it's better to use it for watching how indicators moves .

Master_Kiwa
Jun 19 2013 at 23:07
402 príspevkov
Backtesing proves several important points. One of the most important would be that humans fail to be consistent. We may have a system which works great for us in back test. Yet, in live our results never translate. In almost 100% of the cases it is because we gain bais to a certain position. Which in reality abandons the system which we are back testing. Many of us use 'rules' just as we input them into indicators or EA's [If this happens, then do this] Yet in live it is very rare to do the same. All in all, to make great amount of money in forex. You must trade like a robot. That is with no BIAS, or emotion towards any direction.

mapick
Jun 21 2013 at 16:12
15 príspevkov
Hi, I developed over 500 EAs as software engeneer, for free for amateurs (a 95%) and for professionals (very few... and not in mql4)

My conclusion is simple, don't trust backtesting!

...a part it's only an amateur game, you can't do it in professional systems

CrazyTraderfx (CrazyTrader)
Jun 21 2013 at 16:26
1718 príspevkov
Backtest is very usefull to check if what you developped works as it is supposed to do (entry, exist, sl, tp, loop....) in order to avoid some bad surprise in live.

Even if on MT4 you could get an easily 100% quality model, to be sussessfull while you backtest the past doesn't mean you will make profit in the future.

mapick
Jun 22 2013 at 08:10
15 príspevkov
backtesting?

do you again believe in the 10 minutes money?

the multinationals spends every year bilions and bilions in analysts, engineers, full time employers, and you in ten minutes make the money

of course... you do the backtesting!

commanderfx9
Jun 23 2013 at 06:18
9 príspevkov
Backtest with real tick data then....real tick data is just the same as a live market. The velocity of the price, the exact moment of price surging up and down and the the way the tick behaves are all recorded in a real tick data. Whomever said otherwise doesn't know what they are talking about/have limited knowledge.

mapick
Jun 23 2013 at 11:01
15 príspevkov
yes, of course.... and with 100 lines in mql4 you earn the word

I alway make a simple question... what's your job? are you this night to see how it starts and tomorrow to trade?

no, I immagine you are in your affidable backtesting... and doing another job to live!

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