ATFX Market Outlook 10th September 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 10th September 2025

Slowing U.S. Jobs Push Gold Off Record, Stocks Power to Fresh Peaks

Market HighlightU.S. employment data was sharply revised down, showing that Nonfarm Payrolls increased by an average of only about 71,000 jobs per month, compared to the previously estimated 147,000. U.S. equities closed at new highs on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq setting record closes as UnitedHealth shares climbed. The downward revision in jobs data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon cut rates to support economic growth. The Dow gained 0.43%, the S&P 500 rose 0.27%, and the Nasdaq advanced 0.37%.

The U.S. Dollar rebounded against most major currencies except the Yen, recovering losses from the previous session as investors positioned ahead of key inflation data due this week. EUR/USD fell 0.5% to 1.1706, pushing the Dollar Index up 0.4% to 97.78. GBP/USD slipped 0.14% to 1.3524.

Overnight, gold briefly surged to a fresh all-time high of $3,673.95/oz before pulling back to close lower. Oil prices climbed after the Israeli military launched a strike in Doha targeting Hamas leaders, escalating its years-long campaign in the Middle East.

Key Outlook

The market focus today is on U.S. August Producer Price Index (PPI) data. The PPI is expected to hold steady at an annual growth rate of 3.3%, reflecting continued price pressures on the production side. However, markets broadly believe the release will not alter expectations for a Fed rate cut later this month.

Key Data and Events Today:

20:30 US PPI MoM AUG **  

22:30 EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change **

Tomorrow:

07:50 JP PPI MoM AUG ** 

20:15 ECB Interest Rate Decision *** 

20:30 US CPI YoY AUG ***  

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims *** 

20:45 ECB Press Conference *** 

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1739/1.1760

· Support: 1.1651/1.1631

EUR/USD retreated to 1.1705 after failing to hold gains near 1.1780, pressured by a rebounding Dollar despite Fed cut bets on the -911K payrolls revision. Technically, rejection at 1.1739 and a break below 1.1700 opens risk toward 1.1650, with the ECB’s policy decision and U.S. inflation data in focus.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3575/1.3602

· Support: 1.3440/1.3415

GBP/USD failed to sustain above 1.3550, reversing lower as dollar demand strengthened on deep U.S. payroll revisions. With no UK data, attention shifts to U.S. CPI, which will shape the Fed’s September move. Technically, the upside remains capped below 1.3575, while a break under 1.3440 opens room for a deeper pullback.

USDJPY

  Resistance: 148.05/148.39

· Support: 146.97/146.64

USD/JPY slipped to 147.35 as Fed rate cut bets pressured the dollar following a record 911k payroll revision. However, yen gains were capped by political uncertainty after PM Ishiba’s resignation, keeping the pair locked in the 146.97–148.05 range ahead of U.S. PPI data.

US Crude Oil Futures (OCT)

· Resistance: 63.75/64.28

· Support: 62.54/61.99

WTI crude settled at $62.63 after briefly spiking on Israel’s attack on Qatar but pared gains as the U.S. assured no further escalation. OPEC+’s modest output hike and Russia sanctions risks kept prices supported, with technical eyeing $63.75 resistance and $62.54 support.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 3655/3674

· Support: 3592/3573

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 41.12/41.67

· Support: 39.88/39.33

Gold hit a fresh record high of $3,674.36, supported by Fed rate cut bets and Middle East tensions after Israel struck Hamas leaders in Doha. Technically, the metal is consolidating above the $3,620 pivot, with resistance at $3,655–$3,674. A breakout could target $3,700–$3,750, while support sits at $3,592, where dip-buying interest is likely to emerge.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 45841/46023

· Support: 45482/45250

The Dow Futures rose 0.43% to 45,711.34, led by healthcare and banking shares, while utilities capped gains. Optimism over earnings and AI sectors supported sentiment. Technically, price trades in an ascending channel, with support at 45,482 and resistance at 45,841. Holding above 45,482 favors a move toward 45,841–46,023, while a break below support risks a short-term pullback.

NAS100

· Resistance: 23969/24085

· Support: 23704/23586

The NAS100 rose 0.37% to 23,877, hitting a fresh record high on tech and AI optimism. Year-to-date, the index is up 13%, with focus now on U.S. PPI and CPI for Fed guidance. Technically, price is pressing toward resistance at 23,969, with support at 23,704. A breakout above resistance could target higher, while holding above support keeps the uptrend intact.

BTC

· Resistance: 113545/114742

· Support: 109668/ 108451

Bitcoin trades near $111k, supported by Fed rate cut bets but capped by doubts over corporate treasury buying and weakness in crypto stocks. Markets price a 90% chance of a 25bp cut in September. BTC is consolidating between 109,668 support and 113,545 resistance. A breakout could target 116k–118k, while a breakdown risks 108k–106k.

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