ATFX Market Outlook 3rd June 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 3rd June 2025

Wall Street Shakes Off Trade Fears as Safe-Havens Soar

Market HighlightDespite U.S. manufacturing contracting for a third consecutive month in May, U.S. stocks began June on a positive note. Investors remained cautiously optimistic about trade negotiations between the U.S. and its partners, despite President Trump issuing a new threat to double tariffs on imported steel and aluminium. The Dow rose 0.08%, the S&P 500 gained 0.4%, and the Nasdaq climbed 0.67%.

Longer-term U.S. Treasury yields edged higher, while the dollar broadly weakened, erasing last week’s gains. Markets reassessed the potential impact of Trump’s tariff agenda on economic growth and inflation. The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.6% to 98.75, approaching the three-year low of 97.923 seen at the end of April. EUR/USD hit a six-week high.

Gold surged more than 2%, reaching a three-week high as a weaker dollar, geopolitical tensions, and economic uncertainty drove demand for safe-haven assets. Spot gold rose 2.7% to $3,379.06 per ounce, briefly hitting its highest level since May 8. Oil prices climbed nearly 3% as wildfires in Canada’s oil-producing regions threatened supply, offsetting OPEC+’s plan to continue production increases. Tariff-related pressure on the dollar also helped support crude.

Key Outlook

Today’s focus will be on the Eurozone’s preliminary CPI data for May. Headline inflation is expected to ease slightly to 2.0% (previous: 2.2%). A softer-than-expected reading would increase the likelihood of a European Central Bank rate cut later this week.

Later in the U.S. session, the April JOLTs job openings report is due, with the number expected to dip to 7.10 million (previous: 7.192 million). The data may provide early clues about the state of the U.S. labor market ahead of Friday’s nonfarm payrolls.

Key Data and Events Today:

15:50 BoJ Governor Ueda Speaks **

17:00 EU CPI YoY Flash MAY ** 

22:00 US JOLTS Job Openings and Factory Orders APR ** 

Tomorrow

04:30 US API Weekly Crude Oil Stock ***

08:30 JP Services & Composite PMI MAY ** 

15:55 EU GERMANY Services & Composite PMI Final MAY ** 

16:00 EU Services & Composite PMI Final MAY ** 

16:30 GB Services & Composite PMI Final MAY ** 

20:15 US ADP Employment Change MAY ***

21:45 BoC Interest Rate Decision *** 

22:00 US ISM Services PMI MAY *** 

22:30 BoC Press Conference *** 

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1469 / 1.1501

· Support: 1.1388 / 1.1364

The EUR/USD climbed to 1.1435, its highest since late April, supported by a weaker dollar and growing expectations for an ECB rate cut this week. Technically, the pair broke above the descending trendline and is retesting it as support. Holding above 1.1388 could open the door to challenge resistance near 1.1469.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3592 / 1.3613

· Support: 1.3481 / 1.3455

GBP/USD rebounded above 1.3550 on Monday as the US Dollar weakened amid rising trade tensions. Trump’s tariff threats and the BoE's cautious guidance bolstered the Pound. Technically, it broke above the 200-day EMA and bullish trendlines, targeting fresh two-year highs near 1.3592.

USDJPY

· Resistance: 143.21 / 143.70

· Support: 142.11/141.62

USD/JPY dropped to 142.85, erasing last week’s gains as safe-haven flows strengthened the yen. Ongoing U.S. tariff tensions and concerns about inflation weighed heavily on the dollar. Technically, the pair remains stable above the rising trendline; failure to reclaim 143.70 may lead to a test of 142.11 or even 141.62 support.

US Crude Oil Futures (JULY)

· Resistance: 63.82/ 64.30

· Support: 62.19/ 61.80

WTI crude surged nearly 4% on Monday to $62.52 per barrel, as wildfires in Alberta threatened Canadian supply and geopolitical tensions escalated. This overshadowed OPEC+’s decision to continue output hikes for a third consecutive month. Technically, prices remain supported above the bullish trendline, and holding above $62.19 may pave the way toward the $64.30 resistance zone.

Spot Gold

· Resistance: 3393/3411

· Support: 3347/3334

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 34.80/34.93

· Support: 34.12/33.96

Spot gold rose to $3,390 per ounce, reaching a three-week high with over 2% daily gains. The weaker dollar and escalating geopolitical tensions boosted safe-haven demand. Technically, gold has surged above its descending trendline. A pullback towards the $3,347 area may encounter support, paving the way for a test of the $3,393 - $3,411 resistance level.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 42623/42843

· Support: 42100/41924

The Dow inched up 0.08% to 42,305.48. Steel stocks rose on trade optimism, while automakers lagged behind. Technically, the price is consolidating near an ascending trendline and approaching resistance around 42,623. A breakout above this level could trigger further bullish momentum.

NAS100

· Resistance: 21695/22171

· Support: 21180/20729

The NAS100 rose 0.67% to 19,242.61, supported by declining U.S. yields and risk-off flows. Technically, the price remains within an upward channel and is testing mid-range support. A rebound here could lead to a retest of the 22,171 high. Traders are awaiting Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls and this week’s ECB guidance.

 BTC

· Resistance: 107712/109355

· Support: 105057/103729

Bitcoin has rebounded from the $103,713 support and has reclaimed the ascending trendline. The price is now targeting $107,712, with a potential move towards $109,355 if the momentum holds. Despite signs of long-term holders exiting and outflows of stablecoins, recent withdrawals from Coinbase and technical recovery suggest that short-term upside remains in play.

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