Brent - Why Is Oil Falling?

Fresh strikes on Iran should push oil higher, but Brent trades near $93 instead. The market is betting on a peace deal, not escalation, while China's imports hit an eight-year low and OPEC+ raises output. Yet the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, and today's CPI report could trigger sharp moves. Is the bullish case collapsing, or is this just a temporary pause before the next surge?

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The fresh strikes on Iran were launched last night, with new waves still coming. Normally, that headline alone would send oil sharply higher. Instead, Brent trades near $93 today, below yesterday's close. What's going on?

The market is reading the strikes as pressure, not as a new war. Israel and Iran agreed this week to stop attacking each other. Trump says the talks with Tehran are in their final stage and that the conflict could be over within two weeks. Traders are betting on a deal, not on escalation.

Two more things are weighing on oil. China, the world's biggest oil buyer, cut its imports to the lowest level in more than eight years. And OPEC+ keeps raising production quotas, adding more supply for July.

But this view is fragile. The Strait of Hormuz is still blocked, and if Iran responds to the strikes with force, or the talks collapse, oil can jump back above $98 very quickly. Today's US inflation report adds one more reason for sharp moves across all markets.

Brent key levels:Resistance $95, then $98.Support $89.50, then $87.

Watching: Iran's response to the strikes, peace talk headlines, today's US inflation report (CPI).

By Born2trade market research department

Risk Disclaimer: All research and/or forecasts above reflect the author's personal opinion and cannot be treated as trading advice. Born2trade is not responsible for any trading results based on any information in this article. Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital. You may lose all of your invested funds. Forex and CFD trading may not be suitable for all investors. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and, if necessary, seek independent advice.

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EURUSD	1.16035	GBPUSD	1.34224	AUDUSD	0.70747
USDJPY	160.449	USDCAD	1.39915	USDCHF	0.79345