ATFX Market Outlook 10th July 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 10th July 2025

Nasdaq Leads Wall Street Rally Despite Trump’s Tariff Threats

Market HighlightU.S. President Donald Trump announced new tariffs on seven countries, stating earlier this week that a 25% tariff would be imposed on Japan and other trade partners starting in August. Despite this, Wall Street closed higher on Wednesday, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq leading the gains. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes raised hopes that Trump’s tariff measures, despite their inflationary risks, would not prevent rate cuts this year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.49%, the S&P 500 gained 0.61%, and the Nasdaq advanced 0.94%.

The Fed’s minutes revealed limited support for a rate cut in July and expressed concerns that tariffs could lead to higher inflation. The U.S. Dollar Index dipped slightly by 0.003% to 97.545. USD/JPY hovered near a two-week high before slipping 0.18% to 146.35. The EUR/USD fell 0.09% to 1.171.

Gold prices edged up as investors closely watched ongoing trade talks between the U.S. and its partners, although a stronger dollar capped further gains. Spot gold rose 0.39% to $3,313.35 per ounce, after briefly hitting its lowest level since June 30 earlier in the session. Oil prices held steady as markets balanced strong U.S. gasoline demand with Red Sea shipping attacks and looming copper tariffs from the U.S.

Key Outlook

Tonight’s focus is on the U.S. initial jobless claims, expected to rise slightly to 235,000 (previous: 233,000). If confirmed, this would mark the first increase in five weeks, potentially reigniting concerns over the labor market and broader economic outlook.

Key Data and Events Today: 

14:00 EU Germany CPI **

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims *** 

Tomorrow

14:00 GB GDP MoM MAY *** 

16:00 IEA Monthly Report *** 

20:30 CA Unemployment Rate JUN ** 

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1791/1.1808

· Support: 1.1716/1.1698

EUR/USD dipped to 1.1716 (-0.09%) as the dollar firmed on renewed tariff threats, though the EU may be exempt. Technically, prices rebounded from the 1.1716 support zone and may retest it before targeting 1.1791. As long as support holds, the bullish bias remains intact.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3687/1.3719

· Support: 1.3554/1.3523

GBP/USD slipped to 1.3609 (-0.04%) as markets awaited U.S. jobless claims amid ongoing trade tensions. Technically, the pair is attempting a breakout above the descending trendline; a retest of 1.3554 support could precede a rally toward 1.3687.

USDJPY

  Resistance: 146.12/146.66

· Support: 144.94/144.40

USD/JPY pulled back to 146.35 (-0.18%) after reaching 147.19, as stalled Japan-U.S. trade talks continue to weigh on the yen. Technically, the price may retrace back to the 146.12–146.40 resistance or the breakout zone and may head lower toward the 144.94 support if the rejection is confirmed.

US Crude Oil Futures (AUG)

· Resistance: 69.00/70.55

· Support: 67.09/65.52

WTI crude held steady at $68.38 (+0.07%) as markets weighed robust U.S. gasoline demand against risks in the Red Sea and concerns over copper tariffs. Technically, the price remains within an ascending channel, but a rejection near $69.00 may trigger a pullback toward the $67.09 support level.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 3344/3353

· Support: 3302/3293

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 36.76/37.00

· Support: 36.24/36.01

Gold edged up to $3,318.85 (+0.3%) on geopolitical and fiscal concerns, though a firm USD capped gains. Technically, XAU/USD is testing the upper boundary of a descending channel near $3,323. A breakout above this level targets $3,344, while a rejection may send it back toward $3,302.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 45215/45921

· Support: 44285/43541

Dow futures rose 0.49% to 44,458.30, led by industrials and a 3.7% surge in Boeing after strong delivery figures. Technically, the index remains above a rising trendline near 44,285, with bulls targeting the next level at 45,215.

NAS100

· Resistance: 23564/24417

· Support: 22223/21381

NAS100 climbed 0.95% to 20,611.34, led by tech gains as Nvidia briefly hit a $4T market cap. Despite tariff risks, investors remained optimistic about Fed rate cuts. Technically, the index holds above trendline support near 22,600 and may aim for 23,564 if momentum continues; alternatively, it may retrace deeper to support near 22,223.

BTC

· Resistance: 111806/112174

· Support: 110078/109703

Bitcoin edged slightly lower to $111,274 (-0.03%) but remains in a strong uptrend, closely tracking equities. It broke above the $110,086 resistance, and it may retest the breakout zone. If support is held, the price may target the $111,806 resistance level. With BTC’s high correlation to indices like DAX and S&P 500, broader risk sentiment will remain a key driver.

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