ATFX Market Outlook 11th July 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 11th July 2025

Dollar Climbs, Stocks Soar: Markets Brush Off Tariff Shock on Strong Jobs Data

Market HighlightU.S. stock indices, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, closed slightly higher on Thursday, both reaching new record closing highs. Optimism was boosted by Delta Air Lines' positive earnings forecast and Nvidia's record-breaking market capitalisation, helping investors remain unfazed by Trump’s latest tariff announcements. The Dow Jones rose by 0.43%, Nasdaq increased by 0.09%, and the S&P 500 climbed by 0.27%, with the latter two hitting intraday all-time highs.

U.S. initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell to a seven-week low, suggesting that despite other signs of a cooling labor market, employers are still trying to retain workers. This gives the Federal Reserve less urgency to resume rate cuts. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields edged higher, and the U.S. dollar strengthened against major currencies like the euro and Swiss franc. The Dollar Index rose 0.27% to 97.638. The EUR/USD fell 0.23% to 1.1692.

Gold prices were little changed on Thursday, as a stronger dollar offset the safe-haven buying triggered by Trump’s new tariff measures. Spot gold rose 0.3% to $3,322.69 per ounce. Oil prices, meanwhile, dropped sharply as investors weighed the potential impact of tariffs on global economic growth. U.S. crude settled at $66.57 per barrel, down 2.65%.

Key Outlook

The U.K. will release its May GDP data. Growth is expected to slow to 0.7% YoY (prior: 0.9%), reflecting tax hikes and tariff effects. A weak point could revive expectations of a Bank of England rate cut and pressure the pound.

Key Data and Events Today: 

14:00 GB GDP MoM MAY *** 

16:00 IEA Monthly Report *** 

20:30 CA Unemployment Rate JUN ** 

Key Data and Events Coming Week

Monday: JP Industrial Production 

Tuesday: US & CA CPI, EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Index & Industrial Production, OPEC Monthly Report

Wednesday: GB CPI, US PPI & Industrial Production 

Thursday: Fed Beige Book, AU Unemployment Rate, GB Employment Change, US Retail Sales & Initial Jobless Claims

Friday: JP CPI, EU GERMANY PPI, US Michigan Consumer Sentiment

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1738/1.1784

· Support: 1.1636/1.1591

EUR/USD dipped 0.23% to 1.1692 as strong U.S. job data and easing tariff concerns supported the dollar. Technically, the pair remains confined within a descending channel, facing persistent resistance near 1.1738. Unless bulls manage a breakout above this level, downside risks remain toward 1.1636. The structure suggests continued bearish pressure in the short term.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3628/1.3690

· Support: 1.3479/1.3430

GBP/USD hovered near 1.3562 as traders awaited the UK May GDP data. Markets are cautious amid expectations that a soft print could put pressure on the Bank of England to consider rate cuts. Technically, the pair remains within a bearish channel, with downside risk toward the 1.3478 demand zone if no bullish catalyst emerges.

USDJPY

  Resistance: 147.23/148.03

· Support: 145.98/145.35

USD/JPY held firm around 146.24 as resilient U.S. Treasury yields continued to support the dollar, even amid elevated geopolitical risks. Technically, the pair remains above an ascending trendline, with potential to test resistance near 147.23 if buyers maintain control.

US Crude Oil Futures (AUG)

· Resistance: 67.74/68.33

· Support: 65.85/65.27

WTI crude dropped more than 2% to $66.57 per barrel as traders reacted to President Trump’s renewed tariff threats and expectations of further OPEC+ output increases, both of which clouded the global demand outlook. Technical suggests further downside toward the $65.85 support zone if bearish momentum continues.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 3344/3353

· Support: 3314/3302

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 37.31/37.55

· Support: 36.53/36.24

Gold steadied near $3,324 per ounce, up 0.1%, as a stronger U.S. dollar offset safe-haven flows driven by geopolitical uncertainty and Trump’s new tariff threats. Price remains supported above the broken trendline, with bulls eyeing the $3,344 resistance.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 45215/45921

· Support: 44285/43541

The Dow Futures climbed 0.43% to 44,650.64, lifted by Delta Air Lines' upbeat outlook and strength in transport stocks, signaling improved investor confidence in economic momentum. If buyers defend the uptrend line, a break above 44,700 could open the path toward the 45,215 resistance level. The structure favors dip-buying unless we see a clear break below 44,285.

.NAS100

· Resistance: 23564/24417

· Support: 22223/21381

The NAS100 edged up 0.09% to a new all-time high, buoyed by Nvidia reaching a $4 trillion market capitalisation. However, the index is testing an upward trendline near 22,700–22,800. A rebound would confirm a bullish continuation towards 23,564, but a break lower might trigger a correction to 22,223.

BTC

· Resistance: 118131/119719

· Support: 114355/113131

Bitcoin remains in a strong uptrend after surpassing $111,000. The price is consolidating above the mid-Bollinger Band at $114,355, indicating potential bullish continuation. As long as it maintains this support, upside targets are at $118,131 and $119,719.

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