ATFX Market Outlook 16th July 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 16th July 2025

Sticky Inflation Reinforces Fed Pause as Nasdaq Hits Record High Amid Market Split

Market HighlightU.S. consumer prices rose in June at the fastest pace in five months, though broadly in line with expectations. The data suggests tariffs are beginning to impact inflation and could prompt the Federal Reserve to remain on hold at least until September. U.S. equities ended mixed on Tuesday — the Nasdaq closed at a record high, driven by gains in mega-cap Nvidia, while the Dow and S&P 500 retreated. The Dow Jones fell 0.98%, the S&P 500 lost 0.4%, and the Nasdaq edged up 0.18%.

U.S. Treasury yields climbed as the inflation report tempered expectations for multiple Fed rate cuts this year. The U.S. dollar strengthened against the yen, with USD/JPY rising 0.77% to 148.84 — the highest since April 3. EUR/USD dropped 0.51% to 1.1603, the lowest since June 25, while GBP/USD slipped 0.28% to 1.3389, its weakest since June 23.

Gold prices declined as traders awaited further tariff-related developments, with inflation data broadly meeting forecasts. Spot gold settled 0.64% lower at $3,322.18 per ounce. Crude oil extended losses after President Trump gave Russia 50 days to end the war in Ukraine to avoid sanctions, easing immediate supply concerns.

Key Outlook

The U.K. is set to release June CPI data. For the past two months, annual inflation has remained above 3%, though the prior reading showed a slight moderation. The upcoming data is expected to remain elevated around 3.4%, which may give the Bank of England more justification to stay on hold after pausing its rate-cut cycle.

Key Data and Events Today: 

14:00 GB CPI JUN MoM JUN *** 

20:30 US PPI YoY JUN ** 

21:15 US Industrial Production MoM JUN ** 

22:30 EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change ** 

Tomorrow

02:00 Fed Beige Book *** 

09:30 AU Unemployment Rate JUN ** 

14:00 GB Unemployment Rate MAY ** 

17:00 EU CPI Final JUN ** 

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims *** 

20:30 US Retail Sales MoM JUN *** 

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1682/1.1738

· Support: 1.1545/1.1501

EUR/USD slipped 0.51% to 1.1603, it's the lowest since June 25, as stronger U.S. CPI data bolstered the dollar. The pair remains capped by a descending trendline and may face renewed selling pressure near the 1.1682 resistance. If rejection occurs, a slide toward 1.1545 remains in play.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3479/1.3529

· Support: 1.3321/1.3270

GBP/USD continued its bearish trajectory, sliding to 1.3389 as stronger U.S. inflation data reinforced expectations for the Fed to hold rates steady. Technically, the pair remains in a clear downtrend, with price capped below 1.3480 resistance and likely to extend losses toward the next support at 1.3321 if sellers maintain pressure.

USDJPY

  Resistance: 150.09/150.70

· Support: 148.03/147.23

USD/JPY rose 0.77% to 148.84, hitting its highest level since April 3, as the largest monthly U.S. CPI increase in five months dampened expectations for multiple Fed rate cuts. Technically, the pair is in a strong uptrend, supported by an ascending trendline. If it holds above 148.03, bulls may aim for the next target at 150.09.

US Crude Oil Futures (AUG)

· Resistance: 68.25/68.92

· Support: 65.47/64.80

WTI crude dipped 0.7% to $66.52 per barrel as President Trump’s 50-day deadline to Russia eased fears of imminent supply shocks. Technically, price may retrace back to the resistance near $68.25 and may remain under bearish pressure below that zone. A rejection could open downside toward $65.47.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 3344/3360

· Support: 3311/3296

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 38.10/38.33

· Support: 37.31/37.01

Gold dropped 0.64% to $3,322.18/oz as U.S. CPI came in line with expectations, limiting upside for safe-haven assets. Technically, price is supported by the $3,311–3,312 zone and an ascending trendline. A rebound from this level could lead to a retest of $3,344.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 44497/44909

· Support: 43551/43132

The Dow Futures fell 0.98% to 44,023.29 amid earnings jitters and inflation concerns, while price remains within a descending channel. A break below the lower boundary could trigger downside toward 43,551 support.

NAS100

· Resistance: 23484/24039

· Support: 22607/22165

The Nasdaq 100 climbed 0.18% to a record 20,677.80, led by Nvidia’s 4% jump on renewed China chip sales. Price remains within an ascending channel; as long as it holds above 22,607 support level, the bullish trend is intact.

BTC

· Resistance: 121049/123138

· Support: 114134/112009

BTC/USD is hovering near 117,488 after breakout of the 121,049 support level. The pair remains in an overall uptrend but may retest the rising trendline near 114,134 before bulls return.

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