ATFX Market Outlook 16th June 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 16th June 2025

Market Turmoil Sparks Caution Amid Middle East Tensions, Central Bank Super Week Market HighlightU.S. consumer confidence improved for the first time in six months in June amid easing trade tensions. However, U.S. stocks closed lower on Friday as tensions escalated following Iran's missile response to Israel's attacks aimed at its nuclear capabilities. The S&P fell by 0.4%, the Nasdaq by 0.6%, and the Dow by 1.3%. 

U.S. Treasury yields rose, ending a four-day decline, and the dollar strengthened against major currencies. This situation has led investors to seek safe-haven assets, with the dollar index up by 0.5% to 98.2, despite falling for the second consecutive week. 

Gold prices surged by 1.42% on Friday, closing at $3,432.19 an ounce, reflecting investor concerns about regional conflicts. Oil prices also rose sharply as the conflict between Israel and Iran intensified, with U.S. crude closing at $72.98 a barrel, up by 7.26%.

Key Outlook

Today, markets are focusing on Middle East tensions, with the risk of further caution if the escalation continues. The U.S. releases June's New York Fed Manufacturing Index, while OPEC's monthly report will gauge potential demand adjustments amid economic and tariff concerns. Oil and Gold remain affected by tensions between Israel and Iran. This week's major central bank meetings, including those of the Fed, BoJ, China, Switzerland, and the UK, will focus on interest rate decisions and signals.

Key Data and Events Today:

19:00 OPEC Monthly Report ***

Tomorrow

11:00 BoJ Interest Rate Decision ***

14:30 BoJ Press Conference *** 

16:00 IEA Oil Market Report *** 

17:00 EU ZEW Economic Sentiment JUN ** 

20:30 US Retail Sales MAY *** 

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1570/1.1602

· Support: 1.1470/1.1439

Although the latest inflation data in the eurozone is stable, geopolitical tensions have strengthened the US dollar, causing the EUR/USD to fall from its November 2021 high of over 1.1600 during trading last Friday. This decline has ended its four-day winning streak and has continued to open lower this morning. If it breaks below the 1.1500 mark, it may threaten the key support of the 10-day moving average near 1.1460. We will continue to monitor the situation in the Middle East throughout the day.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3593/1.3613

· Support: 1.3503/1.3481

Due to weak data from the UK this week and geopolitical tensions that triggered capital inflows to safe-haven assets, US dollar assets, GBP/USD slightly refreshed a three-year high last Friday before pulling back. It briefly tested above the 10-day moving average before recovering but continued to test the support level this morning. Consequently, whether the exchange rate falls below this level during the day will determine whether it faces pressure to retreat from its official high.

USDJPY

· Resistance: 144.74/145.11

· Support: 143.55/143.19

Last week, led by safe-haven demand, the yen rose amid Middle East tensions but was overtaken by the dollar’s rebound. The BoJ is expected to maintain its current rate stance and slow its bond purchases. Market watchers will monitor if USD/JPY can break above 145 as tensions and trade developments unfold.

US Crude Oil Futures (JULY)

· Resistance: 76.25/78.81

· Support: 72.22/ 69.69

Concerns over the tense Israel-Iran situation have led to a surge in international oil prices, which increased by over 13% last Friday, marking the largest intraday spike since 2022 and closing above $72. If tensions do not escalate, prices may stabilise in a wait-and-see approach, with bulls needing to maintain the $70 mark. However, should the situation worsen, resistance could emerge above $76.

Spot Gold

· Resistance: 3458/3471

· Support: 3416/3403

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 36.51/36.67

· Support: 35.79/35.61

Gold near $3,445 rose to over a one-month high amid Middle East tensions and bets of a Fed rate cut. Despite strong US consumer sentiment data, geopolitical concerns and expectations of a rate cut by September support haven-demand buying.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 42440/42695

· Support: 41820/41617

The conflict in the Middle East has intensified, causing U.S. stocks to close lower last Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped over 700 points to its lowest level since early June, breaking below key moving averages. The 20-day moving average now acts as resistance above 42,400, so monitor whether the Dow remains below 42,000.

NAS100

· Resistance: 21897/22044

· Support: 21409/21260

Geopolitical risks have caused market funds to retreat from risky assets, exerting pressure on large tech stocks. The Nasdaq opened lower and tried to rebound, ultimately closing below the 10-day moving average for the first time in three weeks. Attention should focus on the key support at the 20-day moving average around 21,500, along with the emotional ramifications of the situation in the Middle East.

 BTC

· Resistance: 108207/109426

· Support: 103129/101951

Bitcoin dropped below $104K to $103,162 amid escalating Middle East tensions after Israel struck Iranian nuclear sites last Friday. The market also saw sharp declines in Ethereum, Solana, and XRP. Despite a slight recovery, crypto remains volatile as geopolitical fears intensify. If BTC fails to reclaim $106,724, it may extend its losses towards key supports at $103,129 and $101,951. 

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