ATFX Market Outlook 17th June 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 17th June 2025

Iran Seeks Ceasefire as Gold and Oil Prices DipMarket HighlightU.S. three major indices rose on Monday, with the Dow up 0.77%, the S&P 500 up 0.9%, and the Nasdaq up 1.5%, as oil prices eased and concerns over inflation diminished. The dollar strengthened against the yen and Swiss franc but weakened against other currencies. Gold dropped over 1% after hitting an eight-week high, and oil fell $1 amid hopes of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. Investors await the release of US retail sales data tonight, as well as this week’s Fed meeting and updates on regional conflicts.

Key Outlook

Markets remain cautious amid Israel-Iran tensions, with key central banks—including the Fed, BOJ, and others—focused on interest rate decisions. The Bank of Japan is expected to hold rates steady but may hint at future increases amid ongoing risks and inflation. US retail sales data due later could show a rebound after stagnation.

Key Data and Events Today:

11:00 BoJ Interest Rate Decision *** 

14:30 BoJ Press Conference *** 

16:00 IEA Oil Market Report *** 

17:00 EU ZEW Economic Sentiment JUN** 

20:30 US Core Retail Sales MAY *** 

21:15 US Industrial Production MAY ** 

Tomorrow

04:30 US API Weekly Crude Oil Stock *** 

14:00 GB CPI MAY *** 

17:00 EU CPI Final MAY *** 

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims *** 

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1601/1.1632

· Support: 1.1501/1.1470

The euro slightly strengthened against the dollar but struggled to break above 1.1600, facing resistance near 1.1610. It remains in a consolidation range, waiting for geopolitical developments or the Fed's decision to break out. Key levels are 1.1632 resistance and 1.1480 support.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3612/1.3633

· Support: 1.3500/1.3480

GBP/USD rose slightly and remains in a high range, with potential to test February 2022 highs. Bulls should hold support near 1.3550, awaiting the Bank of England's decision on Thursday and developments in the Middle East.

USDJPY

· Resistance: 145.46/145.77

· Support: 144.44/144.12

The yen continued to weaken as market risk appetite improved, despite the Bank of Japan's expected steady rates. The focus remains on potential changes in bond purchase policies. The dollar faces resistance at 145.46 against the yen, last week's high. If it fails to break the resistance, USDJPY would pull back to the 144 level. 

US Crude Oil Futures (JULY)

· Resistance: 74.20/76.25

· Support: 67.70/65.68

Oil surged by more than 2% on Tuesday amid rising tensions between Iran and Israel and concerns about supply. Prices remain supported by regional instability and potential disruptions, despite hopes for de-escalation. Besides the tension, traders await US retail data for further direction. Suppose upbeat retail data would be expected to lead to an increase in oil demand.

Spot Gold

· Resistance: 3429/3445

· Support: 3361/3348

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 36.67/36.88

· Support: 36.00/35.78

Gold fell by more than 1% after reaching an eight-week high, as traders took profits and Iran hinted at a potential end to hostilities. Despite some recovery, geopolitical tensions continue to support safe-haven bids, with key support around $3,360. Bulls should maintain support near $3,360, awaiting US retail data tonight and developments in the Middle East.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 42906/43109

· Support: 42233/42027

Iran’s hints at restarting talks have eased early U.S. market tensions, with the Dow recovering some losses. The index faces resistance at 42,600, breaking above this level could target last week’s high of 42,900, amid ongoing concerns in the Middle East and anticipation of the Fed's decision.

NAS100

· Resistance: 22042/22094

· Support: 21816/21763

U.S. tech stocks rebounded, with the Nasdaq reaching last week’s high and approaching the 22,000-resistance level. However, caution ahead of the Fed may limit further gains.

 BTC

· Resistance: 109421/110599

· Support: 104326/103128

Crypto markets rebounded on Monday despite geopolitical tensions, with Bitcoin up 1.1% at $106,690 and Ethereum rising 2.7%. Broader assets, such as XRP, also gained, while traders remain cautious ahead of the Fed. Overall market cap hit $3.34 trillion, showing signs of resilience amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran. Bitcoin holds above support levels at $104,326 and $103,128, with resistance at $110,000.

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