ATFX Market Outlook 19th June 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 19th June 2025

Tariff Risks Loom: Fed Holds Rates, Signals Slower Cuts Ahead

Market HighlightThe Federal Reserve held interest rates steady and maintained its projection of two rate cuts for 2025. Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that inflation in goods prices is expected to rise this summer as Trump’s tariffs filter through to consumers. Meanwhile, U.S. weekly jobless claims and housing data pointed to a slowdown in economic activity. U.S. equities ended Wednesday little changed after paring earlier gains — the Dow fell 0.1%, the S&P 500 slipped 0.03%, while the Nasdaq rose 0.13%.

Following the Fed’s decision and Powell’s comments suggesting elevated inflation and a slower path of easing, U.S. Treasury yields trimmed losses. The dollar strengthened against most major peers except the yen, with the DXY briefly breaking above the 99 level.

Gold prices declined as the Fed’s stance reduced near-term rate cut hopes. Spot gold fell 0.6% to $3,368.74 per ounce. Crude oil ended higher amid choppy trade, as markets weighed the risk of supply disruptions from the ongoing Israel–Iran conflict and potential U.S. involvement.

Key Outlook

The Bank of England rate decision will be in focus tonight. Markets expect the Bank of England (BoE) to hold rates at 4.25%. After narrowly cutting rates last month, policymakers are expected to pause amid easing tariff pressures and uncertainty over wage growth. However, widening divisions among BoE members during the May meeting have dampened expectations for an accelerated easing cycle.

Key Data and Events Today:

US Holiday

15:30 SNB Interest Rate Decision *** 

16:00 SNB Press Conference *** 

19:00 BoE Interest Rate Decision *** 

19:00 BoE Minutes *** 

Tomorrow

New Zealand Holiday

07:30 JP CPI YoY MAY *** 

07:50 BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes ** 

09:15 PoBC Loan Prime Rate ** 

14:00 EU Germany PPI MAY ** 

14:00 GB Retail Sales MAY ***

20:30 CA Retail Sales APR *** 

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1532 / 1.1570

· Support: 1.1439 / 1.1409

The EUR/USD dropped to 1.1460 as the US Dollar strengthened after the Fed held rates, and Powell warned of persistent inflation. Rising geopolitical tensions and tariff risks fueled risk aversion. Despite a recent rate cut, the ECB’s hawkish tone capped gains in the euro. Key support lies at 1.1439, while resistance is at 1.1532.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3453 / 1.3480

· Support: 1.3384 / 1.3363

UK CPI rose 3.4% YoY in May, matching expectations but staying well above the BoE’s 2% target. GBP/USD briefly bounced but failed to break above the prior support-turned-resistance at 1.3453. The price has since drifted back to 1.3410. A dovish Bank of England (BoE) stance amid easing inflation could send the pair lower toward the 1.3384 support zone.

USDJPY

  Resistance: 145.46 / 145.77

· Support: 144.44/144.13

Following the Fed’s decision to keep rates unchanged, USD/JPY edged lower. It is consolidating within a symmetrical triangle near 145.10. The rising trendline continues to offer support, while 145.46 caps the upside. A break above could lead to 145.77, while a drop below 144.44 may retest the trendline. The bias remains neutral with a slight bullish tilt, unless key support levels are broken.

US Crude Oil Futures (AUG)

· Resistance: 76.12/ 77.56

· Support: 71.53/ 70.10

WTI crude closed at $73.42, holding above trendline support near $71.53. A sharp 11.5M barrel inventory draw and reports that Trump approved an Iran strike plan lifted the prices of WTI. The broader trend depends on the Fed's policy signals and developments in the Middle East.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 3403/3416

· Support: 3361/3349

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 37.05/37.23

· Support: 36.33/36.16

Gold fell to around $3,369/oz after the Fed held rates and Powell warned of “elevated inflation,” dampening hopes for aggressive cuts. Prices now face resistance at nearly $3,385 and remain vulnerable below $3,403.86. Safe-haven flows persist amid ongoing Middle East tensions, as Trump declared the US aims for “total victory” over Iran, which helps limit the downside.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 42696/42906

· Support: 41820/41617

The Dow Futures fell 0.10% to 42,171.66 after Powell warned tariffs may raise inflation. Tech outperformed, energy lagged. Price is testing support at 42,042—holding may lead to a rebound toward 42,698, but a break below could trigger a drop to 41,823.

NAS100

· Resistance: 21824/21907

· Support: 21623/21557

The NAS100 is held near 21,613, consolidating within a symmetrical triangle pattern. A breakout above 21,907 could pave the way to 22,100+, while maintaining position above the rising trendline keeps the bullish structure intact. Powell’s remarks on tariffs and inflation tempered broader sentiment, but tech remains resilient.

BTC

· Resistance: 106639/107543

· Support: 103731/102816

Bitcoin holds above $ 104,000 despite macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty. The price remains supported at $103,731, while the upside is capped near $106,639. On-chain data shows realized profits are still muted, signaling firm holder conviction. A drop below $103K may open the door to $100K, while a rebound could retest resistance.

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