ATFX Market Outlook 19th November 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 19th November 2025

U.S. Stocks Extend Losing Streak as Markets Eye Fed Minutes and Nvidia Earnings

Market Highlight

U.S. government data showed that continuing jobless claims rose sharply by nearly 40,000 from mid-September to mid-October. Wall Street closed lower on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 falling for the fourth consecutive session — the longest losing streak in three months. Valuation concerns continued to pressure major tech stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.07%, the S&P 500 slipped 0.82%, and the Nasdaq fell 1.2%. Weak U.S. labor data initially dragged the dollar index lower, but the currency later steadied and ended the day  0.072% higher as tech-sector selling intensified. EUR/USD edged down 0.07% to 1.1584.

Gold recovered from a one-week low as softer U.S. employment data revived expectations of a possible December Fed rate cut. Spot gold rose 0.6% to $4,067.6 after briefly touching its lowest level since November 10. Oil prices also edged higher, with traders weighing the impact of Western sanctions on Russian crude exports.

Key Outlook

The U.K. will release October CPI data, with markets watching whether inflation holds near the 3.8% level. The Bank of England has suggested that September’s 3.8% reading may mark the peak as disinflation gradually takes shape. In the U.S., all eyes are on Nvidia’s earnings after the close — the final major report of this season and a key driver for tech sentiment. Later, Thursday (Asia time), the Federal Reserve will issue its meeting minutes. Although the Fed cut rates, officials avoided a dovish signal, and investors will look for further clues on the policy outlook.

Key Data and Events Today

15:00 GB CPI YoY OCT ** 

18:00 EU CPI YoY Final OCT **  

23:30 US Building Permits SEP ** 

23:30 EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change **

Tomorrow: 

03:00 FOMC Minutes ***

09:15 CN Loan Prime Rate 1Y **

15:00 EU GERMANY PPI YoY OCT ** 

21:30 US Non-Farm Payrolls SEP *** 

21:30 US Unemployment Rate SEP *** 

23:00 EU Consumer Confidence Flash NOV ** 

23:00 US Existing Home Sales OCT **

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1612/1.1635

· Support: 1.1539/1.1517

EUR/USD edged down to around 1.1580 as the dollar stayed firm ahead of key U.S. data, even though softer jobless claims nudged December Fed cut odds back toward 50%. Technically, the pair is capped below 1.1612 resistance on the 4H chart, with sellers eyeing a drift toward the 1.1539–1.1517 support zone if this ceiling holds.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3194/1.3219

· Support: 1.3089/1.3064

GBP/USD edged lower toward 1.3150 as the dollar stayed firm and markets remained cautious ahead of the UK budget. Technically, the pair continues to cap below the descending trendline near 1.3194, with sellers likely to pressure prices toward 1.3089 if 1.3140 fails to hold.

USDJPY

· Resistance: 155.76/155.93

· Support: 155.04/154.83

USD/JPY extended gains toward 155.60, marking a fresh nine-month high as policy divergence continued to weigh on the yen. Technically, the pair is holding above the 155.04 support and respecting its ascending trendline, suggesting the bias stays upward. A rebound from this zone could pave the way for another test of 155.76, while intervention risks remain on traders’ radar ahead of key U.S. labor data.

US Crude Oil Futures (DEC)

· Resistance: 61.82/62.59

· Support: 59.27/58.49

WTI hovered near $60.70, supported by tightening supply expectations as U.S. sanctions increasingly pressure Russian oil majors. From the chart, price fluctuates between $59.27 support and $61.50 resistance, with a potential breakout in either direction. Upside momentum may build toward $61.82 if price holds above $60, while a drop below $59.27 risks a deeper pullback.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 4109/4161

· Support: 4024/3981

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 51.87/52.47

-Support: 49.34/48.76

Spot gold rebounded toward $4,070 after touching a one-week low, lifted by softer U.S. labor data that pushed December rate-cut odds back near 50%.Technically, price is holding below the $4,109 resistance, with the chart suggesting either a corrective bounce or a drop toward $4,024 if momentum weakens. Traders now await the Fed minutes and delayed NFP to determine whether the recovery can continue.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 46593/46946

· Support: 45452/45106

The Dow futures slipped to around 46,092, marking its fourth consecutive decline after Home Depot’s weak outlook and persistent tech-sector fatigue dragged sentiment lower. The index has now fallen below its 50-day moving average, signalling weakening momentum, and price action suggests a potential retest of 45,452 support if bounces remain shallow.

NAS100

· Resistance: 24961/25194

· Support: 23978/23741

The NAS100 slid 1.21% as AI-linked megacaps extended their pullback, with Nvidia dropping another 2.8% ahead of earnings. The index breaks below the 50-day moving average, signalling weakening momentum. Technically, price faces resistance near 24,961 while support sits around 23,978, with Thursday’s NFP and Nvidia’s results likely to dictate the next directional breakout.

BTC        

· Resistance: 94595/95576

· Support: 90277/89293

Bitcoin hovered near $92,500, pressured by fading expectations of a December Fed cut and continued risk-off sentiment. Weak ETF inflows and recent liquidation waves weighed further on confidence. Technically, the pair faces resistance near $94,595, with a downside risk toward $90,277 if the rebound fails.

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