ATFX ​Market Outlook 22nd August 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 22nd August 2025

Powell’s Speech: Clear Rate-Cut Signal or Market Reversal Tonight?

Market HighlightAhead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech tonight, three Fed officials poured cold water on expectations of a September rate cut. U.S. PMI data showed stronger business activity in August, but weekly jobless claims posted the most significant increase in nearly three months, highlighting continued labor market weakness. U.S. equities closed lower on Thursday, as investors feared Powell could strike a hawkish tone, adding volatility, while Walmart’s earnings also weighed on sentiment. The Dow fell 0.34%, the S&P 500 lost 0.40%, and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.34%.

The U.S. dollar strengthened as investors awaited Powell’s highly anticipated Friday speech for new clues on a potential September rate cut. At the New York close, the dollar index rose 0.38% to 98.60, while EUR/USD fell 0.34% to 1.1611. USD/JPY dropped 0.65% to 148.29, and GBP/USD slid 0.34% to 1.3411.

Gold prices edged lower as the stronger dollar curbs demand, with investors awaiting Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks for policy guidance. Spot gold slipped 0.2% to $3,338.46 per ounce. Oil rose nearly $1, supported by signs of strong U.S. demand and renewed tensions as Russia and Ukraine accused each other of stalling peace talks.

Key Outlook

All eyes are on Powell’s remarks tonight, which will serve as the week’s key market driver. With investors betting on a September rate cut, markets hope Powell will deliver a confirming signal. However, institutions remain skeptical about a clear dovish shift, leaving his comments to determine the next direction of global financial markets directly.

Key Data and Events Today:

14:00 GB Retail Sales JULY **

14:00 EU GERMANY GDP Final Q2 ***

20:30 CA Retail Sales JUN **

Key Data and Events Coming Week

Monday: UK Holiday, EU GERMANY Ifo Business Climate, US New Home Sales, US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index 

Tuesday: RBA Meeting Minutes, US Durable Goods Orders, US CB Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

Wednesday: API Crude Oil Stock Change, EU GERMANY GfK Consumer Confidence, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change

Thursday: US GDP, US Initial Jobless Claims, US Pending Home Sales, ECB Meeting Minutes

Friday: JP Unemployment Rate, EU GERMANY CPI & Unemployment Rate, US Core PCE Price Index, CA GDP, US Michigan Consumer Sentiment

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1683/1.1730

· Support: 1.1542/1.1484

EUR/USD fell 0.40% to 1.1607 after strong U.S. PMI data lifted the dollar and trimmed Fed rate-cut bets. Hawkish Fed comments kept pressure on the pair, while the ECB is expected to hold rates. Key support lies at 1.1542, resistance at 1.1683.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3485/1.3540

· Support: 1.3365/1.3312

GBP/USD hovers near 1.3410, weighed by a firm dollar ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. Rate-cut odds for September have eased, keeping the dollar index at 98.61. Key resistance is at 1.3485, with a downside risk toward 1.3365.

USDJPY

  Resistance: 149.12/149.68

· Support: 148.01/147.33

The dollar strengthened 0.65% to 148.29 against the yen, supported by higher U.S. yields and safe-haven outflows from the yen ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. Technically, USD/JPY broke above 148.01 resistance and is holding gains. If sustained, the pair may test 149.12; failure to hold above 148.01 risks a pullback toward 147.33.

US Crude Oil Futures (OCT)

· Resistance: 64.70/65.56

· Support: 62.46/61.80

WTI crude rose 1.3% to $63.52, and Brent gained 1.2% to $67.67, supported by strong U.S. demand while Russia-Ukraine peace talks stalled. Technically, WTI holds above $62.46 support, with resistance at $64.70. A breakout may open the way toward $65.56, while failure to sustain momentum risks a pullback.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 3355/3376

· Support: 3322/3305

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 38.43/38.73

· Support: 37.49/37.17

Spot gold eased 0.3% to $3,337.95 as a firmer dollar capped demand, with traders awaiting Powell’s Jackson Hole speech for clarity on rate cuts. Technically, support lies at $3,322, while resistance is at $3,355. A break above could target $3,376, while a failure risk renewed downside pressure.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 45064/45248

· Support: 44481/44297

The Dow Futures slipped 0.34% to 44,785.50, pressured by weak retail earnings and cautious sentiment ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. Technically, the index consolidates between support at 44,481 and resistance at 45,064. Holding above 44,481 could support a rebound toward 45,060, while a breakdown risks deeper losses.

NAS100

· Resistance: 23223/23476

· Support: 22867/22675

NAS100 slipped 0.34%, pressured by extended declines in tech stocks as valuation concerns resurfaced and traders turned cautious ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. Technically, NAS100 remains capped by the descending trendline, with resistance at 23,223 and support at 22,867. A break lower could accelerate downside momentum, while reclaiming above 23,223 is needed to shift sentiment.

BTC

· Resistance: 115247/116733

· Support: 110462/ 108951

BTC slipped to $112,700, near a two-week low, as traders turned cautious ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. Markets now see an 83% chance of a September 25 bps cut, down from 94% last week.  BTC has broken below its ascending trendline, with resistance at $115,247 and key support at $110,462. A hawkish Powell could pressure BTC toward $110k, while a dovish stance may trigger a rebound back toward $116k.

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