ATFX Market Outlook 23rd June 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 23rd June 2025

From Diplomacy to Detonation: Gold, Oil Leap as U.S. Pounds Iran

Market HighlightOn Friday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed lower as investors grew anxious over escalating Iran–Israel tensions ahead of the weekend. For the week, the Dow was flat, the S&P 500 fell 0.2%, while the Nasdaq rose 0.2%. The uncertainty in the Middle East and its potential impact on the global economy pushed the U.S. Dollar Index to its largest weekly gain in over a month. The Federal Reserve noted that trade policies are still evolving, making it premature to assess the economic impact of tariffs.

Gold prices were steady on Friday but posted a weekly loss after Trump delayed his decision on U.S. involvement in the conflict. Spot gold was little changed at $3,367.98/oz, down 1.8% for the week. However, it opened sharply higher on Monday, following renewed geopolitical tensions. Oil prices failed to hold gains on Friday as new U.S. sanctions on Iran were seen as a diplomatic gesture offering hope for talks. But over the weekend, U.S. airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities reignited fears of a major escalation, prompting Oil futures surge.

Key Outlook

Markets will closely watch reactions to the U.S. airstrikes on three major Iranian nuclear sites. Gold and oil have already surged in early trading, and equity sentiment may turn risk-off as a result. On the data front, focus will be on the June flash PMIs for manufacturing and services from key economies including the Eurozone, UK, and later the U.S. Particular attention will be on whether U.S. data continues to surprise to the upside, potentially reflecting growing business confidence amid easing tariff concerns. Also in focus is ECB President Lagarde’s introductory statement at the European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee hearing—markets will look for any hints of further rate cuts.

Key Data and Events Today: 

15:30 EU GERMANY Manufacturing & Services PMI PREL JUN ** 

16:00 EU Manufacturing & Services PMI PREL JUN ** 

16:30 GB Manufacturing & Services PMI PREL JUN ** 

21:45 US Manufacturing & Services PMI PREL JUN *** 

Tomorrow 

16:00 EU GERMANY Ifo Business Climate JUN ** 

20:30 CA CPI YoY MAY *** 

22:00 US CB Consumer Confidence JUN ** 

22:00 Fed's Testimony ***

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1532 / 1.1570

· Support: 1.1409 / 1.1370

EUR/USD climbed to 1.1534 on Friday as the dollar weakened, but geopolitical tensions capped gains. The pair remains above trendline support, with key level of support at 1.1370 and resistance level at 1.1570. A rebound may open the path to 1.1650. Markets now await PMI data from the Eurozone, and US, as well as ECB President Lagarde’s remarks for rate outlook clues.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3454 / 1.3480

· Support: 1.3343 / 1.3321

GBP/USD holds under pressure near 1.3450 as weak UK retail sales offset broader risk appetite. The pair remains capped by the descending trendline, with key support seen at 1.3343–1.3321. Markets now await PMI data from the UK.

USDJPY

  Resistance: 147.12 / 147.44

· Support: 145.77/145.46

Despite rising geopolitical risks, safe-haven demand for JPY remains muted. USD/JPY trades firm near 145.88, holding above the 145.46–145.77 support zone, with potential to retest 147.12 and 147.44 if risk sentiment stabilizes. Traders await Iran’s next move after the U.S. airstrikes, which could trigger renewed demand for safe havens. Meanwhile, U.S. yields remain a key driver.

US Crude Oil Futures (AUG)

· Resistance: 78.70/ 79.88

· Support: 73.83/ 72.67

WTI crude gapped higher on Monday after the U.S. airstrikes on Iran's nuclear sites sparked fears of a possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Prices surged over 2% to $78.40 after breaking out of consolidation. If the uptrend holds above the $73.83 support zone, bulls could push toward the $78.70–$79.88 resistance range.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 3396/3410

· Support: 3340/3327

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 36.38/36.60

· Support: 35.72/35.44

Gold gapped higher toward $3,400 as U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites spurred safe-haven demand. Yet price remains below the $3,396–$3,410 resistance. Unless broken, downside risk to $3,340/$3,327 persists. Focus turns to geopolitical escalation and key PMI data from the eurozone, UK, and U.S.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 42440/42696

· Support: 41820/41617

The Dow Futures rose 0.08% last Friday but was capped by descending channel resistance. Investor sentiment remained cautious ahead of weekend risks and the quarterly “triple witching” expiry. A break below $42,000 could open the path toward $41,820 or even $41,617.

NAS100

· Resistance: 21757/21825

· Support: 21473/21407

The NAS100 declined 0.51% on Friday as rising geopolitical tensions, particularly the U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, led investors to rotate out of tech stocks. The index tested support near 21,473, and near-term direction hinges on market risk sentiment and today's PMI releases from the U.S. If risk appetite stays low, a retest of 21,407 or lower is possible.

BTC

· Resistance: 103093/104300

· Support: 99208/97981

Bitcoin fell below $100K after U.S. strikes on Iran, triggering over $1B in long liquidations. Technically, BTC faces resistance near 104,300 and risks sliding toward 99,208–97,981 support. Altcoins and AI tokens dropped over 15% weekly.

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