ATFX Market Outlook 28th April 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 28th April 2025

Markets Pause Amid Trade Thaw, Eyes Set on Heavy U.S. Data Week

Market HighlightA new survey from the Federal Reserve indicates that rising global trade risks, overall policy uncertainty, and concerns about U.S. debt sustainability rank among the top potential threats to the U.S. financial system. U.S. consumer confidence declined for the fourth consecutive month in April, as worries grew over the economic impact of tariffs. Wall Street stocks closed higher on Friday, posting weekly gains as investors analyzed corporate earnings reports and looked for signs of easing tensions in the U.S.-China trade dispute. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.05%, the S&P 500 climbed 0.74%, and the Nasdaq advanced 1.26%.

Last Friday, the U.S. dollar index strengthened amid renewed hopes for easing global trade tensions. The dollar recorded its first weekly gain since mid-March after China granted tariff exemptions on some U.S. imports, raising expectations that the trade war between the world’s two largest economies may be closer to resolution. The dollar index rose approximately 0.07% on Friday, marking a modest weekly gain.

Gold prices fell and registered a weekly decline, pressured by a stronger dollar and reports that Beijing had granted some tariff relief on U.S. goods, suggesting easing trade tensions. Spot gold dropped 0.9% to $3,318.2 per ounce after falling as much as 2% intraday. Oil prices edged higher but ended the week lower, weighed down by expectations of oversupply and uncertainty surrounding U.S.-China trade negotiations.

Key Outlook

Monday's economic calendar is relatively light, focusing on the release of the U.S. April Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index. The index is expected to remain in negative territory for a third consecutive month, reflecting the latest impacts of the ongoing tariff conflict. Meanwhile, markets are preparing for a busy week ahead with several key U.S. economic data releases.

Key Data and Events Today:

21:00 ECB Member Guindos Speech ** 

22:30 US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index APR ** 

Tomorrow

Japan Holiday

14:00 EU GERMANY Gfk Consumer Confidence MAY ** 

17:00 EU Consumer Confidence & Economic Sentiment APR ** 

22:00 US JOLTs Job Openings ** 

22:00 US CB Consumer Confidence APR ** 

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1418 / 1.1455

· Support: 1.1309 / 1.1263

EUR/USD eased to 1.1360 as a stronger USD and dovish ECB expectations weighed on the euro, although the broader bullish trend remains intact. Key supports are around 1.1309 with resistance at 1.1418; stronger momentum is needed for a breakout. Focusing on the April Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index, which is lower than expected, may signal weakening industrial activity, potentially further capping USD strength.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3340 / 1.3372

· Support: 1.3261 / 1.3235

Despite stronger-than-expected UK retail sales (+0.4%), GBP/USD slipped 0.2% to 1.3311 amid broad USD strength. US consumer sentiment dropped to 52.2, while inflation expectations surged, supporting the dollar. Trade tensions linger despite reports of possible Chinese tariff exemptions. A break below 1.3300 could expose support at 1.3261 and 1.3235, while a push above 1.3350 may retest resistance at 1.3400.

USDJPY

· Resistance: 144.19 / 144.68

· Support: 143.05/ 142.55

USD/JPY followed the broader USD rebound last Friday, reaching its highest level since April 11, and now hovers near the 144.00 mark. Markets focus on Thursday’s Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy decision and upcoming US economic data. If the pair rises, the 20-day moving average near 144.50 will be the next upside target. At the same time, support remains at the 10-day moving average around 142.50, suggesting a range-bound movement between key moving averages.

US Crude Oil Futures (JUNE)

· Resistance: 63.88/64.90

· Support: 61.57/60.54

Oil ended the week lower due to supply and tariff concerns, while the US rig count rose slightly. WTI remains range-bound within the channel, facing resistance at $64.11 and support at $62.00 and $60.55. A breakout may target $66–67. 

Spot Gold

· Resistance: 3384/3428

· Support: 3276/3240

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 34.13/34.83

· Support: 32.61/31.92

Gold slid below $3,300 as the USD remained firm amid US-China tensions. The trend stays bullish; support levels are at $3,276 and $3,240, with resistance at $3,384. Watch for upcoming JOLTs and Consumer Confidence data—weak results may weigh on the USD and lift gold.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 41185/41905

· Support: 38988/38082

Wall Street’s major indices posted a fourth consecutive daily gain last Friday as hopes for easing trade tensions bolstered sentiment, aiding equities in further recovering after earlier sharp losses. The Dow briefly dipped intraday but rebounded to close slightly higher, supported by the 10-day moving average. It now hovers just above the 20-day moving average, and a decisive breakthrough above this level is necessary to extend the recovery.

NAS100

· Resistance: 20310/20747

· Support: 18869/18424

Tech giants continued to drive Wall Street’s recovery on Friday, with Tesla’s surge and Google’s strong earnings boosting sentiment. The NAS100 posted its highest close since April 2, breaking above the downtrend line from late March. The rally could extend toward the 20,000 level, although gains may be limited as markets await key US economic data this week.

BTC

· Resistance: 95616/ 97278

· Support: 91895 / 90204

Bitcoin rose 10% last week, consolidating near $94,000, bolstered by strong ETF inflows, institutional demand, and easing Fed and US-China tensions. The appointment of crypto-friendly SEC Chair Paul Atkins further enhanced sentiment. Technically, holding above $90,000 maintains the bullish setup, with a breakout above $95,616 likely aimed at $97,278. 

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