ATFX Market Outlook 3rd July 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 3rd July 2025

ADP Data Sparks Fed Speculation Ahead of Key NFP Release

Market HighlightWednesday’s ADP report showed a surprise decline of 33,000 private-sector jobs in June, marking the first contraction since March 2023 as economic uncertainty weighed on hiring. U.S. equities surged, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing at record highs, driven by gains in tech stocks and relief following the U.S.–Vietnam trade agreement, which eased concerns over prolonged trade tensions. The Dow edged down 0.02%, while the S&P 500 rose 0.47% and the Nasdaq climbed 0.94%.

U.S. Treasury yields ticked higher, and the U.S. dollar strengthened, supported by growing expectations for Fed rate cuts following the soft labor data. The Dollar Index rose 0.154% to 96.786, ending a nine-day losing streak. Meanwhile, the British pound fell as U.K. government bonds came under pressure amid political challenges to Prime Minister Starmer’s welfare reforms.

Gold rose 0.55% to $1,357.08/oz as weak U.S. jobs data boosted Fed rate cut hopes ahead of the NFP report.  Oil jumped 3% on tensions between Iran and the IAEA, as well as a U.S.–Vietnam trade deal, but a surprise U.S. inventory build capped the gains.

Key Outlook

The U.S. June NFP report, due early tonight ahead of the July 4th holiday, is expected to show slower job growth (110K vs. 139K in the prior month) and a slight uptick in unemployment to 4.3%. Steady wages (3.9% YoY) signal gradual labor market cooling. With bets on July rate cuts rising, the data may spark volatility amid holiday-thinned markets.

Key Data and Events Today: 

15:55 EU GERMANY Services & Composite PMI Final JUN **

16:00 EU Services & Composite PMI Final JUN **  

16:30 GB Services & Composite PMI Final JUN **  

20:30 US Non-Farm Payrolls JUN *** 

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***  

22:00 US ISM Services PMI JUN **  

Tomorrow

U.S. Holiday

17:00 EU PPI MAY ** 

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1830 / 1.1891

· Support: 1.1772 / 1.1695

EUR/USD edged down 0.08% to 1.1797, pressured by a firmer dollar. Although eurozone CPI reached the ECB’s 2% target, market focus remains on U.S. labor data and Fed policy direction. Technically, the pair holds above trendline support, with key levels at 1.1772 (support) and 1.1830 (resistance).

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3734 / 1.3764

· Support: 1.3593 / 1.3562

GBP/USD fell 0.79% to 1.3634 as UK gilts faced their steepest selloff since 2022, raising concerns over fiscal stability. Technically, the price is testing the 1.3593 support level. A rebound above this area may resume the channel uptrend toward 1.3764.

USDJPY

  Resistance: 144.18 / 144.79

· Support: 142.79/142.18

USD/JPY edged up 0.15% to 143.64 as U.S. yields steadied after weaker-than-expected ADP data. However, price remains capped below 144.18 and is now testing trendline support. A sustained break below 143.50 could open the door toward 142.79.

US Crude Oil Futures (AUG)

· Resistance: 68.98/ 70.53

· Support: 65.48/ 63.96

WTI crude surged over 3% to $65.98 amid renewed geopolitical risks, following Iran's suspension of cooperation with the IAEA. Sentiment was further boosted by the U.S.–Vietnam trade agreement. However, gains may be capped near the $68.98 resistance zone due to a surprise build in U.S. crude inventories. Price action suggests a bullish breakout, with $65.48 as immediate support.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 3399/3416

· Support: 3305/3283

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 37.01/37.31

· Support: 35.75/35.50

Spot gold rose 0.55% to $3,357.08/oz on Wednesday as weaker-than-expected ADP jobs data fueled market expectations of an earlier Fed rate cut. Technically, XAU/USD remains in a short-term rebound structure, with support at $3,305 and resistance near $3,399. Investors now await the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report for confirmation on the direction of policy.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 44679/44868

· Support: 44082/43897

Dow futures dipped slightly to 44,484.42, staying just 1.18% below record highs. Market sentiment was buoyed by strong tech earnings and optimism over U.S.–Asia trade deals, despite weaker ADP jobs data. Technically, the price is consolidating below the 44,678 resistance level. A breakout may trigger fresh highs, while failure to hold could lead to a pullback toward 44,082.

NAS100

· Resistance: 22882/23564

· Support: 22223/21381

NAS100 rose 0.94% to a record 20,393.13, led by Nvidia, Apple, and Tesla. Markets are now watching the NFP report for clues on Fed policy. The price is currently held within an ascending channel, with support at 22,224 and resistance near 22,882.

BTC

· Resistance: 109700/110520

· Support: 107300/106800

Bitcoin has bounced strongly from trendline support near $107,300 and reclaimed the $109,700 level. As long as the price holds above the ascending trendline, the bullish structure remains valid, with upside potential toward $110,520 and beyond. A breakdown below $107,300 would render the current setup invalid.

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please ensure that you understand the risk.

ATFX is a leading global fintech broker with a local presence in 24 locations and holds 9 licenses from regulatory authorities, including the UK's FCA, Australia's ASIC, Cyprus' CySEC, the UAE's SCA, Hong Kong's SFC, South Africa's FSCA, Mauritius' FSC, Seychelles' FSA, and Cambodia's SERC. With a strong commitment to customer satisfaction, innovative technology, and strict regulatory compliance, ATFX delivers exceptional trading experiences to clients worldwide.