ATFX Market Outlook 29th April 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 29th April 2025

Wall Street Ends Mixed, Bargain Hunting Lifts Gold Prices

Market HighlightThe S&P 500 index closed nearly flat on Monday after a choppy session, weighed down by losses in mega-cap stocks. Investors focused on several key drivers, including upcoming significant U.S. corporate earnings and critical economic data. Among the three major U.S. stock indexes, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.28%, the S&P 500 gained 0.06%, and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.1%.  

U.S. Treasury yields fell to a near three-week low, signaling partial stabilization following bond market turbulence earlier this month. The U.S. dollar broadly weakened as investors exercised caution ahead of potential updates on U.S. trade policy and braced for a series of key economic releases, which could offer initial clues as to whether President Trump's trade war is beginning to have an impact.  

Gold prices reversed earlier losses and finished higher, supported by bargain hunting. Markets continued to monitor developments in the U.S.-China trade talks and a slew of upcoming economic data. Spot gold rose 0.7% to $1,341.37 per ounce after dropping by 1.8% earlier in the session. Meanwhile, trade-related economic concerns weighed on demand forecasts, leading major institutions to revise their global oil demand projections. U.S. crude oil futures fell more than 2%.

Key Outlook

Today, focus on the Eurozone's April industrial sentiment and preliminary consumer confidence index. Both are expected to remain in negative territory, although Germany’s new economic stimulus plan may help drive partial improvement in the data. In the evening, attention will shift to the U.S. April Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which is expected to weaken to 87.6 (previous reading: 92.9). At the same time, the March JOLTs Job Openings report will also be released, providing the latest snapshot of the U.S. labor market. Openings are expected to decline slightly to 7.5 million (Previous: 7.568 million).

Key Data and Events Today:

Japan Holiday

14:00 EU GERMANY GfK Consumer Confidence MAY ** 

17:00 EU Consumer Confidence & Economic Sentiment APR ** 

22:00 US JOLTS Job Openings ** 

22:00 US CB Consumer Confidence APR ** 

Tomorrow:  

04:30 API Crude Stock Change *** 

09:30 CN NBS Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMI APR ** 

09:30 AU CPI Q1 **

09:45 CN Caixin Manufacturing PMI APR ** 

16:00 EU GERMANY GDP Flash Q1 ** 

17:00 EU GDP Flash Q1 ***

20:15 US ADP Employment Change APR ***

20:30 US GDP & Core PCE Price Index Adv Q1 ** 

22:00 US Core PCE Price Index MAR *** 

22:30 EIA Crude Stock Change ** 

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1500 / 1.1537

· Support: 1.1345 / 1.1309

EUR/USD slips to 1.1415 amid rising ECB rate cut bets and mixed US-China trade signals. Today, the focus turns to the Eurozone’s industrial sentiment and consumer confidence, both expected to be weak despite German stimulus, as well as to the US Consumer Confidence Index (forecast 87.6) and JOLTs data (forecast 7.5M) for further dollar guidance.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3497 / 1.3519

· Support: 1.3372 / 1.3350

GBP/USD rallied to nearly 1.3400 due to improved UK Retail Sales data and diminishing expectations of aggressive BoE rate cuts. Risk-on sentiment and the Fed’s pre-meeting blackout pressured the US Dollar. Markets now await BoE’s Ramsden speech later today for further policy signals. Technically, GBP/USD remains biased towards the upside, with resistance at 1.3497–1.3519 and support at 1.3372 and 1.3350.

USDJPY

· Resistance: 143.05 / 143.55

· Support: 141.52/ 140.90

USD/JPY fell toward 142.00 as fading US-China trade hopes and the upcoming BoJ meeting increased safe-haven demand for the Yen. Markets await US GDP, Nonfarm Payrolls, and BoJ updates, with risks tilted lower unless USD/JPY reclaims 143.00. Technical resistance stands at 143.05 and 143.55, while sentiment remains cautious around DXY 100.00 amid trade and Fed policy uncertainty.

US Crude Oil Futures (JUNE)

· Resistance: 62.54/63.70

· Support: 59.97/58.82

Crude oil ended its two-day rally on Monday, with losses accelerating during the US session as prices fell below $62, reaching a nearly two-week low. Key daily moving averages have been technically breached, with $62.50 now as resistance. A decisive break below the recent consolidation range could pave the way toward the $60 level.

Spot Gold

· Resistance: 3384/3428

· Support: 3311/3275

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 33.67/34.60

· Support: 32.19/31.45

Gold prices slipped to around $3,335 early Tuesday as easing US-China trade tensions and a firmer dollar weighed on safe-haven demand. Looking ahead, weaker-than-expected US data—especially today's Consumer Confidence and JOLTs Job Openings—could revive bullish momentum by reinforcing Fed rate cut bets. 

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 41185/41905

· Support: 38988/38082

Wall Street began the week with caution as markets awaited crucial US economic data and trade developments. The Dow finished modestly higher after briefly surpassing a one-week high above 40,400. Technically, the level of 40,400 serves as initial resistance, while staying above the 20-day moving average would support the recent rebound.

NAS100

· Resistance: 19752/20310

· Support: 18871/18426

Major tech stocks were mixed overnight, with Intel rising over 2% and Nvidia falling over 2%. The NAS100 traded within a narrow range and mainly closed unchanged, remaining near its early-April highs. Technically, the 20,000 level continues to be a key breakout point for bulls, while increased caution could prompt a pullback toward the 19,000 zone.

BTC

· Resistance: 97278/ 98941

· Support: 91895 / 90204

Bitcoin stabilizes above $94,000 after last week’s 10% rally, fueled by $3.06 billion in inflows into US spot ETFs, the strongest since November. If BTC can break and close above $95,000, it may extend gains toward $97,000. Institutional demand remains robust, and Arizona’s potential move to hold Bitcoin as a reserve asset could further enhance sentiment. The RSI indicates slight momentum cooling, but the broader trend remains bullish.

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