ATFX ​Market Outlook 29th September 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 29th September 2025

U.S. PCE Signals Resilient Spending, Markets Await NFP Clarity

Market HighlightU.S. consumer spending in August grew slightly above expectations, maintaining the economy's firm footing in Q3. U.S. stocks closed higher on Friday after inflation data largely matched forecasts, though all three major indices posted weekly losses: the Dow fell 0.2%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.3%, and the Nasdaq declined 0.7%. The U.S. dollar weakened against major peers on Friday but still recorded a second straight week of gains, as resilient economic data may complicate the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting efforts.

Gold prices rose on Friday, supported by expectations that the Fed may continue easing later this year after inflation data met forecasts. Spot gold gained 0.3% to $1,759.64 per ounce, up about 2% on the week. Oil prices ended little changed on Friday but still posted their biggest weekly advance since mid-June, as Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure curbed supply.

Key Outlook

This week marks the final trading days of September. On Monday, focus will be on European and U.S. data. Europe will release the September Economic Sentiment Indicator and Industrial Confidence Index, both expected to extend the recovery momentum, although the latter is likely to remain in negative territory. In the U.S., the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index for September is due and likely to stay in contraction, while pending home sales for August are expected to show a rebound.

Key Data and Events Today:

17:00 EU Economic Sentiment SEP **

22:00 US Pending Home Sales MoM AUG **  

22:30 US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index SEP ** 

Tomorrow:

07:50 BoJ Summary of Opinions **

07:50 JP Retail Sales MoM AUG **

09:30 CN Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMI SEP ** 

12:30 RBA Interest Rate Decision ***

13:30 RBA Press Conference ***  

14:00 EU GERMANY Retail Sales MoM AUG ** 

14:00 GB GDP QoQ Final Q2 *** 

15:55 EU GERMANY Unemployment Rate SEP ** 

20:00 EU GERMANY CPI MoM Prel SEP ** 

22:00 US JOLTs Job Openings AUG **  

22:00 US CB Consumer Confidence SEP **

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1758/1.1789

· Support: 1.1659/1.1629

EUR/USD closed at 1.1701, up 0.31% on the day but still down on the week, as Fed rate cut bets clashed with resilient U.S. data. Strong U.S. jobs could weigh on the euro again. Technically, the pair is rebounding from the 1.1659 support level, with upside capped near 1.1758; a break below 1.1659 would expose renewed downside.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3491/1.3526

· Support: 1.3346/1.3318

GBP/USD steadied near 1.3415 as softer U.S. PCE inflation supported Fed rate cut bets. The BoE’s cautious stance helps underpin sterling. Technically, the pair is rebounding from the 1.3346 support level, with upside targets at 1.3494. Suppose it holds above 1.3318, which favours further gains.

USDJPY

  Resistance: 149.56/150.00

· Support: 148.60/148.17

USD/JPY held at 149.48, easing 0.21% but still near multi-week highs, marking a fifth straight weekly gain. Strong U.S. yields and tariff risks underpin the dollar. Technically, support is located at 148.60, while resistance is positioned at 149.56; holding above support could sustain bullish momentum.

US Crude Oil Futures (NOV)

· Resistance: 65.50/65.98

· Support: 64.29/63.93

WTI steadied around $65 after spiking to $ 66.40, with Kurdish exports resuming and Russia’s softer tone on dialogue limiting the upside. Technically, the price consolidates above the $64.29 support, with range-bound action likely to occur between $64.5 and $64.29 until a breakout determines the direction.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 3799/3808

· Support: 3754/3745

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 47.50/48.23

· Support: 45.88/45.17

Spot gold traded around $3,767/oz after last week’s record $3,791. Fed rate cut bets (with an 88% chance in October) continue to offer a strong floor, while price action shows bulls defending the rising trendline. A push through $3,780 could re-test the highs near $3,799.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 46447/46567

· Support: 46163/46070

The Dow Futures climbed 0.65% to 46,247, buoyed by steady U.S. data and industrial strength. Technically, the index is trending within an ascending channel, with 46,163 as key support. A sustained break above 46,447 could open room toward 46,800, though quarter-end flows may spark volatility.

NAS100

· Resistance: 24707/24823

· Support: 24356/24206

The NAS100 rose 0.44%, though it snapped a three-week winning streak as broader tech weakness capped momentum. The index broke above a descending trendline, suggesting improved short-term sentiment. If bulls hold above 24,356, upside toward 24,707 is likely.

BTC

· Resistance: 114417/115515

· Support: 110859/109741

Bitcoin briefly slipped below $110k as the $22 billion options expiry and earlier liquidations weighed, while a flat core PCE kept Fed-cut bets intact. Technically, the 4 hourly chart shows a rebound within a contracting triangle, returning above $112k; key support levels sit at $110,859k–$109,741, with resistance at $114.417-$115,515. 

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