ATFX Market Outlook 3rd March 2025 

ATFX Market Outlook 3rd March 2025 

This Weekly: US March's Job Report Captivates Market!

[Markets highlight]

In January, U.S. consumer spending experienced its first decline in nearly two years, marking the largest drop in almost four years, although overall data met expectations. Despite this, U.S. stocks finished Friday higher, with the Dow Jones up 1.39%, the S&P 500 rising 1.59%, and the Nasdaq increasing by 1.63%. The dollar index reached a nearly two-week high, climbing 0.23% to 107.61, but registered its largest monthly drop since September in February.

Gold prices fell as the dollar strengthened, with spot gold dropping 0.6% to $2,858.60 per ounce, representing a 2.6% decline for the week, the largest since November. Oil prices also decreased for the first time since November due to geopolitical tensions and impending tariffs.

On the first trading day of March, countries released final manufacturing PMI values for February, with particular attention on the preliminary Eurozone CPI, which is expected to decline slightly to 2.3% from 2.5%. This data may influence the European Central Bank's decisions on interest rate cuts. Later, the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI for February is anticipated to remain above 50, indicating expansion, but a potential slowdown will be closely monitored.

[Financial data and events of significant concern]

16:55 EU GERMANY Manufacturing PMI Final FEB ** 

17:00 EU Manufacturing PMI Final FEB ** 

17:30 GB Manufacturing PMI Final FEB ** 

18:00 EU CPI Flash FEB *** 

23:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI FEB *** 

Tomorrow

08:30 RBA Meeting Minutes *** 

08:30 AU Retail Sales JAN ** 

18:00 EU Unemployment Rate JAN ** 

EURUSD

1.0448/1.0464 Resistance

1.0368/1.0348 Support

The EUR/USD pair recovered from a three-day decline and is now trading around 1.0410, as the U.S. Dollar weakened following January's PCE inflation reports, which aligned with forecasts. Nonetheless, the Euro's opportunity for further appreciation could be constrained by climbing U.S. Treasury yields and new tariffs introduced by President Trump. While the Euro gained strength due to positive German inflation figures, market expectations indicate that the ECB will likely continue its easing measures. Investors are also anticipating the release of the Eurozone's inflation data later today.

GBPUSD

1.2671/1.2716 Resistance

1.2522/1.2477 Support

The GBP/USD pair has seen renewed buying interest, bouncing back above 1.2600 after a dip from over 1.2700. This rise is bolstered by a minor weakness in the USD and forecasts of a more cautious approach from the Bank of England regarding policy easing. Nevertheless, worries about US tariffs and geopolitical tensions might cap further GBP gains. The pending US economic indicators, primarily the ISM Manufacturing PMI and Nonfarm Payrolls, will play a vital role in influencing USD demand and shaping expectations of Fed interest rates. 

USDJPY

151.31/151.75 Resistance

150.00/149.46 Support

In February, Japan's manufacturing sector contracted for the eighth straight month, even as the au Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 49.0 from 48.7, still under the growth threshold. Companies cited weak demand from the U.S., Europe, and China, with production falling for the sixth month in a row and new orders declining. While manufacturers exhibited some optimism, their outlook declined to its lowest since June 2020, exacerbated by worries about U.S. protectionist trade policies causing market uncertainty. Japan's bearish outlook coincides with a USD/JPY rally, recently surpassing the 150 mark and approaching the 151 level. 

US Crude Oil Futures (APR)

71.24/71.80 Resistance

69.44/68.87 Support

Oil prices fell last Friday, marking the first decline in three months, influenced by tensions between the U.S. and Ukraine, new tariffs from Washington, and Iraq resuming oil exports from Kurdistan. Crude oil rose above $70 in late trading but struggled to maintain momentum. This morning, it approached the 10-day moving average resistance, with higher resistance at the 20-day moving average around $71 if it breaks through.

Spot Gold

2894/2908 Resistance

2846/2832 Support

Spot Silver

31.54/31.80 Resistance

30.97/30.71 Support

Spot gold dropped over 1% in the last trading session, reaching its lowest level in nearly a month as U.S. inflation data met expectations, suggesting a cautious Federal Reserve on rate cuts. After two days of decline, gold briefly recovered to above $2,850, indicating a potential short-term rebound. However, key resistance remains at the 20-day moving average near $2,900.

Dow Futures

44044/44279 Resistance

43575/43344 Support

In the context of key U.S. inflation data meeting expectations and consumer spending data experiencing the most significant decline in four years, all three major U.S. stock indices rose in late trading on Friday, ending a losing streak. The Dow Futures posted its largest increase since early November of last year, moving away from its low range; however, its peak was capped at the 10-day moving average, which also represented the high of the range last week, thus necessitating a further breakthrough during the day to build on the rebound.

NAS100

21184/21383 Resistance

20539/20344 Support

After several days of decline, U.S. technology giants rebounded last Friday, with Nvidia and Tesla leading the way, both rising by more than 3%. The Nasdaq bounced back after testing its lowest level since mid-November last year, recovering half of the losses sustained during the previous trading day. Technically, it is attempting to break free from the lows, but the upward trend must continue to remain above the 21,000 mark.

BTC

96346/99490 Resistance

91375/88868 Support

Bitcoin surged over 20% on Monday, trading around $94,154, following U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of a new strategic reserve for digital assets, including Bitcoin, Ether, XRP, Solana, and Cardano. Ether also rose by 20%, while XRP, Solana, and Cardano experienced increases of 38%, 20%, and 78%, respectively. This news provided a much-needed boost to the crypto market, which has struggled since January. Most market participants expected the rally to continue into Trump's upcoming White House Crypto Summit, although broader market bearishness could affect sentiment.

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