ATFX Market Outlook 4th September 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 4th September 2025

Jobs Pulse Fuels Fed Cuts, Gold Rally Continues

Market HighlightThe Federal Reserve’s Beige Book indicated that overall economic activity was largely unchanged, with tariffs continuing to weigh on both businesses and households. Meanwhile, the JOLTS report showed a pronounced decline in job openings and an uptick in layoffs. Several Federal Reserve officials reiterated that labor market conditions remain the primary driver behind their expectation of future rate cuts.

Equities moved higher, with Nasdaq gaining about 1% on Wednesday and the S&P 500 closing higher on the back of strength in Alphabet, the parent company of Google, and optimism regarding potential rate reductions this month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged down by approximately 0.05%.

The data suggested weakening labor market conditions, reinforcing investors’ expectations for looser monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. The U.S. dollar retreated in after-hours trading, with USD/JPY slipping about 0.2% to 148.09. The euro advanced roughly 0.14% against the dollar to $1.1658, while the pound rose about 0.39% to $1.3445.

Gold prices extended their record rally as softer-than-expected U.S. jobs data reinforced expectations of a Fed rate cut later in the month, with lingering global uncertainty sustaining safe-haven demand. Spot gold finished up 0.7% at $3,558.72 per ounce, after trading at an intraday high of $3,578.50. Oil prices declined more than 2% ahead of the weekend meeting of OPEC+ producers, who are expected to consider raising their oil production target again in October.

Key Outlook

The primary focus today centers on U.S. employment data. August ADP payroll figures surprised to the upside, marking the fastest growth since March; market expectations now anticipate a moderation to 68,000. Initial jobless claims are projected to total 230,000 (versus 229,000 in the prior period), suggesting a relatively stable trend. The U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for August is expected to remain marginally in expansion territory at 50.1.

Key Data and Events Today:

17:00 EU Retail Sales JUL **

20:15 US ADP Employment Change AUG *** 

20:30 US Jobless Claims *** 

21:45 US Services & & Composite PMI Final AUG **

22:00 US ISM Services PMI AUG ***

Key Data and Events Tomorrow:

14:00 EU GERMANY Factory Orders JUL **

14:00 GB Retail Sales JUL *** 

17:00 EU GDP & Employment Change Final Q2 **

20:30 CA Jobs Report AUG **   

20:30 US Non-Farm Payrolls AUG ***   

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1717/1.1736

· Support: 1.1615/1.1596

EUR/USD rose modestly on Wednesday, approaching 1.1656 as dollar weakness supported upside, amid signs of potential Fed easing in September (odds > 90%). A softer July JOLTS supported the euro, breaking above 1.1650. The RSI remains bullish but not overextended, hinting at near-term consolidation. A break above 1.1736 could target 1.1800 and 1.1829, while a close below 1.1650 opens 1.1600. Monitor U.S. Jobs data and Fed commentary for rate-cut timing.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3489/1.3512

· Support: 1.3389/1.3370

GBP/USD rebounded from four-week lows, climbing above 1.3400 as risk appetite improved, but BoE Governor Bailey’s dovish comments limited gains. The pair hovers around the 50-day EMA near 1.3460, with downside risk if 1.3400 is broken and potential to rise if broad USD weakness resumes, possibly exceeding 1.3500. Market attention focuses on Thursday’s ADP data and Friday’s NFP, while the upcoming ISM Services PMI may influence risk sentiment and rate expectations, and impact the GBP indirectly.

USDJPY

  Resistance: 148.83/149.13

· Support: 147.25/146.95

The yen came under pressure amid a sharp rise in Japan's long-term yields but stabilized as the U.S. dollar eased. USD/JPY briefly breached 149, reaching its highest level since August 1 before reversing, with traders watching whether downside pressure can push the pair toward key support near 147.50, where a moving average sits.

US Crude Oil Futures (OCT)

· Resistance: 64.96/65.51

· Support: 63.20/62.66

Oil prices fell over 2% on Wednesday before a Sunday OPEC+ meeting expected to discuss output increases for October. WTI dropped to around $63.91, as traders anticipate possible supply gains that could reverse earlier reductions. The market is also monitoring US jobs data and ISM service PMI, alongside August Nonfarm Payrolls. Strong employment figures may boost the dollar and pressure oil prices, while signs of demand weakening could also keep prices subdued.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 3584/3609

· Support: 3524/3505

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 41.41/41.62

· Support: 40.73/40.52

Gold outlook remains constructive but cautious as the RSI in daily has reached the overbought territory around 80 ahead of the US key job data, suggesting possible near-term consolidation. A break above the all-time high near $3,578, with further upside to $3,584 and $3,609. On the downside, a move below $3,550 could open a path towards $3,524 and $3,505, then the August 29 high around $3,454, and towards $3,400.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 45482/45658

· Support: 44885/44657

U.S. indices posted mixed moves overnight as weak labor data boosted expectations for a Fed rate cut, while broader economic concerns weighed on the Dow. The Dow rebounded after two days of testing support, with bearish momentum easing but upside momentum unclear. The index faces a key test above the 10-day moving average around 45,400 to signal a more sustained recovery.

NAS100

· Resistance: 23664/23819

· Support: 23170/23017

Tech stocks led gains overnight, with the Nasdaq rising more than 1% on strength from Google and Apple, while testing resistance near the 10-day moving average. A break above this level could extend momentum toward the 20-day moving average, positioned above 23,500. Additional US employment data due today and tomorrow will be key in guiding whether the breakout can be sustained.

BTC

· Resistance: 113553/114748

· Support: 111164/109686

Bitcoin stabilised on Wednesday after modest losses, trading near $111,580 as traders remained cautious due to U.S. trade tariff uncertainty and expectations of lower interest rates. Safe-haven assets like gold and the U.S. dollar outperformed Bitcoin this week amid growing debt concerns and risk aversion. Caution ahead of key U.S. labor data, including ADP, jobless claims, and the Friday nonfarm payrolls report, contributed to the cautious atmosphere. Bitcoin rose approximately 0.25% as markets awaited the latest employment data to assess policy expectations.

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