ATFX Market Outlook 9th October 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 9th October 2025

Spot Gold Breaks Above $4,000 for the First Time; Powell’s Speech in Focus Tonight

Market HighlightU.S. stocks closed higher on Wednesday, supported by gains in technology shares, while the government shutdown continues to deprive markets of economic data. The Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes highlighted rising risks in the labor market, although policymakers remained vigilant regarding inflation. The Dow finished little changed, while the S&P 500 rose 0.58% and the Nasdaq gained 1.1%, with both indices closing at record highs. The U.S. dollar index climbed for a third consecutive session, as the yen and euro remained under pressure from political developments.

Amid heightened economic uncertainty, investors rushed into safe-haven assets. Spot gold broke above the $4,000 per ounce mark for the first time on Wednesday, extending its record-breaking rally. Silver also reached a historic high, buoyed by gold’s surge and attracting further buying interest. Oil prices rose by more than 1%, hitting a one-week high, as traders anticipated prolonged sanctions on Russia, given the stalled Ukraine peace talks. Meanwhile, a weekly report showed stronger U.S. oil demand.

Key Outlook

All eyes are now on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who is scheduled to deliver opening remarks at a Fed-hosted community banking conference later tonight. With the U.S. government shutdown preventing the release of timely economic data, Powell’s comments will be closely watched for any guidance on the Fed’s future policy direction.

Key Data and Events Today

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims *** 

20:30 Fed Chair Powell Speaks ***

22:00 US Wholesale Sales AUG **

Tomorrow: 

20:30 CA Unemployment Rate SEP ** 

22:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel OCT ***

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1688/1.1725

· Support: 1.1605/1.1569

EUR/USD fell to 1.1616, briefly hitting 1.1597, its lowest since late August, as French political instability and the U.S. government shutdown pressured the euro. The pair remains capped by the 1.1688 trendline resistance, with support at 1.1605, while traders await Eurozone data and Fed policy cues.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3481/1.3506

· Support: 1.3323/1.3299

GBP/USD traded around 1.3409, with strong resistance at 1.3481 keeping rallies capped. Market sentiment remains cautious as traders assess the Fed minutes and risks of a U.S. shutdown. A sustained break below the ascending trendline on the H4 chart and the 1.3323 support level could reinforce the downside bias.

USDJPY

  Resistance: 152.80/153.30

· Support: 152.41/152.02

USD/JPY spiked to 152.70, its highest since February, as dovish fiscal expectations under Japan’s new PM Sanae Takaichi weighed on the yen. Key support lies at 152.02, while a breakout of the descending trendline on the H1 chart could retest the 152.80 resistance level. A sustained break above the resistance will lead to further gains.

US Crude Oil Futures (NOV)

· Resistance: 62.87/63.44

· Support: 61.05/60.48

WTI climbed 1.3% to $62.55, and Brent added 1.2% to $66.25, both reaching one-week highs. Gains came as U.S. demand data strengthened while Russia-Ukraine peace talks stalled, reinforcing supply concerns. Momentum remains constructive, though resistance near $62.87 could cap upside in the short term.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 4087/4116

· Support: 4002/3968

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 49.34/49.59

-Support: 48.28/48.04

Spot gold surged above $ 4,050, extending its historic rally on bets of a Fed rate cut, the U.S. government shutdown, and intensifying geopolitical risks. UBS raised its year-end target to $4,200, citing resilient demand for safe havens and central bank purchases. Momentum remains bullish with support at $ 4,002 and the potential to test $4,087–$41,16 in the near term.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 46822/46934

· Support: 46358/46249

The Dow Futures ended flat near 46,600, underperforming peers as weakness in energy and housing sectors capped gains. Traders now await Fed minutes and the upcoming Q3 earnings season for further direction, with support at 46,358 and resistance at 46,822.

NAS100

· Resistance: 25218/25287

· Support: 25011/24922

NAS100 surged 1.12% to 23,043, leading gains on AI-driven momentum, with AMD soaring 11% and extending its weekly rally above 40%. Technically, price is supported by the rising trendline near 25,011, with resistance at 25,218. Holding above the trendline maintains the bullish bias, but a failure to sustain this position could trigger a pullback before another push higher.

BTC

· Resistance: 124836/125918

· Support: 120170/119050

Bitcoin pulled back to $123,811 after reaching a record high of $126,199. US-listed spot ETFs posted strong inflows of $1.21B, marking a six-day positive streak since September 29. Institutional demand remains firm, though some profit-taking has emerged. Overall, the Q4 outlook is still bullish, with resistance near $134,836 and support at $120,170.

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