Euro climbs to five-week high ahead of US CPI data

The EUR/USD pair reached a five-week high at 1.0822, buoyed by positive market sentiment ahead of today's crucial US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release. The report is expected to show a 0.3% month-on-month increase in inflation for April, a slight decrease from the 0.4% rise in March.

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair reached a five-week high at 1.0822, buoyed by positive market sentiment ahead of today's crucial US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release. The report is expected to show a 0.3% month-on-month increase in inflation for April, a slight decrease from the 0.4% rise in March.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently provided a confident assessment of the US economy, predicting above-trend GDP growth and a decline in inflation. Despite some recent data that has slightly challenged this optimism, Powell's outlook remains resilient. This year's unexpected surge in US consumer prices has led to a revision in the Fed's interest rate cut forecasts, with the market now anticipating a 45-basis point reduction by the end of 2024.

Investor expectations have significantly shifted throughout the year. They anticipated six rate cuts at the beginning of 2024, but now they only foresee a maximum of one by May. The Fed's future decisions depend heavily on ongoing price trends and inflation forecasts.

EUR/USD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, the EUR/USD has formed a consolidation range around 1.0785. With an upward exit from this range, a continuation of the correction is expected. The growth to 1.0827 has already been achieved, and a retraction to 1.0805 (testing from above) is anticipated today. Subsequent developments may lead to an increase towards 1.0844. This growth pattern from the level of 1.0601 is viewed as a correction to the last decline wave. Following its completion, a new wave of decline to 1.0600 is expected. This scenario is technically supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line above zero and directed upwards, although histograms are at maximums and preparing for a decline.

On the H1 chart, after reaching 1.0805, a consolidation range was established above this level. Following an upward breakout, the price moved to 1.0827. Once this level is tested, a potential decline to 1.0805 (testing from above) could occur, leading to further growth towards 1.0844. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this technical outlook, with its signal line currently above 80. A decline to 50 followed by a rebound to 80 is expected, then a potential drop to 20, indicating upcoming fluctuations.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author's particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

read more
Daily Global Market Update

Daily Global Market Update

Oil gained 0.7%. The Australian dollar is overbought but unchanged. The Euro and Dollar-yen traded sideways; the Euro is overbought, and the Dollar-yen has a negative signal. China's gasoline exports hit a low. Japan's Nippon Steel VP will visit the US for a deal. Global stocks rose on potential Fed rate cuts.
Moneta Markets | 8h 30min ago
Dollar Index Ends Flat, AUD, GBP Outperform

Dollar Index Ends Flat, AUD, GBP Outperform

The Dollar Index (DXY), a measure of the Greenback’s value against a basket of 6 major currencies, finished flat, at 104.50. Fed officials called for caution before moving to cut interest rates despite signs of cooling inflation.
ACY Securities | 11h 48min ago
Forex Market Report - 20/05/2024

Forex Market Report - 20/05/2024

This Forex Market Report offers an overview of critical economic and financial events that impact the global forex markets. Traders should closely monitor developments to fine-tune their trading strategies accordingly.
DNA Markets | 18h 43min ago
EUR/USD Appears Ready for a Pullback Due to Inflationary Factors in the USA

EUR/USD Appears Ready for a Pullback Due to Inflationary Factors in the USA

EUR/USD has risen approximately 1% this week due to a decline in the dollar, although the euro is trailing behind other pro-cyclical currencies in the G10, excluding the US data-sensitive CAD. This isn't unexpected, as the euro has the weakest three-month correlation with two-year USD swap rates, which previously insulated it from significant upward adjustments in Fed expectations.
ACY Securities | 3 days ago