Inflationary pressures are easing in Indonesia. Oil prices rise amid falling inventories

Major Indices Performance

On the last trading day of 2024, major global indices delivered mixed results. The following summaries capture the year-end statistics:

• Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30): Down by 0.07% on December 31, closing the year with a remarkable +12.80% gain.

• S&P 500 Index (US500): Declined by 0.43%, but posted a stellar annual performance of +24.01%.

• Nasdaq Technology Index (US100): Dropped 0.87%, capping an impressive year with +27.01% growth.

As investors look forward to fresh data, December’s US Manufacturing Activity Index, set to release this Friday, remains pivotal in shaping early 2025 market sentiment. The index is forecasted to dip slightly by 0.2 points to 48.2, indicating continued contraction in the sector.

Global Currencies and Commodities

Mexican Peso

The Mexican peso faced headwinds due to a strengthening US dollar, buoyed by rising yields and safe-haven demand. Amidst thin holiday liquidity, the peso concluded 2024 as one of the worst-performing emerging market currencies, tumbling by nearly 19% year-to-date.

Crude Oil

WTI crude oil surged above $72 per barrel during the first post-New Year trading session, following data from the API showing a 1.4 million barrel decline in US crude inventories. If official data confirms this trend, it would represent the third consecutive weekly drop.

Australian Dollar (AUD)

Recovering from two-year lows, the Australian dollar climbed above US$0.62, supported by rising commodity prices that favour Australia’s position as a net exporter.

New Zealand Dollar (NZD)

The New Zealand dollar experienced modest gains, fuelled by optimism surrounding China’s economic recovery. However, dovish expectations from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and weaker factory activity data continued to weigh on the currency.

European and Asian Market Highlights

European Markets

Markets across Europe were closed on December 31, but full-year performances revealed notable trends:

• Germany’s DAX (DE40): +18.72%

• France’s CAC 40 (FR40): -1.99%

• Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35): +13.88%

• UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100): +5.85%

Asian Markets

On December 31, Asian indices displayed mixed movements:

• Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225): Closed for trading, ending 2024 with +19.85% growth.

• China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50): Declined by 1.03%, posting +19.50% for the year.

• Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50): Added 0.09%, finishing the year with +19.49% growth.

• Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200): Closed for trading, up by 7.18% over 2024.

Key Economic Data

China

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) injected a record 1.7 trillion yuan ($233 billion) into the economy in December, signalling continued accommodative policies to counteract trade-related headwinds. This follows earlier injections of 800 billion yuan and 500 billion yuan in October and November, respectively.

Singapore

Singapore’s GDP growth slowed to 4.3% in Q4 2024 from 5.4% in Q3. However, the full-year expansion of 4% outpaced both the 2023 growth rate (1.1%) and forecasted figures (3.5%).

Indonesia

Indonesia’s annual inflation held steady at 1.57% in December, slightly below market expectations of 1.6%, but comfortably within the central bank’s target range of 1.5% to 3.5%.

S&P 500 Daily Chart (US500)

Crude Oil Intraday Chart (USCRUDEOIL)

Upcoming Key Events (GMT+2)

• Australia Manufacturing PMI at 00:00

• China Caixin Manufacturing PMI at 03:45

• Switzerland Manufacturing PMI at 10:30

• Germany Manufacturing PMI at 10:55

• Eurozone Manufacturing PMI at 11:00

• UK Manufacturing PMI at 11:30

• US Initial Jobless Claims at 15:30

• Canada Manufacturing PMI at 16:30

• US Manufacturing PMI at 16:45

• US Crude Oil Reserves at 18:00