Trade Talks Boost Aussie Surge | 10th June, 2025

On June 10, 2025, global markets are buoyed by optimism from ongoing US-China trade talks in London, extending into a second day, which boosts risk sentiment and pressures safe-haven assets. Gold (XAU/USD) drops to $3,300, driven by modest USD strength (DXY at 99.00) and reduced safe-haven demand, though Fed rate-cut bets (60% for September) and geopolitical risks (Russia-Ukraine, Middle East) limit losses. AUD/USD rises to 0.6520, supported by China’s trade surplus (CNY743.56B) and trade optimism, while AUD/JPY climbs to 94.50 amid JPY weakness. USD/CAD holds above 1.3700, supported by USD gains but capped by rising WTI crude ($64.65) bolstering CAD. GBP/USD hovers at 1.3540, and EUR/GBP consolidates above 0.8400 ahead of UK jobs data (4.6% unemployment expected). Silver (XAG/USD) remains steady at $34.50. Key catalysts include US CPI (2.5% YoY expected), UK employment, and trade talk outcomes, with US fiscal concerns and geopolitical tensions adding volatility.

Gold Price Forecast (XAU/USD)

Current Price and Context

Gold (XAU/USD) trades at $3,300, down to a one-week low, pressured by USD strength and US-China trade optimism.

Key Drivers

US-China Trade Talks: Second-day London meeting, described as “good” by US Treasury Secretary Bessent, reduces safe-haven demand, capping gold upside.

USD Strength: DXY at 99.00 gains from strong NFP (139K vs. 130K) and reduced Fed rate-cut odds, pressuring gold.

Federal Reserve Policy: 60% chance of a September rate cut (CME FedWatch) and US fiscal concerns (Trump’s $4T bill) limit USD gains, supporting gold.

Geopolitical Risks: Russia’s airstrike on Ukraine (500 drones/missiles) and Middle East tensions sustain safe-haven flows, capping losses.

US Inflation Data: Upcoming CPI (2.5% YoY expected) could sway Fed rate-cut expectations, impacting gold.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Bearish near-term, below 200-hour SMA. Negative hourly oscillators suggest further downside.

Resistance: $3,333-$3,334 (100-hour SMA), then $3,352-$3,353 and $3,377-$3,378.

Support: $3,294-$3,293 (overnight low), then $3,246-$3,245 (May 29 low) and $3,200.

Forecast: Gold may test $3,294 if trade talks progress. Strong CPI (>2.5%) could push to $3,200; weak CPI (<2.3%) may drive $3,352.Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: X posts show gold at $3,300-$3,392, with $3,500 possible if risks escalate. Long Forecast projects $3,600 by Q4 2025.

Catalysts: US CPI/PPI, UK jobs data, US-China trade talks, geopolitical developments.

Silver Price Forecast (XAG/USD)

Current Price and Context

Silver (XAG/USD) trades at $34.50, steady as trade optimism offsets geopolitical demand.

Key Drivers

Safe-Haven Demand: Russia-Ukraine escalation and Middle East tensions support silver, balanced by US-China trade hopes.

US Economic Data: Strong NFP (139K) bolsters USD, but rate-cut bets (60% for September) limit silver’s downside.

China’s Economy: Trade surplus (CNY743.56B) and Services PMI (51.1) boost industrial demand, though deflation (CPI -0.1%) caps gains.

US Fiscal Concerns: Trump’s budget bill and “Sell America” trend add uncertainty, supporting silver.

Monetary Policy: Fed rate-cut expectations bolster non-yielding assets.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Neutral-to-bullish, in a rectangular pattern. RSI above 50 suggests upside potential.

Resistance: $34.80 (rectangle’s upper boundary), then $34.90 (seven-week high) and $35.80 (March high).

Support: $33.10 (50-day EMA), then $32.80 (rectangle’s lower boundary) and $32.50 (six-week low).

Forecast: Silver may test $34.80 if geopolitical risks persist. Strong trade deal could push to $32.80; weak deal may drive $35.00.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: X posts highlight silver’s stability at $34.00+, with $37.79 possible in 2025 per CoinCodex.

Catalysts: US CPI/PPI, UK jobs data, US-China trade talks, geopolitical risks.

Australian Dollar Forecast (AUD/USD)

Current Price and Context

AUD/USD trades at 0.6520, up for the second day, driven by US-China trade optimism and China’s trade surplus.

Key Drivers

US-China Trade Talks: London meeting optimism, with focus on technology and rare earths, supports AUD as a China-proxy currency.

China’s Economy: Trade surplus at CNY743.56B and Services PMI at 51.1 bolster AUD, despite deflation (CPI -0.1%, PPI -3.3%).

Australian Data: Westpac Consumer Confidence up 0.5% MoM in June (vs. 2.2% prior) reflects trade uncertainty, limiting AUD gains.

US Economic Data: Strong NFP (139K) supports USD, with CPI (2.5% YoY expected) as a key focus.

RBA Policy: Dovish May minutes favor a 25 bps cut, capping AUD upside.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Bullish, within an ascending channel. RSI above 50 and above 9-day EMA (0.6489) support upside.

Resistance: 0.6538 (seven-month high), then 0.6687 (eight-month high) and 0.6690 (channel’s upper boundary).

Support: 0.6489 (9-day EMA), then 0.6480 (channel’s lower boundary) and 0.6412 (50-day EMA).

Forecast: AUD/USD may test 0.6538 if trade talks succeed. Strong CPI could push to 0.6412; weak CPI may drive 0.6687.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: X posts note AUD strength at 64.66 US cents, with 0.67 possible per CoinCodex by Q3 2025.

Catalysts: US CPI/PPI, UK jobs data, US-China trade talks, Chinese economic data.

AUD/JPY Forecast

Current Price and Context

AUD/JPY trades near 94.50, up for the fourth day, driven by JPY weakness and trade optimism.

Key Drivers

BoJ Policy: Ueda’s openness to rate hikes if inflation nears 2% contrasts with PM Ishiba’s borrowing cost concerns, weakening JPY.

US-China Trade Talks: Optimism supports AUD, with Australia benefiting from China’s trade surplus (CNY743.56B).

Australian Data: Westpac Consumer Confidence up 0.5% MoM supports AUD, though trade uncertainty lingers.

Geopolitical Risks: Russia-Ukraine and Middle East tensions favor risk-sensitive AUD over safe-haven JPY.

China’s Economy: Trade surplus and Services PMI (51.1) strengthen AUD.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Bullish, with RSI nearing overbought levels.

Resistance: 94.50, then 95.00 and 95.50.

Support: 93.50, then 93.00 and 92.50.

Forecast: AUD/JPY may test 95.00 if trade talks progress. BoJ hawkish signals could push to 93.50.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: X posts highlight AUD/JPY’s rally, with 95.00 possible if JPY weakens further.

Catalysts: US CPI/PPI, UK jobs data, US-China trade talks, BoJ signals.

USD/CAD Forecast

Current Price and Context

USD/CAD trades at 1.3700, up for the third day, supported by USD strength but capped by rising oil prices and trade optimism.

Key Drivers

US-China Trade Talks: Easing tensions reduce US-Canada tariff fears, supporting CAD. Bessent’s “good meeting” boosts optimism.

Oil Prices: WTI at $64.65 supports commodity-linked CAD, Canada’s key crude exporter to the US.

US Economic Data: Strong NFP (139K) bolsters USD, with CPI (2.5% YoY expected) critical.

BoC Policy: Rates held at 2.75% with cautious guidance support CAD.

US Fiscal Concerns: Trump’s $4T bill pressures USD, aiding CAD.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Neutral-to-bullish, above 1.3700. RSI near 50 reflects balanced momentum.

Resistance: 1.3750, then 1.3800.

Support: 1.3635 (eight-month low), then 1.3600.

Forecast: USD/CAD may test 1.3750 if CPI is strong. Trade deal progress could push to 1.3600.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: X posts show CAD resilience, with 1.35 possible by Q3 2025 per Long Forecast.

Catalysts: US CPI/PPI, UK jobs data, US-China trade talks, US-Canada tariff updates.

GBP/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

GBP/USD trades at 1.3540, down slightly within an ascending channel, ahead of UK jobs data.

Key Drivers

UK Economic Data: Expected ILO Unemployment Rate rise to 4.6% and slowing wage growth could pressure BoE to cut rates, weakening GBP.

BoE Policy: Bailey’s cautious rate-cut stance supports GBP, but trade uncertainties linger.

US Economic Data: Strong NFP (139K) supports USD, with CPI (2.5% YoY expected) in focus.

US-China Trade Talks: Optimism caps USD gains, aiding GBP/USD.

US Fiscal Concerns: Trump’s $4T bill limits USD strength.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Bullish, within an ascending channel. RSI near 60 supports upside.

Resistance: 1.3600-1.3615 (multi-year high), then 1.3700 and 1.3800.

Support: 1.3520 (50-period SMA), then 1.3480 (100-period SMA) and 1.3380 (23.6% Fibonacci).

Forecast: GBP/USD may test 1.3600 if UK data outperforms. Strong CPI could push to 1.3480.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: X posts highlight GBP strength, with 1.37 possible by Q3 2025 per Long Forecast.

Catalysts: UK jobs data, US CPI/PPI, US-China trade talks.

EUR/GBP Forecast

Current Price and Context

EUR/GBP trades above 0.8400, consolidating in a one-week range, awaiting UK jobs data.

Key Drivers

UK Economic Data: Rising unemployment (4.6% expected) and slowing wages could weaken GBP, supporting EUR/GBP.

ECB Policy: Lagarde’s hint at nearing neutral rates limits EUR upside, but Eurozone inflation below 2% fuels easing bets.

BoE Policy: Pressure for BoE rate cuts contrasts with ECB’s pause, favoring EUR/GBP.

US-China Trade Talks: Risk-on sentiment indirectly supports EUR over GBP.

Geopolitical Risks: Russia-Ukraine tensions bolster EUR’s safe-haven appeal.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Neutral, above 200-day SMA. RSI near 50 suggests consolidation.

Resistance: 0.8450, then 0.8500.

Support: 0.8400, then 0.8350 and 0.8300.

Forecast: EUR/GBP may test 0.8450 if UK data disappoints. Strong UK data could push to 0.8350.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: X posts suggest EUR/GBP stability, with upside if GBP weakens.

Catalysts: UK jobs data, US CPI/PPI, US-China trade talks.

WTI Crude Oil Forecast

Current Price and Context

WTI crude trades at $64.65, up to a seven-week high, driven by US-China trade optimism and geopolitical risks.

Key Drivers

US-China Trade Talks: London meeting fuels demand expectations, supporting WTI. Trump’s positive comments add tailwinds.

Geopolitical Risks: Russia-Ukraine (Kyiv/Odesa attacks) and Middle East tensions limit downside.

OPEC+ Output: July hike of 411,000 bpd caps gains due to oversupply fears.

US Economic Data: Strong NFP (139K) signals demand resilience, with CPI (2.5% YoY) as a focus.

USD Strength: DXY at 99.00 limits WTI upside.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Bullish, above $63.20-$63.30 breakout. RSI near 55 suggests further upside.

Resistance: $65.00, then $66.00.

Support: $63.20-$63.30, then $60.00.

Forecast: WTI may test $65.00 if trade talks succeed. Oversupply fears could push to $60.00.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: X posts show WTI at $65.67, with $70 possible by Q4 2025 per Long Forecast.

Catalysts: US CPI/PPI, UK jobs data, US-China trade talks, OPEC+ updates.

Wrap-Up

On June 10, 2025, markets are energized by US-China trade talks in London, lifting AUD/USD (0.6520), AUD/JPY (94.50), and WTI crude ($64.65) while pressuring gold ($3,300) and silver ($34.50). USD/CAD (1.3700) gains on USD strength, GBP/USD (1.3540) awaits UK jobs data, and EUR/GBP (0.8400) consolidates. US CPI (2.5% YoY expected), UK employment (4.6% unemployment expected), and trade talk outcomes are key, with Russia-Ukraine escalation and US fiscal concerns adding volatility. Trade these opportunities with Moneta Markets’ 1000+ instruments and ultra-fast execution. Start now at monetamarkets.com!