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Market Manipulation?

jimcameron
Nov 10 2016 at 10:04
20 posts
Greggy posted:
Call me a sore loser, but I can't help but feel I was deliberately stopped out the night of the US Election. Nothing about these charts makes any sense to me, nothing about the Fibonacci retracements - nothing!!! Furthermore, as soon as they stopped me out I started closing my positions and then hey presto US$ starts to rise!!!


Your charts match mine, there is no manipulation. The increase in volatility has caused your system to breakdown because your system is probably not designed to take advantage of volatility. The market does what it does, you can draw lines to show patterns on past prices but it does not mean the market will obey that in the future, it's not that easy.

You have had some really good advice from other traders on all your posts, if you listen to them it will help you. Keep it up T...

theHand
Nov 11 2016 at 07:08
365 posts
There is manipulation. There's always been, there will always be.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/may/20/banks-hit-by-record-57bn-fine-for-rigging-forex-markets

The make so much money from it, the fines don't even matter, they'll pay, say sorry and simply carry on. Why would they stop ? No one goes to jail, the fines are to small to have much impact. So it's business as usual.

jimcameron
Nov 11 2016 at 09:13
20 posts
theHand posted:
There is manipulation. There's always been, there will always be.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/may/20/banks-hit-by-record-57bn-fine-for-rigging-forex-markets

The make so much money from it, the fines don't even matter, they'll pay, say sorry and simply carry on. Why would they stop ? No one goes to jail, the fines are to small to have much impact. So it's business as usual.


Yes I see that and you are right there, but how can anyone look at a chart and say that the patterns are caused by manipulation, there are so many traders doing different things, no one can say what is happening.

Greggy lost on those trades, but what about the traders that didn't, how can there be manipulation if you loose and when you win it's trading skill?. I made 17.01% that day from the same patterns I could see on his attached charts “showing manipulation” is that positive manipulation that benefited me?

My point to Greggy was he lost those trades, why? because his system broke down and instead of blaming manipulation, learn from it and move on. Lesson? don't trade that system when there is huge volatility. This reads a bit like a rant but it's not.

Dove_Services
Nov 11 2016 at 09:21
33 posts
Greggy posted:
Call me a sore loser, but I can't help but feel I was deliberately stopped out the night of the US Election. Nothing about these charts makes any sense to me, nothing about the Fibonacci retracements - nothing!!! Furthermore, as soon as they stopped me out I started closing my positions and then hey presto US$ starts to rise!!!


Firstly, the market is not interested in your demo account positions. The notion that the market is out to game your positions is unfortunately blame shifting. The golden rule is that the market is always right and so our job as trader is to understand how to position ourselves for the trade. Frankly the market doesn't care about your many lines and Fibonacci levels. The market will do what it wants to do.

Your comments of confusion would suggest to me that you have no idea what just happened. If you don't understand how the market works, how are you going to be consistently successful if that is your objective? As I said before, TA and trading are two different but integral components. Unfortunately you have a myopic view that TA is the solution. It is not because that are other elements involved.

This leads to my second point. What just happened with the market? When you trade you want to have an edge so that the outcome is more favourable to you than not. For weeks and leading to polling day, the market was generally of the view that Clinton will win. The odds quoted were from 75 % to 89 %. We can see that the currency market was pricing in such a result by the narrow volatility. As trader we always ask a basic question. Where does the risk and reward lie? if it turns out to be a Clinton win then the expectation would be limited reaction because the market has already priced in the anticipated result. This election is a binary event. It is either Clinton or Trump. However if it is a Trump win then the market will have a sharp reaction going the other side as it would have been caught on the wrong end. In other words, if you were to position for a trade, the risk and reward lies with a Trump win. This was an event setting up exactly like Brexit when the market was caught on the wrong side and so you would trade it like if you had traded Brexit.

Having established a possible trade scenario, the question was how do you enter the trade. An aggressive entry would be to limit in at the edges but that would be front running an event outcome that is not yet known. The less aggressive entry was a stop in and this is likely to be triggered when the initial returns started to indicate a Trump win and the key state to watch was Florida. There was a bit of volatility both ways when the Florida result see saw between who was leading but finally broke immediate key support when it appears that Trump was going to take Florida. That was the stop in scenario. The other question then becomes where do you exit your position. We know that the reaction would blow through a number of key levels but at which level would it be meaningful to take profits. Bill Mclaren always said that if you know your position is at risk when it gets to a certain level, you need to make a trade decision rather than do nothing.

There you have it. Plan your trade and trade your plan.

           

Tony Gregg
Greggy (Greggy)
Nov 11 2016 at 09:25
158 posts
20 hours of market manipulation!!! Sick of it, just feel I'm wasting my time with this game!!!

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Tony Gregg
Greggy (Greggy)
Nov 11 2016 at 09:25
158 posts
Elliott Wave Theorists making up the market as they go along or should I say bankers!!!

Tony Gregg
Greggy (Greggy)
Nov 11 2016 at 09:25
158 posts
Tony Gregg
Greggy (Greggy)
Nov 11 2016 at 09:25
158 posts
USDCHF should have gone up yesterday!!!

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Tony Gregg
Greggy (Greggy)
Nov 11 2016 at 09:25
158 posts
Here's your Elliott Wave Count USDCHF 1 minute:

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Tony Gregg
Greggy (Greggy)
Nov 11 2016 at 09:25
158 posts
USDCHF with new Fib retracement on 1 minute.

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