eur / jpy After clear MACD signals (crossing the signal line and pronounced convergence) on the hourly chart, also price line position under the EMA 100 and EMA 200 lines, gave me reason to open a sell trade. I took into account the possible risks that could be associated with support at 142.00 and it can be noted as EMA 100 on the four hour chart. But having shown patience and trust in my trading system, I was in no hurry to close the trade too early, during the pullback of 141.840 – 142.250. In addition, I saw that the Euro Dollar (correlated currency pair for the Euro) did not receive enough support to break the trend.
The gbp / jpy is a currency pair that correlates with the eur/jpy. The trade was processed according to a similar scenario. I traded the downtrend on the hourly chart even though the MACD was not as clear as the Euro Yen. I took this fact into account during risks calculation.
For both trades the stop loss levels had been placed above the nearest resistance levels.
Today’s analysis is related to my EUR/USD trade on September 27th. Also welcome to read about my analysis of profitable trades that I made before in the previous post.
So, the Euro/Dollar, according to my forecast, had a clear divergence on the daily chart. Declining to the levels of 0.95700 formed a narrowing correction, which can be seen on the four-hour chart, where the MACD showed a crossing line signal for a further increase. At the same time, on the hourly chart, the correction showed a strong upward potential and show a convergence on the MACD as confirmation of further growth after going beyond the correction. I waited until the price starts to fluctuate steadily around the key support area of 0.96000 and opened a buy trade.
The first critical moment was when it reached 0.95700, when it became clear that the narrowing correction had changed to a directional corrective trend, and in case of an absolutely correct trading decision, it was necessary to close the trade during the following growth and fluctuations around 0.96000 key level. But instead, I was counting on a rise to the higher 0.96300. However, as the result the trade was close at stop loss level 0.95681. Thus, this is the mistake in too high deviation in risk management. In this situation, it was necessary to respond to risk signals with higher sensitivity.
I published a short analysis before opening a trade on my telegram channel. if you are interested in understanding the principles of trading on my PAMM account, then welcome (find link in bio). The main theses of analytics on which this trade was opened:
confident breakout of the level 0.97230 breaking through the level of EMA 100 on a thirty-minute chart clear divergence on the hourly chart clear MACD signal on the hourly chart and on the four-hour chart.
In addition to these data, I used the LUX algorithm for calculating possible risks , stop loss level set at 0.96634
The first eur/usd and gbp/jpy trades are unprofitable, because I mistakenly took the breakout of the key marker level of 1.03880 on the EUR/USD as a buy signal. The breaking through this level turned out to be false, and the trade was closed by stop loss. GBP/JPY reached the level of EMA 100 on the hourly chart and EMA 200 on the thirty-minute chart. Given the situation on the four-hour chart and the MACD divergence, I decided to sell. This is a hasty decision that did not take into account the possibility of an extension of the corrective trend on the four-hour chart to the EMA 100 level. After the mistakes analysis was done, I analyzed the Euro Dollar market in depth, and a short analysis was published on telegram channel (find in bio). A few minutes later, I received a confirmation of a sell signal and opened a trade. Further it was closed on a take profit level and covered the loss.
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Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance.
You could lose some or all of your initial investment. Do not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Educate yourself on the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial or tax advisor if you have any questions.
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Past performance is not indicative of future results.