ATFX Market Outlook 25th June 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 25th June 2025

Ceasefire Boosts Risk Appetite as Powell Urges Patience on Rate Cuts

Market HighlightUnder pressure from U.S. President Trump, the fragile ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran took effect on Tuesday. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told lawmakers that tariff increases this summer could begin to push inflation higher, marking a critical period for the Fed’s consideration of rate cuts. All three major U.S. equity indices rose by more than 1% on Tuesday, with the Dow up 1.2%, the S&P 500 gaining 1.1%, and the Nasdaq climbing 1.4%.

After the ceasefire, U.S. Treasury yields fell to seven-week lows and weak consumer confidence data boosted rate cut bets, weighing on the dollar. Despite Powell’s comments on rising inflation, oil’s drop lifted the euro and yen, with the euro hitting its highest since October 2021.

Gold prices plunged as much as 2% intraday, hitting a more than two-week low, as the ceasefire dampened safe-haven demand. Spot gold closed down 1.3% at $3,323.75 per ounce. Crude oil fell 6% to a two-week low, as the ceasefire reduced concerns over supply disruptions in the Middle East.

Key Outlook

In today’s Asian session, focus shifts to Australia’s May Weighted CPI, after last month’s higher-than-expected reading signaled slower disinflation and weakened the case for immediate RBA rate cuts. Markets currently anticipate cuts in August and November, but a stronger CPI print today could delay those expectations. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Powell continues his Congressional testimony, and BoE Governor Bailey is also due to speak, keeping central bank guidance in the spotlight.

Key Data and Events Today: 

07:50 BoJ Summary of Opinions ** 

22:00 US Fed Chair Powell Testimony *** 

22:00 US New Home Sales MAY **

22:30 EIA Crude Oil Stock Change ** 

Tomorrow

19:00 BoE Gov Bailey Speech *** 

20:30 US GDP QoQ Final Q1 ***

20:30 US Core PCE Prices QoQ Final Q1 ***

20:30 US Durable Goods Orders MoM MAY**

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ***

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1664 / 1.1695

· Support: 1.1571 / 1.1533

EUR/USD extended gains on Tuesday, briefly touching 1.1641, driven by broad USD weakness. Technically, the pair has broken above a key descending trendline and is now consolidating above 1.1600. As long as it holds above the 1.1571–1.1533 support zone, bulls may aim for a continuation toward 1.1664.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3663 / 1.3694

· Support: 1.3563 / 1.3532

GBP/USD rallied to 1.3648 on Tuesday, its highest level since January 2022, supported by improved risk sentiment. Technically, the pair remains within a rising channel and is now testing the upper region. As long as price holds above the 1.3532–1.3563 support zone, further upside toward 1.3663 remains likely.

USDJPY

  Resistance: 146.03 / 146.80

· Support: 143.56/142.79

The USD/JPY slid 1% to 144.68 amid easing geopolitical tensions, which lifted safe-haven demand for the yen. The price has broken below its ascending trendline and is now testing key support. Failure to reclaim 146.03 could expose further downside to 143.56.

US Crude Oil Futures (AUG)

· Resistance: 67.83/ 69.20

· Support: 62.12/ 61.02

Crude oil prices plunged 6%, with WTI falling to $64.37, as easing tensions between Israel and Iran reduced geopolitical risk and supply concerns. Technically, WTI has broken below the $67.83 support level and is now at risk of further downside toward the $62.12–$61.02 demand zone if it fails to reclaim the lost ground.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 3354/3373

· Support: 3293/3274

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 36.38/36.60

· Support: 35.44/35.27

Spot gold fell 1.4% to $3,319.96, as easing geopolitical tensions reduced safe-haven demand. Technically, XAU/USD rebounded from the lower Bollinger Band near $3,293 but remains capped below the mid-band resistance at $3,355. Unless price decisively reclaims this zone, downside risk persists, with Bollinger Bands continuing to indicate bearish momentum.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 43310/43447

· Support: 42844/42666

The Dow Futures rose 1.19% to 43,089.02, marking a second day of gains on improving risk sentiment. Price broke above the mid-line of the Bollinger Bands and is now testing the upper band near 43,311. If it holds above the 42,844–42,666 support zone, the bullish momentum may extend toward the 43,447 resistance area.

NAS100

· Resistance: 22347/22537

· Support: 21900/21748

The NAS100 climbed 1.43% to a record close, driven by easing geopolitical tensions and Powell’s steady tone. Technically, the price broke above the falling wedge and resistance, confirming bullish momentum. If it holds above the 21,900–21,748 support zone, the uptrend may extend toward 22,347 and possibly 22,537. Failure to hold above 21,748 would invalidate the breakout and reintroduce consolidation risks.

BTC

· Resistance: 108778/110610

· Support: 102961/101153

Bitcoin hovers near $106,400 after breaking the resistance level near $102,961. The price remains within a descending channel, with key resistance levels at $108,778 and $110,610. While the upside persists, the $92,000 CME gap still poses a downside risk if support fails.

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