Analysis For 24th April 2017: The WTI Crude Oil market fell significantly during the session on Friday, cracking below the $50 level. If we can continue lower, and break below the bottom of the daily range, oil markets could find themselves dropping somewhat significantly. Ultimately, this market looks as if it is going to continue dropping, and because of that bearish.
There’s a lot of noise near the $47.50 level, so not necessarily that were going to break down drastically. Rallies this point in time should be selling opportunities, and with that being the case it’s only a matter of time before you short of the market. As far as buying is concerned, you would need to see some type of impulsive candle to convince that the market is going to go higher. Right now, we don’t see it.
WTI spot has rallied at 0.5% this morning, partially unwinding Friday’s 2% sell-off in both it and Brent. A Macron victory in France has reduced uncertainty, but an OPEC/non-OPEC working group recommending an extension to the production cut deal has probably had the greater influence.
The reality is though that the world is awash in oil, and the Baker-Hugh’s Rig Count’s mandatory rise on Friday for the 14th consecutive week shows that U.S. shale isn’t going away at these levels. Barring supply disruptions or geopolitical events, and with shale producers still heavy futures sellers on any rally, sustained rallies could be difficult ahead of late May’s OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting.
Today WTI spot trades at 49.88 with resistance at 50.00 and support at 48.50, its 200-day moving average.
Oil markets were subdued on Monday, with Brent struggling to maintain US$50 per barrel as efforts led by Opec to tighten the market were undermined by persistently rising US production.
Brent crude oil futures briefly rose above US$50 per barrel in early trading, but had dipped back to US$49.94 by 0040 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate futures were at US$47.69 a barrel, weighed down by ongoing climbs in US production.
Investors continue to doubt the ability of Opec to rebalance the oil market, with crude oil prices remaining under pressure amid further signs of rising US oil production.
Amazing drop on WTI oil during today's session. The commodity has fallen from the 48.00 level, breaking below the 47.00 level and reaching the 46.00 level where we can find a 76.4% Fibo retracement on the daily chart. That zone of the 46.00 level could act as support for WTI oil, but the bearish momentum is still in place.
Oil recovery may lead to risk-reset in the markets and yield a steeper treasury yield curve and a strong US dollar. Thus, the GBP / USD pair may end the week below the 50-week MA if the oil recovery gathers steam.
On the other hand, a fresh sell-off in oil would yield a flatter yield curve and keep the dollar bulls at the bay, thus helping the GBP bulls defend the weekly 50-MA support.
Hello, Open at 46.2. I expect 46.6 to 47 to be reached around Monday 3rd noon time. A move down below the 46 area would probably change this forecast, but I expect price to go straight up off the open.
Based on my trading tools and slight knowledge of the market, a few years.
From July 2nd to July 12th +-
Let's expect crude to reach 49.50 or so. A move below 45 would change things, however I don't expect it. So that would be a 100tick SL to 300 tick TG from the open at 46.2.
However It is not recommendable, better take several longs along the way if they happen with few-tick stop losses as the plan might be invalidated.
Got something interesting here. This model I made is kind of telling me we have a potential 5tick stop loss for a 60 tick objective. as picture suggests we are at 46.91 So SL would be 46.86. it is 7.10 eastern time
Basically it shouldnt go below the first blue line. Watch your charts.
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