EURUSD Analysis thread (Ongoing)

GM. Happy trading today :)

I think pair may lift up after the improvement in US employment figures.

I am bearish EUR all the way. EUR is a risk currency and with current risks to global economy I can only see downward pressure on EUR

Shootinggrass posted:
EUR is a risk currency

Only EUR?

EURUSD - 13/12/2021 - Missed my target of 1.12 on the sells but still looking like solid downward momentum after hitting the new upper trend line at 1.135.

Anyone who saw the retest should have had a nice little scalp.

Still the same story as last week really:

- covid surge in Europe bringing lockdowns for Christmas.
- FED and BOE looking at policy tightening as ECB wants to ride out inflation.
- Russian troops at Ukrainian border.
- Nord Stream looking to be scrapped thus raising questions about Europe’s energy security.

Moving forward I’ll be watching the central banks monitory policy meeting on Wednesday with ECB meetings on Thursday being another one to gauge the markets.

All in all I’ll probably be going off the technicals and looking for sells with a 1.18 goal.

If we test the uptrend line again and we break through will have to reassess and wait for res to be found.

How you guys feeling about the new upper trend line? Anyone got any bullish ideas? :)

Very busy week for both EUR and USD news so could see some decent drivers to decide medium term direction into the new year.

If you look back on the monthly timeframe, the trend long term is a downtrend, but this months price move is still on the range daily
short term trading scalping still profitable in this condition

10/01/2022 - EURUSD weekly analysis.

Well here we are crabbing it slightly to the upside.

Technically we look like we may be gearing up for a break down from a wedge pattern with 1.135-1.136 being strong res.

I can’t see us breaking this week but sells from the said res may be profitable and setup for a break out to the lower side.

On the fundamental front:

- FED looking to tighten tapering due to inflation.
- ECB being conservative on monetary policy even though rising inflation.
- Covid continues to slow down economic recovery.

If we were to think bullish we would have to see the 1.136 res broken and settled above for me to buy but with how nonplussed markets were on the low NFP data I can see a continuation to the downside for now.

How do you guys think this is playing out? Any reasons to be bullish?

24/01/2022 - EURUSD weekly analysis.

All eyes on next week’s Federal Reserve meeting as EURUSD continues to meander upwards with no real big moves.

EURUSD failed to break out to the upside and now at the lower end of the slight uptrend.

The same story continues with ECB slow on monitory policy and FOMC gearing up for Wednesday.

Main thing I’ll be looking out for is the FOMC on Wednesday, I’ll be looking out for a hawkish fed to support the dollar and hopefully see us continue down on EURUSD.

A hawkish FED might be priced in so if any tighter policies are enacted we may see a bump to USD.

Also with the current Ukrainian crisis we may see the EUR take the brunt of it which will also support the dollar (would rather not see this scenario play out).

All in all I’m looking at the sells but will be watching the FOMC outcome live for any deviations.

What are your thoughts on EURUSD? How do you think Wednesday’s FOMC meeting will pan out?

Any update after the last week blood?

07/02/2022 - EURUSD weekly analysis.

Bit of an upset to the downtrend with previous 1.145 level being tested again, but will it push above.

It seems like a hawkish ECB has finally given the EUR a bit of a pump and this week we may see if a higher low can begin an uptrend or if this is mainly a slight upset on our way to a 1.12 EURUSD.

The FED remains more aggressive in its stance with the way better than expected NFP results coming in to quash EUR gains.

Looking to this week, unless we see more from ECB we might se the dollar comeback with Thursday CPI to really watch out for on a quiet calendar.

I’m mainly seeing if we hold here at 1.145 and looking for a test of the 1.14 to see next move.

ECB announcement may of been a wild card or a signal that the downtrend has truly run out of steam.

Where do you see us going? Are we finally out of this downtrend?

It has created equal highs which are a target for me normally but I would want to see a clean break of structure above them to confirm bullishness.

The resistance looks strong at this level.

Tough one to call with the Russia situation likely to strengthen USD. From a technical perspective I think we look bullish on the daily now.

To be honest, I’m so much bullish on EURUSD trading pair in 2022! Last year was for the bears, but right now the scenarios are different, I basically do my trading based on technical facts, according to my chart, this year will be full of green!

ForexViking69 posted:
GM. Happy trading today :)

According to the daily trading chart, right now I’m a short term buyer on EURUSD trading pair, I opened a buy trade on 1.1175 level & my TP area is 1.1445 level!

Technically it looks solid tjough with the ongoing Ukrainian situation it could turn bearish pretty quickly

Jungle78 posted:
Technically it looks solid tjough with the ongoing Ukrainian situation it could turn bearish pretty quickly

Expecting huge crush because of the current war! But technically (based on technical analysis) I am bullish on EURUSD (long term).

07/03/2022 - EURUSD weekly analysis.

I probably don’t have to say it but we are currently in a black swan event.

Sanctions have been implemented against Russia for the unprovoked invasion of Ukraine and more are on the way.

The EURUSD has fallen due to uncertainty over the war and we are more than likely to see more downside as we continue.

The ECB and other central banks were having to deal with inflation already and looks like it will be a lot harder from now on.

EUR will take the brunt of the panic but most likely we’ll start to see the US affected by the squeeze on commodities.

All in all the countries closer to the conflict will be affected more leaning me towards the downside for the pair.

All eyes will moss likely be on the war and fundamentals will play a large part in how the markets move now.

For now, it’s sells for me but there will be a time when it will turn around.

P.S. Sell the Ruble.

 Slava Ukraini!