Forex is chaos, but you can overcome chaos

Apr 16, 2012 at 06:40
Przeglądane 2,708
38 Replies
Uczestnik z Apr 14, 2012   26 postów
May 18, 2012 at 04:15
No arguments but always blabla
The market always wins, be a part of it
Uczestnik z Aug 25, 2010   3 postów
May 18, 2012 at 18:49
Why not acknowledge his point on the 85% DD? :>)

Don't end the day losing, the day can be stretched past 24 hours.
Uczestnik z Aug 25, 2010   3 postów
May 18, 2012 at 18:51
😇
Don't end the day losing, the day can be stretched past 24 hours.
Uczestnik z Apr 14, 2012   26 postów
May 19, 2012 at 06:29

   bobby10354 posted:
   Why not acknowledge his point on the 85% DD? :>)



What should I acknowledge ?
1. It was a DD of 80 %
2. The lot size respectively the starting risk was planned according to the resistance lines for worst case scenario.
3. In this calculated worst case scenario (which happened indeed, and little bit more) a drawdown of about 3500 Euro (70%) was planned.
4. Look to my real accout with low risk setting, which started some weeks ago, I was never confronted with such a DD
The market always wins, be a part of it
TheCyclist
forex_trader_28881
Uczestnik z Feb 07, 2011   724 postów
May 19, 2012 at 22:38
That day will come mate.

We're not seeing anything major at the moment. There was no attempt from your side to do anything to mitigate the risk that was building.

It might take some time on the low risk setting, but you will wipe out. Put it for you here today in writing. Losing money is one thing, but losing the time is quite another, you can never get that time back. Doesn't help to make money for 2 years you think you got it and then you wipe out. 2 years gone, just like that.

Unless you deal with your risk you will wipe out.
TheCyclist
forex_trader_28881
Uczestnik z Feb 07, 2011   724 postów
May 19, 2012 at 23:07
At 50:1 you can not run a fat tail mean return successfully in markets with these ranges.

Just ask JP Morgan. They've just been reminded again.
Uczestnik z Apr 14, 2012   26 postów
May 20, 2012 at 15:40

   TheCyclist posted:
   That day will come mate.

We're not seeing anything major at the moment. There was no attempt from your side to do anything to mitigate the risk that was building.

It might take some time on the low risk setting, but you will wipe out. Put it for you here today in writing. Losing money is one thing, but losing the time is quite another, you can never get that time back. Doesn't help to make money for 2 years you think you got it and then you wipe out. 2 years gone, just like that.

Unless you deal with your risk you will wipe out.

Some weeks ago the fat tail should kill me in a few days....... now it should kill me within 2 years....... blablabla...... where is the fat tail?.... vanished..yeah it is now part of my equity :-)
you don' t understand anything...... in reality you have no idea how the system works...... but if I'm wrong... please tell me something about the rules of the automated system....
when increases the system trading positions?
when the system stop to increase position?
when does the system decide to hedge?
why does the system accumulate at certain times trading positions?

To write some blabla is one thing...... why should my chance 50:1? ...... blablabla....... but I want to help you to understand a little bit with one question:
Do you think that the value of GBP or USD will become zero or could show infinite growth or could jump by 50% in one day?

Use your time for thinking instead of writing so many useless comments
The market always wins, be a part of it
TheCyclist
forex_trader_28881
Uczestnik z Feb 07, 2011   724 postów
May 20, 2012 at 23:23
You run a fat tail mean return. The rules doesn't really matter, the characteristics are self evident.

Your tester came within 100 pips of being margin called. In a few weeks. The smaller trade sizes is what saves your live account, but in the end the same problem will get you.

The market ranges are simply to big for a system of this type to survive with any leverage.

Mate you can bullshit yourself, but you can't bullshit me. I been at this to long. Take your time, wipe out. Then we talk again.

Uczestnik z Apr 14, 2012   26 postów
May 21, 2012 at 03:52

   TheCyclist posted:
   You run a fat tail mean return. The rules doesn't really matter, the characteristics are self evident.

Your tester came within 100 pips of being margin called. In a few weeks. The smaller trade sizes is what saves your live account, but in the end the same problem will get you.

The market ranges are simply to big for a system of this type to survive with any leverage.

Mate you can bullshit yourself, but you can't bullshit me. I been at this to long. Take your time, wipe out. Then we talk again.



As always..........blaablaablaaa...... no arguments, no answers to my questions......
'the characteristics are self evident'...... blaaablaaablaaa...... how can youknow the charactaristic of a system without knowing the rules on which it is based?
'Your tester came within 100 pips of being margin called'.....blaablaablaa... in reality Alpari doesn't make margin calls

By the way, how big are the market ranges?.....about which time scale are you talking? minutes, hours, days,weeks, years or centuries? ......... blaablaaa.....

For my opinion you have no experience and knowledge about the subjects you are trying to talk in this forum, sorry, otherwise you wouldn't write such senseless comments
The market always wins, be a part of it
TheCyclist
forex_trader_28881
Uczestnik z Feb 07, 2011   724 postów
May 21, 2012 at 04:35
Because I have 100's of those in my EA dustbin.

How can a market range have a time scale anyway?

As for my experience...this is fairly typical:








TheCyclist
forex_trader_28881
Uczestnik z Feb 07, 2011   724 postów
May 21, 2012 at 04:44 (edytowane May 21, 2012 at 04:55)
My comments come from the ability to do high volumes of trading via one very expensive API. Not new at this as I have said.

No fat tail waste of time mate. Either you understand what you have there or you don't. If you don't then time will teach you, but there is no mastery over the chaos in what you do.

It's simply a fat tail mean return which will fail in due course for the reasons I have already outlined.
TheCyclist
forex_trader_28881
Uczestnik z Feb 07, 2011   724 postów
May 21, 2012 at 05:07 (edytowane May 21, 2012 at 05:15)
But I can see there's nothing I can say to convince you you're not half as clever as you think you are, so I be back when you wipe out, then we can discuss fat tails like adults.

But I suspect you'll be even more defensive by then, so I guess we won't...

Uczestnik z Apr 14, 2012   26 postów
May 21, 2012 at 09:54

   TheCyclist posted:
   My comments come from the ability to do high volumes of trading via one very expensive API. Not new at this as I have said.

No fat tail waste of time mate. Either you understand what you have there or you don't. If you don't then time will teach you, but there is no mastery over the chaos in what you do.

It's simply a fat tail mean return which will fail in due course for the reasons I have already outlined.

Blaablaablaaa......'How can a market range have a time scale anyway?'........... Is the market range the same in a range of 1 minute compared to the range of one century?....... your arguments are simply ridicolous.
The market always wins, be a part of it
TheCyclist
forex_trader_28881
Uczestnik z Feb 07, 2011   724 postów
May 21, 2012 at 10:41 (edytowane May 21, 2012 at 10:47)
Yet I'm not the one running a fat tail. You are.

To comment on your trading other than fat tail I'll have to go do some work. I'll have to come up with facts and figures, we'll fight about it for a while. You'll block me because you can't see it and don't like a challenge and quite frankly it's just not worth that much effort.

You run a fat tail, you're buggered. Deal with it.
Uczestnik z Apr 14, 2012   26 postów
May 21, 2012 at 12:05

   TheCyclist posted:
   Yet I'm not the one running a fat tail. You are.

To comment on your trading other than fat tail I'll have to go do some work. I'll have to come up with facts and figures, we'll fight about it for a while. You'll block me because you can't see it and don't like a challenge and quite frankly it's just not worth that much effort.

You run a fat tail, you're buggered. Deal with it.

Blaaablaaablaaa............. LOL
The market always wins, be a part of it
TheCyclist
forex_trader_28881
Uczestnik z Feb 07, 2011   724 postów
May 21, 2012 at 12:43
We'll see...
Uczestnik z Mar 20, 2011   3 postów
May 24, 2012 at 07:09

   Master_of_Chaos posted:
   

   TheCyclist posted:
   Yet I'm not the one running a fat tail. You are.

To comment on your trading other than fat tail I'll have to go do some work. I'll have to come up with facts and figures, we'll fight about it for a while. You'll block me because you can't see it and don't like a challenge and quite frankly it's just not worth that much effort.

You run a fat tail, you're buggered. Deal with it.

Blaaablaaablaaa............. LOL

good EA
is that free EA??
MAN JADDA WA JADA
Uczestnik z Apr 14, 2012   26 postów
May 25, 2012 at 03:39

   amang posted:
   

   Master_of_Chaos posted:
   

   TheCyclist posted:
   Yet I'm not the one running a fat tail. You are.

To comment on your trading other than fat tail I'll have to go do some work. I'll have to come up with facts and figures, we'll fight about it for a while. You'll block me because you can't see it and don't like a challenge and quite frankly it's just not worth that much effort.

You run a fat tail, you're buggered. Deal with it.

Blaaablaaablaaa............. LOL

good EA
is that free EA??

No, it is not a free EA. The EA is programmed by myself
The market always wins, be a part of it
Uczestnik z Apr 14, 2012   26 postów
Jul 21, 2012 at 09:44
After 6 months I'm back now, and the result speaks for itself, the profit is about 80 % and the 'fat tail' is still alive and changed the direction several times to earm the money. And during earning money 'the tail' partially protects itself with hedge orders in the opposite direction. And all this the tail did fully automated.
What a bad EA cyclist, isn't it ?

The market always wins, be a part of it
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